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Rain Days & Tidbits 01/27/2022

Western Kansas areas received more than two feet of snow yesterday. Very good news for those farmers.

This morning Brazil's Mato Grosso do Sul cut its soybean output to 11.4 million mt, down 5.7% the previous report and 13.8% below a year ago despite 7% more bean acres. Those farmers have sold 39.74% of crop, 21% less than a year ago.

Soybean crushing margins are very strong in Brazil, thus, not nearly enough beans are going to the ports. FOB basis at the ports is skyrocketing at Paranaguá and Santos as the ship line-up is already for 10 million mt of beans and 1.6 million mts of meal and it increases every day. Looks like more need for US bean exports.

A Minnesota grain elevator in the Red River Valley is offering new crop soybean fall delivery basis at 30 under the November (-30X). Normally, that elevator is 60 to $1.20 under the November. The only reason that elevator is offering such a firm basis is because they can sell those beans on such an unusually firm basis to Cargill, ADM, Bunge, Dryfus, Gavilon, CHS, etc. These are the people who know what the crushing and export books are looking like in the fall harvest. My goodness, that is bullish soybeans.

Corn basis at the Gulf yesterday was 5 cents firmer for January, unchanged for Feb/Mar/Apr. Processor bids unchanged to 3 cents weaker, but ethanol plnt corn bids unchanged to 3 cents firmer.

Soybean basis at the Gulf was 3 cents firmer in January, 4-5 cents firmer in February, 4 cents firmer in March, but unchanged for April. Processor bids are mostly unchanged.

Corn futures in China settled at $11.09 yesterday.

On Nov 12 February NOLA barge urea was $833 per short ton.

Yesterday February NOLA barge urea was $485.

A pig’s kidney was successfully transplanted into the body of a brain dead man at the University of Alabama and it produced urine for three days before the live support was turned off. The team expects to transplant a pig kidney in a live person within a few months.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but continue to say rates will probably increase "soon".

IHS Markit estimates 2022 US corn acreage at 91.489 million, down from 93.357 million in 2021; they see soybean acres at 87.8 million, up from last year’s 87.195 million. Their wheat numbers are 48.2 million total compared to 46.7 million last year. They see 34.4 million winter, 1.8 million durum and 12.0 million spring wheat.

An ocean seafarer manpower crisis is looming unless governments and ship managers take steps to allow more shore time and improve conditions onboard ships. Covid restrictions have made ships prisons where the inmates have to work 12 hours a day. The 2021 Seafarers Happiness Index released yesterday shows seafarer happiness levels have reached an all-time low, driven by the extra strain of spending months aboard ships without any shore time as COVID restrictions require they stay on board.


 

Last week:

Broiler egg set was up 1% than the same week a year ago.

Broiler egg hatch was down 2% than the same week a year ago.

Average daily ethanol production:

1,035,000 barrels last week.

1,053,000 barrels the previous week.

933,000 barrels the same week a year ago.

1,029,000 barrels the same week two years ago.

Ethanol inventory was 24.476 million barrels compared to 23.592 million barrels the previous week. Producing less ethanol and the inventory increasing 900,000 barrels is quite bearish, but one week does not make a trend.


 

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) Crude oil is down 32 cents at $87.03 this morning.

The Dollar Index is trading at 96.80, up a huge 0.85. That will make it difficult for corn, wheat, and beans to be higher today unless buyers of US grains expect the dollar is in a long term uptrend, in which case they will be buying way ahead of immediate needs before the dollar gets even stronger.

Indonesia’s Trade Minister said palm oil exports need to be reduced by 20% to meet domestic demand.

March palm oil is at 5,647 MYR, up 155. A new contract high was made today at 5,662 MYR. Yesterday's action saw a new contract high at 5,511 MYR. Palm oil has 32% and soyoil has 28% share of the world vegetable oil market.

March cotton is down 75 cents per cwt at $121.58. The contract high was made last Wednesday and Thursday at $124.78. Cotton competes with soybeans for acres.

March Natural Gas is up $0.061 at $4.097 per Metric Million Btu. The contract high was made October 6th at $6.132 per MMBtu. Natural gas is the primary input cost of nitrogen fertilizer.

March Oats are down a quarter cent at $6.57. The contract high is $7.78 made November 22nd.


 

Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received 0.4 inches of rain yesterday; none a year ago and 0.1 inch two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 92°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 80 to 91°F (100°F = 38°C).

Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 96°F with 0.3 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 88°F with 0.6 inches rain. Salto high temperature 88°F with 0.4 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.20 inches 78 to 93°F. Cordoba 0.75 inches 73 to 91°F. Salto 0.09 inches 76 to 93°F.

The Eastern Corn Belt has 1 less rain day in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Western Corn Belt has 1 more rain day than yesterday.


Explanation of Rain Days
 
Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued.
 
By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities we have never heard of.
The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.
 
We look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, we record a "4" and that is what is reported to you. It does not matter whether if it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize the amount of rain is incredibly important expect a few key days of the growing season, which we keep you informed.
 
Below is the link for the ten-day forecast for Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. At this moment, it predicts rain 10 of the next 10 days. Thus, this morning, we wrote a "10". Of course, we scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm. By the time you click on this link, the number of days expected to see rain very well may be different than now.
 
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/ICAMPO37


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