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Rain Days & Tidbits 01/24/2022

NATO said this monring it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing Eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets in response to Russia's military build-up at Ukraine's borders. NATO is headquartered in Brussels.

Severe heat continues in Rio Grande do Sul since January 13.

The first crop corn harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is 27% complete; 9% harvested is the historical average. No word on yields other than poor.

S&P Global Platts reported a few hours ago China is seeking more US soybeans for Oct-Nov shipment and has already booked huge volumes from the US for the fourth quarter the past 2 weeks. Platts say lower soybean crop production in Brazil and Argentina is the main driver in this buying “frenzy”.

China hoards liquefied natural gas (LNG) as it does food supplies and periodically offers a portion for public auction. Today, China sold only a fraction of the LNG it was offering, which indicates natural gas prices worldwide may be ready to decline.

China has 39 aircraft, mostly fighter jets, near Taiwan, the largest show of force in months, at same time the U.S. Navy has two aircraft carriers groups and a pair of amphibious assault ships alongside allies in Philippine Sea. China last did this in October during a similar US operation.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) Crude oil is down 41 cents at $84.73 this morning.

The Dollar Index is trading at 95.84, up 0.02.

March palm oil made a new contract high today at 5,509 MYR; last trade is 5,405, down 49 MYR from Friday's settlement. The previous contract high was made Friday at 5,460 MYR. Palm oil has 32% and soyoil has 28% share of the world vegetable oil market.

March cotton is up 76 cents per cwt at $121.51. The contract high was made Wednesday and Thursday at $124.78. Cotton competes with soybeans for acres.

March Natural Gas is down $0.046 at $3.736 per Metric Million Btu. The contract high was made October 6th at $6.132 per MMBtu. Natural gas is the primary input cost of nitrogen fertilizer.

March Oats are up 12 cents at $6.35. The contract high is $7.78 made November 22nd.

Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received 0.1 inch of rain yesterday; 0.1 inch a year ago and 0.2 inch two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 95°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 84 to 96°F (100°F = 38°C).

Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America:

Santa Maria high temperature 110°F with no rain.

Cordoba high temperature 75°F with 1.0 inch rain.

Salto high temperature 83°F with 0.9 of an inch of rain.

Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days:

Santa Maria 1.33 inches 81 to 99°F

Cordoba 3.36 inches 77 to 90°F

Salto 1.55 inches 77 to 90°F

The Eastern Corn Belt has 1 more rain day in the 10 day forecast as yesterday and the Western Corn Belt has the same rain days as yesterday, which would be one.

Explanation of Rain Days

Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued.

By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities you and we have never heard of.

The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.

I look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, I record a "4" and that is what we report to you. It does not matter whether if it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize the amount of rain is incredibly important, but given the way rain falls in scattered amounts and the weather forecast usually changes, recording the amount of rain for each of the ten days is not good use of my time or yours to even read it. It all averages out in the long run.

Below is the link for the ten-day forecast for Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. At this moment, it predicts rain 10 of the next 10 days. Thus, this morning, I wrote down a "10". Of course, I scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm. By the time you click on this link, the number of days expected to see rain very well may be different than now.


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