top of page
If You Haven't, Try Our Daily Grain Market Reports FREE for 30 Days!
Jon Scheve

Market Commentary for 10/14/24

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on October 11, 2024


Corn

As I expected, the USDA increased the corn yield this week. Based on conversations I continue to have with producers throughout the US, I still think the yield projection will increase in the November and January reports. I’m anticipating a final yield around 185.

 

The USDA also raised the corn export potential. If the USDA keeps increasing yields, it’s likely export potential will increase too. 

 

The following chart outlines several different yield/export scenarios and how the carryout and stocks/use percentage would be impacted.  

Based on my analysis, it seems likely the corn carryout will be near 1.9 billion. A carryout over 2 billion would likely push values well below $4 for a while. A 1.9 billion carryout probably prevents the market from trading to $3.50 but is probably not low enough to push values back to $4.50. That type of value would require a big export demand increase, most likely from a production issue in Argentina or Brazil over the next 6 months.

 

Another issue that could impact the corn market is declining basis prices. In many areas harvest isn’t 50% completed, which means logistics haven’t been fully tested yet. In areas that are 70% or more harvested, there has been increased pressure on basis values as well as reduced unloading times at end users. 

 

Historically, in 12 of the last 33 years, or 36% of the time, December corn futures have hit the low for the year in November. It wouldn’t surprise me if December futures push below the low of the year at $3.85 one more time before Thanksgiving.

 

Beans

The USDA indicated the national yield was not getting bigger. Based on conversations I’ve had with producers I expect the national yield to shrink a little more by the November report. 

 

While many producers have said their corn yields are above average, or even a record, most are saying their bean production looks a little disappointing. Many report just average yields, with a few fields falling 10-20% below normal.

 

This chart shows my current supply and demand estimates with different yield scenarios. Acres, crush, and exports remain the same in my analysis.

I’m not sure yields will decrease more than one bushel per acre though. Regardless, a large yield reduction will be necessary for carryout to be below last year.

 

All of this assumes the US can export more beans this year compared to last year. That could be difficult because South America’s production is expected to be higher than last year. Current weather forecasts for Brazil appear to be favorable for nearly on-time planting and normal yields. Unless there is a growing issue in Brazil in December or January, bean values could struggle.



Jon Scheve

Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

9358 Oak Ave

Waconia, MN 55387

Recent Posts

See All

Kommentarer


Kommentarsfunktionen har stängts av.
bottom of page