Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on May, 20, 2022
For the week:
July corn was down about 3 cents
December corn was down about 17 cents
November soybeans were up over 20 cents
July wheat finished the week down only about 10 cents
Planting Progress Farmers appear to be getting a chance at an open planting window this week, which could allow more total acres of corn to get planted. Right now, the price advantage clearly favors planting corn over beans. The market responded this week by pulling back new crop corn prices and pushing soybean prices higher, but the prices still favor corn. The market is trying to figure out how many corn acres will be planted, especially in the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. With today’s prices, it seems unlikely farmers will take prevent plant over trying to get the crops planted even if it is late. Soybeans Increased Chinese bean purchases during a time of year that does not usually see big export numbers likely also contributed to the old crop soybean price bump this past week. Some in the trade think old crop carryout could get tight and prices may need to go higher to ration demand. The old crop rally is also pulling up new crop values to encourage more acres getting planted. Wheat Wheat prices exploded last Monday from India’s news on limiting exports. However, wheat finished the week lower as the market perceived the export limits may not be as restrictive as originally thought. Additionally, the Kanas wheat tour reported yield potential slightly higher than the market expected. There was news that the United Nations may be brokering a deal to export Ukrainian wheat through Russian ports for humanitarian purposes. There are a lot of doubts that this will happen, but it did raise some concerns for a few market participants and may have contributed to Thursday and Friday’s price pullback. Wheat in the southern US plains as well as the crop in France are suffering from dry conditions, while it is too wet in the northern US plains and Canadian prairies to get spring wheat planted. With these widespread weather issues and Ukrainian wheat still trapped due to the war, wheat prices likely stay strong. High wheat prices should keep corn and beans prices elevated as well. Final Thoughts For the next few weeks, the market will be focused on planting pace and monitoring weather conditions closely to see how many corn acres ultimately get planted. The market seems to be sensing that a large portion of the corn crop will eventually get planted since the new crop corn values have stayed within a 50-cent sideways trading pattern for the last 6 weeks. Soybean prices moved back to the top end of their recent trading range this week, which may buy back a few acres from corn at the last minute in the northern states as their insurance coverage planting deadline approaches on May 25th.
Jon Scheve Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
9358 Oak Ave Waconia, MN 55387 jon@superiorfeed.com