Yesterday afternoon, Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture announced a suspension of export sales of soybean meal and soy oil. Supposedly, the ban on the sales is for a short time until an increase in internal taxes can be implemented. The rumor is the export tax will be increased by 2% to 33%, the same as beans. Anything already booked for export will be shipped.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, “We have conveyed to Beijing that we will not tolerate or allow any country to try to compensate Russia for its economic losses from Western sanctions.” However, he did not answer a question if the United States is ready to impose restrictions on Beijing if it tries to help Russia compensate for economic and financial losses.
During the first ten days of March, Russia exported from its Black Sea ports 700,000 mt of wheat, a record large tonnage for the stated period. The market expects a total of 2.5 million mt of wheat will be exported this month.
US and Chinese officials will meet in Rome to discuss the situation in Ukraine. When?
Germany will allow farmers to plant feed grains in ecologically protected areas to cover the shortfall of imports from Ukraine.
Corn is $11.43 in China, $10.03 FOB PNW*, $9.52 FOB Brazil and $9.34 FOB NOLA**.
Add the freight to China:
PNW corn is $11.12 CIF*** China, Brazil’s corn is $11.20 CIF China, Gulf corn is $11.32 FOB China.
*Pacific Northwest, USA
** New Orleans, Louisiana
*** cost of product, insurance, freight
Basis levels rising at the Gulf & Pacific NW. US corn exports are erasing a very poor start this marketing year due to hurricane Ida, it is bone dry in the Plains, China says they have the worst wheat crop ever, war in Eastern Europe, fuel prices shooting higher worldwide (more biofuel used) & trading an overvalued dollar… Be slow to sell new crop corn and beans.
The chart below shows the world share the Black Sea area has in crop production. Keep in mind, a 5% decline in world production of any commodity will send shockwaves around the world.
Crude oil is at $106.82, up $0.80
The dollar index is at 99.28, up 0.15
July palm oil is at 5,600 MYR, down 350. The contract high was made March, 9th at 6,531 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.
December cotton is at $101.86, down $2.38 per cwt. The contract high was made February, 10th at $106.36 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.
July natural gas is at $4.808, down 0.070. The contract high was made March, 7th at $5.270. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.
July ULSD is at $3.0702 per gallon, down 0.0556. The contract high was made March, 9th at $3.7675. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
Rain Days Update
Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 73°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 86°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 83°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 0.52 inches, 74 to 89°F. Cordoba 0.34 inches, 66 to 90°F. Salto 0.58 inches, 71 to 90°F.
The Western Corn Belt has 2 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 7 more rain days than yesterday.
Explanation of Rain Days
Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued many weather services.
By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities we have never heard of.
The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether or not rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.
We look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, we record a "4" for that location on the chart for the today. It does not matter whether it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize about half the days expected to receive rain never get rain that day, but we must be consistent in what we report each day and every day because rain makes grain a few key weeks of the growing season. Of course, we scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm.