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New Crop Plan, Tidbits & Rain Days 01/30/2022

Now that old crop corn and soybeans and new crop soft red winter wheat hit our selling price last week, all of you folks want to know what the plan is for new crop corn and beans and hard red winter wheat.

We will continue to analyze every week the seasonal trend, fundamental and technical outlook to determine where or when we will recommend you price new crop corn, beans and hard red winter wheat.

Since we do not know if there will be war in the Black Sea area, nor size of the South American crops nor the numbers of acres to be planted in the USA, nor the Corn Belt spring weather, etc, we have no target as such at this time.

We could say December corn at $6.20, but by the time December corn gets to $5.95, it may be obvious that $6.20 is way too cheap or very unlikely to be attained. Thus, week to week, Folks, week to week. If everything is normal into June, we expect December corn in excess of $6.00, probably to $6.50 and November beans in the $15 area.

We expect that when we recommend pricing new crop corn, beans, and hard red winter wheat, that will be the time to price remaining old crop corn and beans and buy put options on your previous old crop sales. We do not expect that to occur on corn and beans until May at the soonest with normal weather and world events. We expect to recommend pricing new crop hard wheat before March 10th.

Get your ducks in a row to be ready to buy put options. You must have a brokerage account to trade options. You need to select a brokerage firm & a futures and options broker. You can trade options without trading futures. Once you pay for the option, there will never be a margin call as your risk is limited to the cost of the option. You can read Part One of our All About Options at:

One of the keys to a successful option account is to have a broker who will not lie to you to generate commission. Select a broker who is recommended by someone you trust. No one at Wright on the Market is a futures, option or cash grain broker.

USDA reported export sales Friday morning of:

264,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China; 141,514 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico; 251,500 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown destinations.

Late this past week, it was revealed Russia demanded a guarantee from the USA and NATO that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO. Joe Biden says he told Putin: "No, that will guarantee will not be made."

Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance (SSGA) members who export Identity Preserved grains and oilseeds continue to have major difficulties getting the equipment they need to fulfill their orders due to a continued lack of shipping containers, carrier cancelations, delays, and rising freight rates and fees. Many containers bringing consumer goods to the US continue to be sent back overseas empty instead of being sent inland where ag processors have supplies ready to be shipped overseas. SSGA, based in Mankato, Minnesota, reported their members are able to ship just 40% to 60% of their orders.

An unexpected benefactor of the threat of a Black Sea war is the rising soybean price. The Black Sea area supplies a tremendous amount of the world’s vegetable oil in the form of canola and sunoil (sunflower).

The Egyptians aren’t worried about war in the Black Sea area. On Friday, Egypt purchased 420,00 mts of Black Sea wheat for March shipment. Freight dropped $4 per mt since their last tender, Black Sea March wheat futures are down contract $17 per ton since the date of the last Egyptian tender, but the FOB offers are down only $9-10 per ton. So, futures down $17, but cash price down just $9 to $10; basis firmed $8 to $10 per mt. Since basis is a measure of local supply & demand, the firming basis means the Black Sea area is running out of wheat. That has a lot to do with last week’s US weekly wheat sales being a marketing year high at 676,700 mt.

With the Black Sea wheat deal done Friday for March shipment, clearly the ocean ship and freight insurance companies are not worried about war in the Black Sea. You can bet the farm they know better than any one except Putin. Unless shooting breaks out today, it is reasonable to expect palm oil and, thus, soybeans somewhat lower this evening. Don’t panic. We are long way from determining how small the soybean crop is in SA and it certainly will get smaller.

It is estimated by people who should know there are about 20 million mt of old crop wheat and 21 million mt of old crop corn to be shipped from Ukraine and Russia.

Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received 0.9 inch of rain yesterday; 0.2 inch a year ago and 0.7 inch two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 80°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 77 to 91°F (100°F = 38°C). Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 90°F with no rain. Cordoba high temperature 87°F with no rain. Salto high temperature 91°F with no rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.33 inches 84 to 98°F Cordoba 1.21 inches 73 to 91°F Salto 0.66 inches 79 to 97°F

The Western Corn has one less rain day than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has two fewer rain days than yesterday.


Explanation of Rain Days
Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued.
 
By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities we have never heard of.
The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.
 
We look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, we record a "4" and that is what is reported to you. It does not matter whether if it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize the amount of rain is incredibly important expect a few key days of the growing season, which we keep you informed.
Below is the link for the ten-day forecast for Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. At this moment, it predicts rain 10 of the next 10 days. Thus, this morning, we wrote a "10". Of course, we scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm. By the time you click on this link, the number of days expected to see rain very well may be different than now.
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/ICAMPO37

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