BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights After Wednesday’s less than expected retail inflation report for June at 0.2%, yesterday’s inflation at the wholesale level report for June was 0.1% and the resulting 12 month inflation rate was the smallest in nearly three years. It means the economy has entered a period of disinflation even with a very tight labor market. The run of softer inflation readings will bring an end the Federal Reserve tightening money supply campaign. Lower interest rates will reduce t

S&D Analysis Corn After close study of yesterday’s USDA corn S&D, it was not nearly as bearish as it appeared to us nor as bearish as the market reacted. Old crop corn exports were reduced 75 million, as expected, but feed use was increased 150 million bushels. The USDA is finally coming to the conclusion that when we have the same animal units in a year as the previous year, we will feed the same amount of corn and wheat, That and the 4 bushel yield decline pretty much wipe

One Hour After Report was released: Sept corn down -16 December corn -15 August beans -28 November beans -33 Sept CBOT wheat -19 Sept KC...

Highlights Early yesterday morning, Russians attacked the Port in Odessa, Ukraine largest grain shipping port, with Iranian Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones. Debris from the downed drones set fire to two terminals, including a grain terminal according to Oleh Kiper, head of Odessa Region Administration. There was some “marginal” damage to the grain facility. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) later this morning. The market expects an increase of 0.3% in June. The USDA will issue it

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS model run shifted towards the drier EU model with reduced probability of rain for Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Minnesota. The forecast will change four more times before Sunday evening. The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 197,000 metric tons of old crop soybeans to an unknown buyer. Why was bean oil so strong yesterday? China raised their vegetable oil import projections. That shot Malaysian palm oil futures up 3% as traders

27 Minutes after Report was released: July corn down 8 July beans up 18 July CBOT wheat down 1 July KC wheat down 14 Sept Spring wheat...

Highlights The USDA numbers reported yesterday for the 2023 harvested crops around the world include record large production in just about every country. The USDA is saying the weather will be just perfect around the world this growing season, everybody is getting all the fertilizer they want, the Ukraine corridor deal will remain open, and demand is just terrible because people and livestock are going to cut their consumption by 12% across the board. Now, back to real life.

25 Minutes after Report was released: July corn UP 1 July beans DOWN 4 July CBOT wheat UP 14 July KC wheat UP 34 Sept Spring wheat UP 12...

Highlights USDA numbers made no sense for beans and, to lesser extent, corn. Basis, spreads and technical factors are our best predictors of futures prices Argentina’s “soy dollar” program bought very few soybeans the first two days of the program as farmers were not impressed with the 300 pesos per US dollar instead of the current (today) 213 pesos for everyone else in Argentina. Farmers, like all people in Argentina, are trying to survive with inflation over 100% per year,

Twenty Minutes after Report was released: May corn down 2 May beans up 9 July CBOT wheat down down 2 July KC wheat down 6 Sept Spring wheat down 11 No change for our longer term pricing recommendations. Question is to ponder: How do we lose 57 million bushels of soybeans in three months and not change the S&D?

Highlights The USDA will issue its April Supply and Demand (S&D) Report today at 10 AM Mountain Time. The expected numbers in million bushels for US and mts for the world are: If USDA throws out a surprise today, it most likely will be a bullish soybean carryover. Why? The USDA took an inventory as of December first and again March first. Every week, USDA reports how many beans were exported and every month, USDA reports how many beans were crushed. So, December first invent

Highlights The USDA’s domestic corn and world corn carryover projections were both larger than expected. Corn finished the day down 8 to 9¢. The USDA’s domestic wheat and world wheat carryover projections were both less than expected. Soft red winter and hard red spring wheat finished the day down 9 to 11¢. Hard red winter was up 1 to down 5¢. The USDA’s domestic soybean and world soybean carryover projections were both less than expected. Soybeans finished the day up 2

May corn down 2 May beans up 9 July CBOT wheat down 8 July KC wheat down 2 Spring wheat down 7 No change for our longer term pricing...

Highlights Nothing in yesterday's numbers changed our outlook for prices in 2023. On yesterday’s reports, USDA did: Reduced Argentina’s corn crop by 5 million mts to 47 million and left Brazil’s corn crop unchanged at 125 million mt, the net change was pretty much expected. Reduced Argentina’s soybean crop by 4.5 million mt to 41 million and left Brazil’s corn production unchanged at 153 million mt. Raised Australia’s old wheat crop 1.4 million mt, to a record 38 million,

Highlights Yesterday, Indonesia cancelled a high percentage, perhaps 80%, of the previously issued palm oil export permits for shipment from now into May. The deadly earthquake in Turkey and Syria will disrupt to some extent, perhaps a large extent, sunflower oil exports. The water level of the Mississippi River north of St. Louis has enabled barge lines to increase vessel drafts. More bushels per barge = lower barge freight = firmer basis upriver = higher cash price for you

Highlights The US inventories of corn, wheat and beans were all significantly less than expected. That is not only friendly for each of those commodities, but all three being significantly less than expected adds an additional element of bullishness for the group. USDA surprise #1: A 1.6 million acre cut of harvested US 2022 corn acres and a 300,000 acre cut in harvested bean acres. Surprise #2: Corn yields were increased almost a full bushel per acre while bean yields we

Quite Bullish Corn. Friendly Beans. Neutral to a Tad Negative for Wheat. Nothing here to change our longer term recommendations. Note: These bullish bean numbers are going to buy a lot of beans from farmers in the US and SA. Every week the past year, we showed you the soybean season trend is down from the middle of January to first week in February and it is because the market is pricing-in the Brazilian soybean crop.

Tidbits The biggest surprise on yesterday’s monthly USDA S&D was there were no surprises. The only change on the domestic wheat S&D was the national average price for wheat expected to be paid to US farmers this marketing year was lowered 10 cents to $9.10. Perhaps someone should point that out to the wheat futures traders with Spring wheat futures in that $9 area, but KC wheat about a dollar lower and CBOT wheat $2 lower. The price of corn expected to be paid to farmers was

Expected Numbers Thanks to Justin Lewis KIS Futures | 2401 Exchange Ave Ste E, Oklahoma City, OK 73108 (800) 256-2555 Overall, the report was neutral. World corn carryover was significantly less than expected, while US corn carryover was slightly more than expected.

On or about the tenth of every month, the USDA issues a Supply and Demand (S&D) Report. Below is the S&D for corn issued in September...