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Tech Guy Comments for 8/18/22

I have a family commitment at 6 pm CDT tonight so we will leave out opening calls. Sorry for the inconvenience.


Roger was correct about the wheat having more selling off to do, with the December contract selling 32.5 cents today. I was way off with the 752 area in the Sep contract. However the timing might not be off by much.


The trading volume today was so huge in both the Sep and Dec Wheat contracts and with a spike down and back up, that it looks like a capitulation. Watch for a possible reversal back up tomorrow in the December wheat (I am rolling to Dec). I am sticking my neck out again but this is what it looks like - highest probability. The low today was 743.25. If it buys back up to 778, watch out above.


December corn showed a lot of indecision today - it worked higher but not by much with wheat being a heavy anchor thrown overboard.


Sep and Nov Soybeans managed to breakout to the upside today as anticipated, but here again with a somewhat muted response with Sep only gaining about +20 on the day. I suspect also that soybeans could not help with it's sympathy for the poorly performing wheat contracts.


The Sep/Nov soybean bull spread worked higher today by about 5.5 cents. The strength here is an argument for continued higher prices in the Sep contract and to a lessor extent in Nov. Sep beans will pull along Nov.


Sep Crude Oil finally had a big up day today buying up about $3.00 to about 90. I am sticking to my story about Heating Oil (Low Sulphur Diesel) - about the low being in place and that prices should continue trending higher. I don't know for sure if Tuesday's low in Crude's will hold absolutely but if it does this will also support continued higher prices for Heating Oil.


The measuring gap in Dec Cotton has stayed open for 4 days now. If it stays open tomorrow it will be a confirmed mark (midpoint gap) for Cotton to rally up above 135.