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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 12/27/22

March Wheat - Steady


March Corn - 1 to 2 Lower


March Beans - Steady to 1 Lower


I had a question about moving averages today. It is not that I think they are meaningless, I simply never found a way to incorporate them with my style of looking at the markets. I never knew which bar number to use - 20 day, 50 day, 100, 200 - do you use a simple average or an exponential one?


In fact they do matter because a lot of the crowd (traders) use moving averages to find the trend, where support and resistance is, etc. Therefore, if you have them on your charting software, try them out to see what you think? - you can always keep them running in the chart background or test a particular moving average.


I was taught a specific methodology near the start of my career which I use some of to express what I see in the charts. I probably asked my mentor a million questions as I was learning - "what about this line, what about that part of the chart, etc? Finally he conveyed what I was after - EVERYTHING matters. This is very sobering because it is easy to get lost down the rabbit hole of techniques available to analyze charts.


Every bar on the chart matters, every line matters, every bump, every straight run, etc. The difficulty is finding the tools which helps the farmer or trader make sense of what they are looking at. People have discovered a myriad of ways to see markets. The trick is finding the analysis which makes sense to the observer.


Thank you for the question. If anyone has questions, please don't be shy.


March Wheat made progress today even though it only gained 1 penny. Small details matter sometimes. Wheat rose above and closed exactly on the line that I marked for the top part of the triangle it's trying to rise above. Today's price action on the 15 minute chart (open lower, then rally) gives the impression that wheat wants to stay above this line. Check out what I marked on the 8 hour chart here and below, the spike and ledge higher action on the 15 min.



The March Corn chart rallied 7.75 cents to 674, above that 670 level, to match some old highs on the chart as it also moved up to another trendline. It may be due for a small intraday correction back down to the 667.50 area, which is the trendline it moved to on Friday. Check this out.


March Soybeans shot straight out of the gate this morning to rally up to 1522.75, which is the bottom of the gap from June 21st. It's taking care of business. Remember it has to close above that gap to rise to our 1700+ targets.


Today marks an important chapter to achieve the gap today. The next phase is closing the gap. Support is now between 1480 and 1469 - I marked a small oval grey area you will see on the bean daily chart below.


The daily March Soybean oil chart closed it's gap and settled directly on the top of the gap. This is important uptrend progress. You'll see what I mean on the updated chart. It may be due for a small backfill in here. 64.85 is support.


March Soybean Meal is still consolidating sideways.


February Crude Oil made it almost exactly to the 8 buck swing measure target today on it's high, closing just below it at 79.87 up just 31 cents. Support is still around the 78 level, but I'm not sure it will sell to there.


Steady uptrends usually do not correct a bunch, they kind of act like stairstepping, never giving the would be bull an entry because they're looking too far down to get in. 84 -85 is the target above. Here is today's crude chart.




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