Market Commentary for 6/16/25

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on June 13, 2025

The June USDA report is typically one of the least exciting reports of the year, and this year’s was no exception as it offered few new insights. The trade will now wait for the biggest report of the year on June 30th when the stocks and planted acreage is released.

Corn: 

Corn can’t seem to catch a break. The USDA report wasn’t bearish, but the market took it that way. There are many variables in the market right now that I’m watching that could determine if corn is leaning more bullish or bearish.

Reasons to Be Bullish Corn

• The US corn crop is not made in the month of June

• Corn’s export pace is approaching a new record

• Current carryout levels are in the “snug” range

• Global ending stocks continue to be lowered

• Corn prices are substantially below the breakeven point for farmers

• Old crop basis values continue to increase in most areas

• Brazil continues to expand their corn for ethanol use

• China’s domestic corn values are higher than imported prices

• US corn delivered to Asia is competitive with Brazil

• Wheat is starting to price itself out of feed rations in the southwest

Reasons to Be Bearish Corn

• The US corn crop is not lost in the month of June

• Planting pace was normal on the whole throughout the US

• Drought conditions are currently limited, and don’t appear to be growing

• Brazil’s second corn crop continues to get bigger

• The July / December futures inverse spread collapsed

• Farmers still have an estimated 20% of old crop to market

• There is too much sorghum left in the southwestern corn belt

• No trade deals have been made

• Corn struggles to rally on any positive news

• Corn used for feed could be overstated by the USDA

Soybeans:

This week, beans had a massive basis drop from one of the largest crushers in the US, and futures still didn’t drop much. This morning the Trump Administration released their proposed renewable fuels blending requirements, and they look very positive for soybeans moving forward.

These are variables I’m watching in beans.

Reasons to Be Bullish Beans

• The proposed renewable fuels volume targets look positive for the next 2-3 seasons

• June weather doesn’t impact bean production much

• Planted acres are down year over year, and may go even lower in the June acreage report

• China’s import forecasts remain at record levels

• Beans struggle to trade lower on any negative news

• Brazil’s currency is going up vs the dollar, which encourage exports from the US

Reasons to Be Bearish Beans

• Brazil had a massive bean crop this year

• The huge basis decline caused by one large crusher

• World stocks are increasing

• Carryout remains ample

• Concern that Chinese demand is overstated

• Farmers seem to still have quite a few beans left to market

Bottomline:

It is difficult to know which direction the corn market is headed, but beans look positive after the biofuel proposal was released. 

Tariffs, politics, war, and weather are hard enough to predict individually, but trying to navigate all of them at the same time is impossible. The next 2 months are usually some of the most volatile times in the market.

Jon Scheve

Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

9358 Oak Ave

Waconia, MN 55387

jon@superiorfeed.com