Tech Guy Early Opening Calls & Comments 2/15/23
March Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher
March Corn - 1 Higher
March Beans - Steady to 1 Lower
The gaps were closed in the soymeal contracts, but I don't think they were exhaustion gaps because this rally has been orderly and stair stepping-like. Exhaustion gaps tend to occur after a feverish straight run up or down.
Instead I believe March Bean Meal may need to test the most recent up trendline marked on the daily chart here. The close was 490.90 today and support comes in around 483.
1533 support in March Beans did not produce buyers, but the 1520-1517 area did. Soybeans tested the primary up trendline today which began last October at the 1375-1380 level. You can see this line on the 8 hour bean chart right here.
I was wrong about the particular details of the March Wheat correction yesterday. A recount was needed. The current up leg has produced 4 waves so far, 2 up and 2 down backfills.
You will see on the wheat chart the swing high labeled with a (25) just above it. This level was the end of the 1st wave. The next up leg was (42) cents and it is the 3rd wave higher.
Often times the end of the 4th wave (down) will terminate near the top of 1. There is a red line moving across the (25) high to the right, intersecting with today.
The area from this red line down to the blue up trendline labeled with (support) should contain prices - the buyers will most likely defend this area. The other thing we know is that the 2nd leg up was bigger than the 1st leg up. This tells us wheat is expanding upwards. Notice the (42) on the upper swing high to the right.
Because 42 is about 1.62 X 25, the next up leg should be more than 42 - between 1.38 & 1.62 X 42. This gives us a target range of about 825 to 840. Check out the updated March Wheat here.
The constricting motion is continuing in March Corn after it tested the highs of the range yesterday. Said differently, the ascending triangle contained in the expanded right shoulder is continuing to mark higher lows and I do not expect corn to sell all the way to 670.
Take a look at the updated March daily corn chart again and count the succession of 4 higher lows, including today. It still should eventually break upwards from the ascending triangle at the 688-689 level.
The March S&P is continuing another leg up (3) within 5, after completing the #2 correction. Check out the updated chart.