BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights USDA numbers made no sense for beans and, to lesser extent, corn. Basis, spreads and technical factors are our best predictors of futures prices Argentina’s “soy dollar” program bought very few soybeans the first two days of the program as farmers were not impressed with the 300 pesos per US dollar instead of the current (today) 213 pesos for everyone else in Argentina. Farmers, like all people in Argentina, are trying to survive with inflation over 100% per year,

Twenty Minutes after Report was released: May corn down 2 May beans up 9 July CBOT wheat down down 2 July KC wheat down 6 Sept Spring wheat down 11 No change for our longer term pricing recommendations. Question is to ponder: How do we lose 57 million bushels of soybeans in three months and not change the S&D?

Highlights The USDA will issue its April Supply and Demand (S&D) Report today at 10 AM Mountain Time. The expected numbers in million bushels for US and mts for the world are: If USDA throws out a surprise today, it most likely will be a bullish soybean carryover. Why? The USDA took an inventory as of December first and again March first. Every week, USDA reports how many beans were exported and every month, USDA reports how many beans were crushed. So, December first invent

Highlights: Wheat USDA sees US wheat acres at 49.9 million (20.1 million hectares), up 9% from 2022 and 8% above the five-year average. Winter wheat planted area is up 13% at 37.5 million acres, with 26.0 million acres of Hard Red Winter, 7.8 million acres of Soft Red Winter, and 3.7 million acres of white winter wheat. All spring wheat acres will be down 2% from a year ago with Hard Red Spring at 9.9 million acres and durum up 9% to 1.8 million acres. All US wheat inventory

Twenty Minutes after Report was released: May corn up 7 May beans up 26 July CBOT wheat down 8 July KC wheat down 2 Sept Spring wheat...

Highlights The USDA’s domestic corn and world corn carryover projections were both larger than expected. Corn finished the day down 8 to 9¢. The USDA’s domestic wheat and world wheat carryover projections were both less than expected. Soft red winter and hard red spring wheat finished the day down 9 to 11¢. Hard red winter was up 1 to down 5¢. The USDA’s domestic soybean and world soybean carryover projections were both less than expected. Soybeans finished the day up 2

May corn down 2 May beans up 9 July CBOT wheat down 8 July KC wheat down 2 Spring wheat down 7 No change for our longer term pricing...

USDA 2023 Ag Outlook Forum The USDA 2023 Ag Outlook Forum took center stage yesterday, but it was not nearly as important as the market thinks it was. All these numbers, including acreages, will change a lot in the coming months. These numbers are simply the benchmarks from which market analysts will comment on for the next 12 months. One of the two things you need to know is the number of acres expected to be planted. Corn and wheat acres were higher than expected, but the

Highlights Nothing in yesterday's numbers changed our outlook for prices in 2023. On yesterday’s reports, USDA did: Reduced Argentina’s corn crop by 5 million mts to 47 million and left Brazil’s corn crop unchanged at 125 million mt, the net change was pretty much expected. Reduced Argentina’s soybean crop by 4.5 million mt to 41 million and left Brazil’s corn production unchanged at 153 million mt. Raised Australia’s old wheat crop 1.4 million mt, to a record 38 million,

Highlights The US inventories of corn, wheat and beans were all significantly less than expected. That is not only friendly for each of those commodities, but all three being significantly less than expected adds an additional element of bullishness for the group. USDA surprise #1: A 1.6 million acre cut of harvested US 2022 corn acres and a 300,000 acre cut in harvested bean acres. Surprise #2: Corn yields were increased almost a full bushel per acre while bean yields we

Quite Bullish Corn. Friendly Beans. Neutral to a Tad Negative for Wheat. Nothing here to change our longer term recommendations. Note: These bullish bean numbers are going to buy a lot of beans from farmers in the US and SA. Every week the past year, we showed you the soybean season trend is down from the middle of January to first week in February and it is because the market is pricing-in the Brazilian soybean crop.

After Friday’s normal closing time, CBOT will not reopen until Monday evening in observance of MLK. Highlights The USDA will dump a truck load of numbers at 10 AM Mountain Time today. We do not expect any big surprises, but if there is one (or more) surprise, we expect it will be bullish in the form the USDA will say the US grain inventory is less than the market expects and/or the South American crops are smaller than expected. Any bearish news will be a gift opportunity for

Tidbits The biggest surprise on yesterday’s monthly USDA S&D was there were no surprises. The only change on the domestic wheat S&D was the national average price for wheat expected to be paid to US farmers this marketing year was lowered 10 cents to $9.10. Perhaps someone should point that out to the wheat futures traders with Spring wheat futures in that $9 area, but KC wheat about a dollar lower and CBOT wheat $2 lower. The price of corn expected to be paid to farmers was

Expected Numbers Thanks to Justin Lewis KIS Futures | 2401 Exchange Ave Ste E, Oklahoma City, OK 73108 (800) 256-2555 Overall, the report was neutral. World corn carryover was significantly less than expected, while US corn carryover was slightly more than expected.

On or about the tenth of every month, the USDA issues a Supply and Demand (S&D) Report. Below is the S&D for corn issued in September...

Highlights The USDA numbers were very neutral. There were no changes to the national average prices expected to be paid to farmers for corn, wheat or soybeans. The USDA did not reduce corn exports and did not raise Russian wheat production. Big surprise! The UN is negotiating a year long deal for the export of Ukrainian grain and the market actually thinks it will happen and speculators are selling wheat. Big mistake! Russia said it is withdrawing troops from west of the

USDA announced this morning the sale of: 264,000 mts of soybeans to China 198,000 mts of soybeans to unknown USDA Country Numbers: China...

USDA will release its monthly S&D today at noon, Eastern Time. We do not expect it to be a big market mover, but, after yesterday's sell-off, friendly wheat, neutral to friendly beans and steady on the corn. The market expectations are: Corn: Yield at 171.9 bpa (171.0-174.5) and October at 171.9 US carryover at 1.207 billion bu (1.050-1.390) and October at 1.172 billion bu World carryover at 300.63 million mt (289.0-306.0) and October at 301.19 million mt. Soybeans: Yield a

Highlights Yield Report from far west Iowa: I ’d say a good chunk of western Iowa pretty much all of the river bottom corn is subpar. I know you said you can’t seem to find any but we have a lot. Anything that is not irrigated is terrible. Our first field of dry land corn made 38 BPA. Last year the same field made 235. The field we’re currently on did 275 2 years ago. Our field average currently is 115. Our irrigated ground is very good under the water, but the corners e pret

Neutral Corn Positive Beans Negative Wheat USDA announced 8 minutes after S&D was released today that 526,000 mt of beans were sold to China. Normally, those announcements come just after 8 AM Central.