If You Haven't, Try Our Daily Grain Market Reports FREE for 30 Days!

Cause and Effect of El Niño and La Niña Episodes Part 3

This is the third part of the article. Other parts: Part 1 & Part 2


13 August 2020


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS & International Research Institute for Climate & Society


13 August 2020 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: There is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance).


Roger’s Comments: note the sharply declining water temperature since Mid-July. That means a drier than normal late August into the first part of October.


10 September 2020


NOAA issued its ENSO update on September 10th: It has become important because of it impact in Brazil.


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

10 September 2020


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).

In August, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.


The chart of equatorial Pacific Surface temperature:


The chart predicts drier than normal weather for the Corn Belt, but more importantly, La Niña episodes result in below normal rainfall for the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Caterina, Parana and the southern area of the states of Sao Paulo and Motto Grosso do Sul. These areas generally grow one crop each year, However, La Niña brings above normal rainfall where the majority of the corn and beans are grown with corn after beans.


The dry season usually ends the October 4 to 10th. Some years it ends as early as the third week in September or a slate as early November. When the dry season ends and the rainy season begins does not change the acreage of beans, but it does change the acreage of double crop corn. Any further rally of beans due to dry Brazil is foolishness. Corn, well, late soybean planting is bullish corn.


8 October 2020


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS & the International Research Institute for Climate Society


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April).


Roger’s comments:


Note the water temperature of the Equatorial Pacific is well below the minus half degree C threshold to cause La Niña type weather.


Also note the rising temperature in June is what provided the rain in August to save the US bean crop in many areas. The declining water temperature in August gave us the dry weather this harvest season in the Corn Belt.


La Niña means dry weather in the Corn Belt, Eastern Europe, Southern Brazil and the crop areas of Argentina. It also means above normal rainfall in Western Europe, Central to Northern Brazil (where most of the beans are grown) and Australia, where wheat is grown.


Corn Belt temperatures are generally colder in the winter and hotter in the summer where the La Niña causes dryness.


Nothing is 100% and the world weather is influenced by hundreds of things, but this ocean temperature change is the most reliable I have found for a long term forecast.


12 November 2020 ENSO Update:


The National Weather Service (and friends) issued its monthly ENSO report on Thursday 12 November 2020. With the US soybean carryout projected to be a 15-day supply, South American weather from January to mid-March will determine whether we will see $18 beans or the top has already been made.


Their official statement:


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 November2020 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March) and into spring 2021(~65% chance during March-May).


Equatorial Pacific surface water temperature has been well below the half degree C for more than 60 days. That means we are in the midst of a La Niña episode.


La Niña generally provides above normal rainfall for the major soybean areas of Brazil in the central and northern parts of the country and below normal rainfall in the southern crop areas of Brazil and the major crop areas of Argentina as well as the Black Sea areas in Eastern Europe.


While nothing is 100% in this business, certainly the Black Sea area and the southern crop areas of South America have been dry for months and months. Uncharacteristically, the central and northern areas of Brazil have been drier than normal rather than wetter than normal, which caused the planting season to be delayed several weeks last month. It appears the rainfall in the central area of Brazil has returned to normal levels the past ten days. Late planting of beans will not change soybean production, but it will reduce corn production


If Brazil has more or less normal weather, the high in the bean market will be made before December 31st and prices will drop sharply after the middle of January when the market concludes the Brazilian crop is made and it will be a good crop. The high may have been made yesterday, but I doubt it. On the other hand, if La Niña does not bring above normal rainfall to the central and norther areas of Brazil and the bean crop production declines from the current 4,887 million bushels to 4,300 million bushels, we will see $18 beans in January.


10 December 2020 ENSO Update:


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 10 December 2020


Official statement: ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).

La Niña persisted during November, as indicated by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean


The graph of Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures:


Note the water temperature was rising fairly rapidly during November. That means Brazil’s main crop area (north and central areas) will receive less than normal rainfall starting as soon as the middle of December, but no later than the end of December.


However, the rate of the rising temperature slowed significantly the past ten days, which, if it continues to level off, but more than a half degree C below normal, the world weather would return back to La Niña symptoms, which means above normal rainfall for the main growing areas of Brazil, dry weather for Southern Brazil and Argentina.


The current rainy weather the past ten or so days was due to the rapidly falling water temperature in October.


For the complete five-page report, go to:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf


14 January 2021


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 January 2021


Official Statement:


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June).


Roger’s comments: This is the chart of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Surface Water temperature the past twelve months:


This what I wrote last month on the 10th:


Note the water temperature was rising fairly rapidly during November. That means Brazil’s main crop area (north and central areas) will receive less than normal rainfall starting as soon as the middle of December, but no later than the end of December.


However, the rate of the rising temperature slowed significantly the past ten days, which, if it continues to level off, but more than a half degree C below normal, the world weather would return back to La Niña symptoms, which means above normal rainfall for the main growing areas of Brazil, dry weather for Southern Brazil and Argentina.


11 February 2021


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 11 February2021


Official statement:


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June).


Roger’s comments: The chart of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Surface Water temperature the past twelve months. It predicts world weather will continue pretty much unchanged for the next 30 to 45 days.


La NIÑA causes warmer & drier than normal Corn Belt, Southern Brazil, Argentina and Eastern Europe. Above normal rainfall in Australia, Southeast Asia (palm oil), Central & Northern Brazil, Central and Southern Africa. It will bring calm weather on the US East Coast and less than normal number of Atlantic hurricanes.


EL NIÑO causes the opposite of everything above.


This is what I have learned:


The water temperature changes will impact world weather mildly within two weeks and fully 30 to 45 days out.


Rapidly falling water temperatures will bring La NIÑA like weather for a few weeks.


Rapidly rising water temperatures will bring El NIÑO like weather for a few weeks.


If the water temperature is a half degree C below normal for 60 consecutive days, a La NIÑA episode has already begun.


If the water temperature is a half degree C above normal for 60 consecutive days, an El NIÑO episode has already begun.


11 March 2021


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 11 March 2021


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during April-June.


The chart of Equatorial Pacific Surface Temperatures as of very early March:


My threshold for a La Niña episode is 60 consecutive days with the water temperature more than a half degree C below normal. Rapidly dropping water temperature from any level will produce La Niña like weather for at least a short while 30 to 45 days later.


La Niña episodes causes warmer and drier than normal weather in the Corn Belt, Eastern Europe, Southern Brazil and the crop area of Argentina. It also causes above normal rainfall and cooler temperatures in Central to Northern Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia (palm oil producing countries), Southern China and Australia.


The chart above shows the water temperature was more than a half degree below normal since late July 2020. Think what the Corn Belt and Eastern European weather was like from late July... Russia’s winter wheat area went months without any rain. And it has been a “little” wet in the northern area of South America and dry in the southern areas.


Likewise, my threshold for an El Niño episode is 60 consecutive days with the water temperature more than a half degree C above normal. Rapidly rising water temperature from any level will cause El Niño like systems for at least a brief period of time.


El Niño symptoms include cooler and wetter than normal conditions in the Corn Belt, Eastern Europe, Southern Brazil and Argentina’s crop area. It also causes drier than normal conditions in Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil’s central and northern region where most of their beans and corn are grown.


If you take a look at those rain days I have been sending you, you can see a dramatic shift in the number of days expected to have rainfall in all the areas. It is drying out in the northern areas of Brazil (Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul) and getting wetter in southern areas of South America, Russia’s wheat areas.


8 April 2021 official statement:


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 April2021


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral is likely in the next month or so, with an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral during May-July 2021.


La Niña continued during March, reflected by negative sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies, which extended across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


The chart of pacific Equatorial Water temperature the past twelve months:


Roger’s Comment:


I agree La Niña is coming to an end; it has probably already ended. When it ends is not nearly as important for the April to May weather as is what the water temperature started doing the middle of February.


Rapidly rising water temperature, from any level, causes El Niño like weather 30 to 45 days later. Those El Niño like symptoms will continue the same length of time the water temperature was rising. El Niño causes increased rainfall in the Midwest and Southern Brazil, Argentina, Easter Europe and reduced rainfall in Central and Northern Areas of Brazil and all of Australia.


If the water temperatures reach a half degree above normal and stay there for 60 consecutive days, an El Niño episode will be in place. You can see the temperature started rising rapidly the second week of February. March saw abundant rainfall in the Midwest except for the far north areas and Canada. March also saw a decrease in rain days in the Central and Northern areas of Brazil (Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso and Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul) where they are trying to grow a very late second crop of corn in very sandy soil.


The temperature is currently more than three-tenths of a degree above normal with the rate of increase diminishing. The diminishing rate of increase means the amount of rainfall in the Midwest will be somewhat less the next 30 days than the past 30 days, but still above normal as the weather returns to a normal weather pattern, aka ENSO Neutral, if the temperature stays nearly level and less than a half degree above normal.


13 May 2021 Official Statement


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society


ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory Synopsis: La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021).


The chart of pacific Equatorial Water temperature the past twelve months:


Roger’s Comment: The rapidly rising water temperature since mid-February to mid-March is why it has turned dry in the safrinha corn growing area of Brazil, why it started raining in Russia’s wheat areas and here in much of the Corn Belt, most notably Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.


The sharp increase of the water temperature since the middle of April is why many dry areas of the Western Corn Belt and Illinois have been receiving good rains the past week.


Note the temperature is now more than a half degree C above normal. If it stays there for 60 days, we will have an El Niño event with record corn yields in 2021. If it is excessive wet in late July and August, soybeans will have some disease problems.


This information only indicates that for the next 30 to 45 days, we will have average to above average rainfall in the Corn Belt, but the longer the water temperature stays more than a half degree above normal, the above normal rainfall will continue.



Cause and Effect of El Niño and La Niña
.
Download • 1.67MB

Recent Posts

See All