BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday morning, the consumer price index for May was unchanged from April and up 3.3% for the past 12 months. Core CPI was up 0.2% in May (+0.1% expected), which was lowest since April 2021. April’s core CPI was +0.3%.   The Federal Reserve announced yesterday afternoon it will hold interest rates steady and pushed out the start of rate cuts to as late as December, projecting only one 25 basis points (one-fourth percent) rate reduction for the year.   China’s ec

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat One Hour after the report: July corn +2 July beans +1 July CBOT wheat -10...

Highlights If you have soft red winter wheat to deliver this summer, you need to set the basis about three weeks before harvest starts in your area. Historically, that is when the basis is as firm as it will get.     Soft red winter July wheat ended Friday at a one month low of $6.27½. All SRW wheat trading volume was a one month high of 280,935 contracts, with July seeing a heavy 131,164 contracts traded. Heavy trading volume on a down day for prices is an indication of stro

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

The numbers were: Friendly Corn and Wheat Neutral to Negative Soybeans 27 Minutes after the report: July corn +9 July beans +5 July CBOT...

Highlights The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced yesterday a tender to purchase 3.3 million barrels of crude oil for October delivery to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a price no higher than $79 per barrel. To date, the DOE has bought a total of 32.3 million barrels of oil at an average price of $76.98.   World crude oil demand is expected to grow less this year than earlier estimates and output should grow faster than previously thought, the U.S.

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation at the wholesale level in March was up 0.2%; the market was expecting the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be up 0.3%. However, there is a credibility problem.   What would you say gasoline prices did in March? Yep, the American Automobile Association (Triple A) reported the price of gasoline in March increased 6.3%. However, the gasoline component of the government’s PPI reported the "seasonally adj

The numbers were: Negative Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 18 Minutes after the report: May corn -3 May beans -5 July CBOT wheat -7 July KC wheat -7 Sept Spring wheat -6 Bottom line, in the past 24 hours, respected agencies reduced South American corn production by 8.299 mil. mts (326.7 mil. bushels).   Details:   CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) released its monthly update earlier this morning. It put Brazil's safrinha corn production at 85.6 mil mts., down 16.75 mil mts from last ye

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits, S&D, Soybeans While the current marketing year S&D information presented in yesterday’s monthly report was a non-event, the brain-trust at USDA is really digging deep into the records to explain why they are finding fewer soybeans in the world than their numbers have been showing for the past two years.   The USDA significantly reduced the world carryover for the 2021-22 crop marketing year. After copying the numbers from the USDA website, we thought we had made a mi

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Beans Neutral Wheat 20 Minutes after the report: May corn -1 May beans +3 July CBOT wheat +3.75...

S&D Highlights USDA made slight reductions to the demand side for 2023-24 marketing year for corn, beans and wheat, which increased soybeans carryover by 4 days use to 28 days and wheat by 3 days use to 129 days. CONAB reduced their total corn crop by 3.9 million mts to 113.7 million, the second safrinha crop was estimated 3.1 million lower to 88.1 million. Soybeans were updated to 149.4 million metric tons, 5.87 million lower from last month.

The numbers were: Negative Corn Bearish Beans Neutral Wheat Settlements: March corn -1¢ March beans +4.5¢ March CBOT wheat -13.5¢ March...

Highlights Iran captured an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. A few months ago, a shipload of Iranian oil was seized over US sanctions related to Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran is getting closer to the fighting war. The USA launched more strikes this morning on Yemen's Houthi rebels. Tidbits Hertz will sell 20,000 EVs in its fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars. That is a victory for ethanol.   For the full 12 months of 2023 USA consumer inflation was 3.4%, more than doubl

The numbers are: Bearish Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 29 Minutes after Report was released: March corn -13 January beans -30 March...

Highlights On yesterday’s S&D, the USDA:   Reduced Brazil’s bean crop by 2 mil mts to 161 million mts. Soybean and corn production in Argentina and Paraguay were left unchanged.   Increased China’s soybean imports for this marketing year by 2 mil mts to 102 mil. mts. For the marketing year that ended August 31st, USDA says China imported 100.85 mil mts. It was the first year China imported 100 mil. mts.     Increased Ukraine’s corn production by a million mts to 30.5 million

The numbers are: Neutral corn A tad negative beans Friendly wheat 19 Minutes After Report was released: March corn -2 January beans 2 1/4...

Farmer's Feedback We received this from BJ, a client, early Thursday morning: "The basis situation in NE Iowa is getting fun to watch. I have never seen basis this good in November. Harvest is about 99% done, so very little will be delivered straight out of the field. Today Valero in Charles City, IA sent out a flash bid of $5.20 cash. That is $0.44 over futures! Homeland Energy in Lawler, IA is +.10, now accepts corn up to 19% moisture, and is staying open late and on weeke

The numbers are: Bearish corn Do not panic sell anything. The worst is over. Negative beans Neutral Wheat 27 Minutes After Report was...

Highlights Now that the October USDA report has been issued, we can be quite confident that the futures have made their lows for the year. Soybeans did it on May 31st and corn did it on September 19th. The USDA has lowered yields for both beans and corn four consecutive months. We will get a November production update (yield, harvested acres) from USDA, but there will be no USA production information on the December S&D, just demand changes for USA crops; the USDA will updat