BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits, S&D, Soybeans While the current marketing year S&D information presented in yesterday’s monthly report was a non-event, the brain-trust at USDA is really digging deep into the records to explain why they are finding fewer soybeans in the world than their numbers have been showing for the past two years.   The USDA significantly reduced the world carryover for the 2021-22 crop marketing year. After copying the numbers from the USDA website, we thought we had made a mi

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Beans Neutral Wheat 20 Minutes after the report: May corn -1 May beans +3 July CBOT wheat +3.75...

S&D Highlights USDA made slight reductions to the demand side for 2023-24 marketing year for corn, beans and wheat, which increased soybeans carryover by 4 days use to 28 days and wheat by 3 days use to 129 days. CONAB reduced their total corn crop by 3.9 million mts to 113.7 million, the second safrinha crop was estimated 3.1 million lower to 88.1 million. Soybeans were updated to 149.4 million metric tons, 5.87 million lower from last month.

The numbers were: Negative Corn Bearish Beans Neutral Wheat Settlements: March corn -1¢ March beans +4.5¢ March CBOT wheat -13.5¢ March...

Highlights Iran captured an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. A few months ago, a shipload of Iranian oil was seized over US sanctions related to Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran is getting closer to the fighting war. The USA launched more strikes this morning on Yemen's Houthi rebels. Tidbits Hertz will sell 20,000 EVs in its fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars. That is a victory for ethanol.   For the full 12 months of 2023 USA consumer inflation was 3.4%, more than doubl

The numbers are: Bearish Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 29 Minutes after Report was released: March corn -13 January beans -30 March...

Highlights On yesterday’s S&D, the USDA:   Reduced Brazil’s bean crop by 2 mil mts to 161 million mts. Soybean and corn production in Argentina and Paraguay were left unchanged.   Increased China’s soybean imports for this marketing year by 2 mil mts to 102 mil. mts. For the marketing year that ended August 31st, USDA says China imported 100.85 mil mts. It was the first year China imported 100 mil. mts.     Increased Ukraine’s corn production by a million mts to 30.5 million

The numbers are: Neutral corn A tad negative beans Friendly wheat 19 Minutes After Report was released: March corn -2 January beans 2 1/4...

Farmer's Feedback We received this from BJ, a client, early Thursday morning: "The basis situation in NE Iowa is getting fun to watch. I have never seen basis this good in November. Harvest is about 99% done, so very little will be delivered straight out of the field. Today Valero in Charles City, IA sent out a flash bid of $5.20 cash. That is $0.44 over futures! Homeland Energy in Lawler, IA is +.10, now accepts corn up to 19% moisture, and is staying open late and on weeke

The numbers are: Bearish corn Do not panic sell anything. The worst is over. Negative beans Neutral Wheat 27 Minutes After Report was...

Highlights Now that the October USDA report has been issued, we can be quite confident that the futures have made their lows for the year. Soybeans did it on May 31st and corn did it on September 19th. The USDA has lowered yields for both beans and corn four consecutive months. We will get a November production update (yield, harvested acres) from USDA, but there will be no USA production information on the December S&D, just demand changes for USA crops; the USDA will updat

The numbers are: Friendly corn Bullish beans Neutral Wheat 30 Minutes After Report was released: December corn +8 November beans +40...

Highlights The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports! The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,

Negative corn and beans, Friendly Wheat 18 Minutes After Report was released: December corn -10 November beans -16.75 December CBOT wheat...

Tidbits USDA announced yesterday morning China bought 121,000 mts of soybeans. Corn crushed in July for ethanol was 454 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. August corn ethanol crush needs to be 491.9 million bushels to meet USDA’s projection for the marketing year which ended August 31st. That is not likely to happen. The US Census Bureau is the final authority on US food and fiber consumption and exports. Through the first 11 months of the old crop marketing year, Ce

USDA S&D Report Analysis Corn and soybean yields were less than expected and less than last month. Corn and soybean production numbers were less than expected and less than last month. The new crop corn carryover was reduced by one day for the US and unchanged for the world. The new crop soybean carryover was reduced by 5 days to a very tight 21 day supply for the US and the world carryover was reduced by 1 day. The average price expected to be paid to farmers for both co

Better than expected for price outlook of corn and beans. Not so bad for wheat prices. USDA Supply and Demand Highlights for 11 August...

Highlights July’s CPI (inflation at the retail level) was up 0.2% (as expected) and up 3.2% (3.3% expected) for the previous 12 months. Unemployment claims, at 248,000, were 17,000 more than expected and 21,000 more than last week. The Producer Price Index will be released later this morning. It is expected to be up 0.2% for the month of July. Chevron and Woodside Energy are holding talks with unions in a bid to avert strikes at their Western Australia state natural gas faci

The Story of Two Clients Chris and Doug were email subscription clients in May 2022. Both farm in Iowa and both became full service clients of Lance’s in early August of 2022. Chris is not going to renew his subscription. He is very upset with Wright on the Market because markets have gone down and all we do is keep saying markets will go higher. Doug renewed his subscription at once upon receiving the invoice this month. What is the difference? Same emails. Same full serv