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Jon's Market Commentary, Free Storage 12/19/22

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on December, 16, 2022

Over the last two years La Nina decimated parts of South America’s corn and bean production. This led to beans rallying $1 per bushel and corn rallying 50 cents each year at the end of December and into January. That is why the market is closely watching weather forecasts, because La Nina is still present and could impact their growing season. Preventing The Use Of “FREE” Storage Once again “free” storage is being advertised throughout the corn belt. While some also call it “price later opportunities,” “delayed pricing” or “DP” it refers to when farmers sign over their grain to an end user or commercial facility, and then wait to price the grain later, hopefully at higher values. On the surface, “free” storage seems like a win-win for farmers and end users or buyers. These “free” storage programs are a great way for end users to procure grain supply during the winter. And farmers can move their grain now when they are not busy, and price later during a potential rally. Unfortunately, “free” storage ends up costing ALL farmers, those using it and those that do not. Why Does “Free” Storage Hurt All Farmers? When end users offer this program, it is usually because they are having difficulty procuring enough grain to meet their immediate needs. Typically, “free” storage offerings spur a rush of quick ship grain and helps end users get through a month or two of difficult origination. However, this ultimately keeps basis prices artificially lower than the bids end users should be willing to pay for grain right now. In other words, why would end users push their basis bids up when they are getting plenty of grain delivered? How Much Are Prices Impacted? Basis level suppression from “free” storage could be 10-20 cents in an average year, but it might run higher depending on local conditions. For example, last year there were production issues in central Missouri and North Dakota, and basis values after harvest in those areas were 50 cents higher than normal. Similarly, this year the southwestern part of the corn belt experienced a lot of dry weather, and basis values there were $1 per bushel higher than normal. Why Do Basis Levels Fluctuate So Much? Basis usually goes up when farmers quit selling because they either run out of grain to sell or they think prices will go higher and hold their grain. Therefore, end users need to incentivize grain movement and sales to their facility by increasing basis. Conversely, end users will then decrease basis bids when there is plenty of supply available. This means when farmers are not using “free” storage programs, end users need to increase basis values to entice farmers or commercial facilities to move grain. Those higher bids mean increased prices for ALL farmers in that area and potentially the surrounding areas. But “Free” Storage Offers Several Conveniences to Farmers True, some farmers argue that with “free” storage they do not have to worry about their grain’s condition in the bin or when to move it. Plus, they get the flexibility of being able to sell at potentially higher prices down the road. Again, these conveniences seem good on the surface, but the farmer has actually limited their pricing opportunities. These farmers are now committed to the prices the end user is offering, and that usually means current month basis bids that run at lower values than forward bids. This “forced” discounted price is part of the cost for the "free" storage. Another problem with “free” storage is that when farmers place a sell order on their “free” stored grain, it is usually for a cash price sale. This allows end users to know the price many farmers are willing to sell at, because they can see all the pricing orders that are placed. If many farmers pick the same general price point to sell, end users can fade their basis bids back as that cash price point approaches. This basis fade may only be 2-5 cents, but the “free” storage program just cost farmers in that area a little more money. Just A Few Farmers Using “Free” Storage Hurts All Farmers It only takes about 20% of farmers in an area to commit 50% of their production to "free" storage for end users to procure about a month's worth of needed production. This can bridge end users until the next round of farmer selling, often right before planting season, and suppress prices for all farmers locally. Plus, these lower basis values can trickle beyond the surrounding area and impact farmers in markets further away. Nothing Is Ever "Free" In grain marketing there are always hidden costs. And, for "free" storage programs the hidden costs hurt ALL farmers not just the ones that participate. So, encourage your neighbors to not use “free” storage. Following is a list of what to mention:

  • End users offer it because it is beneficial to them, not the farmer

  • No end user would offer something for free if it did not profit them in some way

  • “Free” storage users contribute not only to price suppression for themselves, but all farmers in the area

  • Using “free” storage means they will be locked into using an end user who knows what price farmers are willing to sell their grain, and could artificially lower prices

  • The minor conveniences they are getting come at a huge cost to both them and YOU

Remember only YOU can prevent the spread of “free” storage.

Jon Scheve Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

9358 Oak Ave Waconia, MN 55387

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