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Tech Guy Commentary for 5/11/22

No opening calls due to a previous engagement tonight. Here are my comments:


Tomorrow is the grain production report. Anything can happen and the trade will be more volatile (bigger price swings). That being said, July Corn and Beans made higher highs and higher lows today with corn gaining +13.25 and beans +14.50 cents - this is constructive to our bullish outlook and lends more confidence to the idea that Monday May 9th was a solid swing low.


Bottom line: we will have more important data after the trade sorts out the report tomorrow.


July Wheat gained +20.25 cents today and is stair stepping to possible resistance around 1147. I say possible because wheat may be too strong for 1147 to stop it. We will have to see how it reacts when it gets there.



Referring to the earlier post about grain cycles/intervals - Monday was 38 days/39 days in July Soybeans and Corn, since the last swing point around March 31. 38/39 days counting forward puts us out to June 16-17 for a time target on the next probable swing high.


June Crude Oil update: Oil was stronger than imagined and bought up to 106.44 today. 105 did not stop it. It could back fill to the 103-102 area before heading up to the 111-112.


Overall, June Crude has been trading in a slightly upsloping channel since April 11. The lows are marked by 93, 96, 98, The highs by 109, 111 and 112 upcoming. Will 112 turn the market down for a correction or will Crude gradually push higher to the 117 area? Will wait until Thursday's close for more clarity on the chart.


A note on Low Sulphur Diesel - In March the chart tested the 2008 highs (4.0000) then corrected to about 2.8500. Since this low, Diesel has been stair stepping (higher highs and lows) back up above 4.0000. It looks like a steady bull market that is more likely to continue higher above 4.0000


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