Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 12/22/22
March Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher
March Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
March Beans - 1 to 2 Lower
Not so fast in the March S&P market. The bulls were unable to follow through on their buying again today. Instead, the bears took prices all the way down to Monday's low (big2 terminus), taking out thousands of sell stops before reversing up about 68 points from the low - closing down 56 on the session.
We may be marking a double bottom today in the S&P, but I need to see tonight's trade - bottom line - the bears have not given up. Here's today's double bottom. See what you think.
One more important detail in the S&P - the option prices are relatively cheap. This state of affairs is usually indicative of a stable, balanced or bull market. When there is a lot of fear in stocks, the options become very pricey. I'm not seeing this second scenario.
March Wheat backed off a little today, closing down 6.75 to close at 761. As long as trade stays above the up trending line on the chart, the new buyers should remain in control.
The new 660 support level held nicely for today's March Corn contract. The fund buyers should make another run tomorrow - let's see. 670 or higher remains to be the swing measure target on the 2 hour corn. Check out today's chart.
The most recent up trendline (1470) held support in March Soybeans today. It's marking higher lows and is still characteristic of a wound up market that's creeping higher and up & out of it's 10 day range. This trendline support is marked on the 4 hour chart.
Here is the updated continuous Soybean Oil daily chart. It is continuing a solid uptrend after that key reversal up 8 trading days ago. The bottom of the midpoint gap provided resistance yesterday but today's selling was muted because support lies close below. You can see it on the daily chart below - that swing high just beneath 65.00
Below is the Feb Crude oil chart zoomed in a bit from yesterday. Even though it sold off to below our new support at 77.86, it managed to close above it at 78.20. This price action tells us the fund longs are still in control. A rally to the 81.50 level or higher is still the most likely scenario.