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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 12/1/22

March Wheat - 2 to 3 Higher

March Corn - 1 Lower

Jan Beans - Steady to 1 Lower

Sometimes a sell stop area is also a good place to enter a trade. Trading can be a paradox like that - plain tricky. You try to determine where support is, then place the stop a little bit below that.

My hypothetical trade with a breakeven stop would be filled with the morning low of 780.50 - it is a close call, but this is probably still a good buy trade. In times like this a market participant has to make a decision after seeing the price action tonight/tomorrow, whether to get back long or not.

What I would say is that Monday's low of 773.25 should still be good support. However, because the lower triangle line failed to hold price, the August low of 760.25 still looms below and there is some possibility of moving down there. Final answer - let's see how today and tomorrow shake out. Here is a blowup chart for March Wheat - see what you think.

The soy complex went crazy today with Dec Meal up +3.50 on the day , almost breaking out and up from the triangle, and Jan Soybean Oil down the limit. Jan Beans was down over 40 cents to 1425.25 for the low. 1422 then 1409 is lower support for Jan Beans. Here is the updated Jan Bean chart, zoomed in some.

A note about tomorrow's soy complex trading session - Due to soybean oil closing down the daily limit today, the entire soybean complex will have expanded limits tonight through tomorrow. Soybean limits are $1.50, soybean oil 7 cents a pound, and meal $45 a ton.

Sometimes a market will have a first (fake) breakout from a triangle, then retrace back down through it again before the actual breakout - this also applies in March Wheat - we simply have to see what happens tomorrow.

March Corn also sold off a few cents to test the bottom of the small triangle near 660. Support is at 657, then 653. I want to see if corn can close back up into or above the small triangle tomorrow. Weekly closes in general are always more important than daily closes, when trying to determine direction and sentiment. Also here is a zoomed in March Corn chart.

Jan Crude Oil nailed the first resistance level at 83.34 before backing off - the upsloping blue line. Near today's high was a good chance to exit for a swing trade and wait for a correction for another entry. From here, we could have a 3 dollar pullback or backfill as much as 7 or 8 bucks. If crude intends to mark an inverted head & shoulders the correction could be as low as 76. This is really turning out to be a wait and see kind of day.

Check out the updated chart.

I have added more lines to these charts so you can familiarize yourself with how markets behave relative to trendlines. However, the neckline on Crude was the only added line today.


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