Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 11/8/22
Dec Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
Jan Beans - 1 Lower
Dec Corn sold down below the lower channel line today closing at 666.75, but I think it is a fakeout to the downside. I expect 660, which is the July 10th high, to hold support If it needs to sell some more. Below is the updated corn chart:
As Roger had mentioned the USDA pre-report guesses are a bit bearish so the grains are all selling off beforehand - then they are all likely to rally after the report tomorrow at 11 AM CST.
Dec Wheat is flirting with the August 8th high of 820.75 down below - this level should be good support. See today's wheat chart:
The oilseed complex faired the best for the bulls today with Jan Beans only down a smidge and Dec Meal virtually unchanged marking an inside narrow range day - narrowist of the last seven days (NR/ID7) with a Doji. The meal range was only 5.7 today.
If you will remember, when a market paints an ID/NR7 daily bar it means the likelihood of a breakout (one way or the other) tomorrow is high - and I believe the odds say higher trade for a number of technical reasons. Check out today's Dec Meal chart:
Dec Crude Oil Update: 88.66 marks crude's low today and this is within the margin of error with regard to the 90 support level - it is always a ballpark estimate, as unfortunately, chart analysis is usually not an exact science - the traders love to overshoot targets because that's how they get the maximum number of traders on the wrong side! Oil should be able to rally from today's lows. Please see the updated crude chart here:
The US Dollar had a follow through selling day marking a new low for the move at 109.24. This is the area where at least some support should show up(triple low), but to what extent we can get a rally here is unknown. This is a moment of truth for the Dollar, as the fund buyers will have to be exceptionally strong at this level to make a big reversal higher. My bias is resistance at 100.26 and soon we find out if a major weekly top is confirmed.
It seems to me the Dec S&P already completed Big #2 (correction down) in the Elliot wave counting, and Big3 (up) has begun. Where I had A marked previously now appears to be a complete A-B-C (Big2). I have re-counted these details on the chart, and it now is more likely that the next rally has begun from last weeks low. I heard some news that the equity traders like the high odds of the government being split with the GOP probably controlling the legislative branch after tonight, so they are buying big.
Here is today's Dec S&P 2 hour chart. You can go back a few days in the comments if you want to see the counting difference on the previous chart.