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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 11/17/22

Dec Wheat - 4 to 5 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady Eddy

Jan Beans - Steady to 1 Lower

The US Dollar corrected upwards a small amount today. It was up +440 to 106.592 with the high being 107.140. First resistance will be at the Sep 13th low of 107.45 and the next higher resistance would be at 109.240. A correction is healthy for the trend in any market - it allows the market to catch it's breath and collect more energy for the downtrend, in the case of the Dollar. Here is the daily Dollar static chart so you can see where these areas are, relative to the rest of the chart.

What is also noteworthy on the daily USD chart is that it has already met the first objective down at about 105. Let me explain - You measure from the high in late September to the swing low in early October and this is roughly $5.00. Then you add $5.00 on to that low of about $110.00. This equals $105.00 which is close the the low made 2 daily bars ago. Neat how that works!

I have very little opinion on how high the USD will rally/correct up. However, this is a strong downtrend and lots of times a market just needs to go sideways for a while - time spent is just as important as amount of price for a correction so we'll keep a look out and see what happens.

Both Dec Corn and Wheat traded in fairly wide ranges today - remember the theme of volatility. Dec Corn traded in a 13.5 cent range today closing very near the high, up +2.50 to 667.75, while Dec Wheat marked a range of about 25 cents closing near the middle of that range - wheat ended down about minus 11 cents on the day. These 2 markets are showing us a glimpse as to how the energy is about to be released with their large whipsaw moves back and forth. Take a look at the blow up chart of Dec Corn showing only the last few days and the back and forth corrective action.

Today Jan Soybeans took out the Nov 10th low at 1410.5. Therefore instead of a head & shoulders pattern, beans marked a well structured a-b-c corrective pattern with today being down -c. There is still significant up pressure on this chart. Take a look.

I have been just plain wrong with the Dec Crude Oil analysis. It has traded all the way down to the Oct 18th low at 81.30. However I am fairly certain this will act as good support - therefore, crude is trading in a large range between 81.30 on the low side and 93.60 on the high end. It was difficult to tell if the fund buyers showed up today - looking at the intraday oil charts. I did not see any significant volume spikes that could potentially show me buying activity. We will have to see how the week ends.

From 11/15 comments regarding the S&P. "The correction should terminate somewhere between 3926 to 3870." Today the Dec S&P sold off to 3912.50 right on the 8:30 pit open and rallied the rest of the day to a high of 3967 for a range of 54.5. The most likely scenario moving forward is an up b wave, which happening now, and another corrective leg down - c wave, before another big up leg begins.

Check out today's chart.


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