BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Leaders of foreign countries who sell products to the U.S. markets, are scurrying to prepare to deal with President Trump’s...

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -1 Nov beans -5 Dec CBOT wheat -9...

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat   23 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -4 Nov beans +3 Sept CBOT wheat -1...

Highlights The U.S. Gulf Coast is bracing for the tropical storm Francine. It is expected to become a category 2 hurricane and make landfall in Louisiana this evening according to the National Hurricane Center. Crude oil, natural gas facilities, and barge loading/unloading operations have been scaling back and evacuating some sites.   Francine's track is expected to move up the Mississippi River into Southern Illinois. As it heads north, the winds will slow down to mid-40 mph

Highlights USDA's August S&D report summary: Corn harvested acres down 700,000 to 82.7 million. Corn yield up 2.1 bushels per acre to 183.1. Corn production up 47 million bu to 15.147 billion bushels; corn usage up 70 million bushels. Bean harvested acres up by just over 1 million acres (was the USDA Actual Planted Acres in June wrong?). Where did those acres come from? The USDA reported “prevented plantings” of 2.670 million acres of corn, 775,000 acres of soybeans, and 389,

The numbers were: Friendly+ Corn Bearish Soybeans Friendly Wheat 37 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +4 Nov beans -20 Sept CBOT wheat...

Highlights Farmers and agronomists are sounding the alarm that Tar Spot is becoming quite a problem once again in the far Eastern Corn Belt. We recommend you check your fields as many folks have been very surprised by the intensity of the Tar Spot disease in their corn fields treated a month ago.   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its USA forecast for crude oil demand, although its price outlook for this year and next has been revised down.   The EIA no

Highlights The USDA lowered old corn carryout 120 million bushels below the lowest estimate by increasing feed use and exports both by 75 million bushels each. Old crop corn imports were increased by 5 million so the carryout was lowered by 145 million to 1,877 million bushels.   New crop corn feed demand was also increased by 75 million bushels and exports were increased 25 million. The new crop production increase of 240 million bushels from additional corn acres was more t

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Bearish Wheat 28 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +5 Nov beans +4 Sept CBOT wheat -12...

Marketing Service & Tools Many (most) agricultural marketing services provide information, but make no pricing recommendations. The eight of us at Wright on the Market do the research to provide you seven days a week the facts a person needs to make informed marketing decisions.   We also provide education on marketing tools and marketing history; for 44 years Roger has been a grain marketing consultant and he has done his best in recent years to share that experience with th

Highlights Yesterday morning, the consumer price index for May was unchanged from April and up 3.3% for the past 12 months. Core CPI was up 0.2% in May (+0.1% expected), which was lowest since April 2021. April’s core CPI was +0.3%.   The Federal Reserve announced yesterday afternoon it will hold interest rates steady and pushed out the start of rate cuts to as late as December, projecting only one 25 basis points (one-fourth percent) rate reduction for the year.   China’s ec

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat One Hour after the report: July corn +2 July beans +1 July CBOT wheat -10...

Highlights If you have soft red winter wheat to deliver this summer, you need to set the basis about three weeks before harvest starts in your area. Historically, that is when the basis is as firm as it will get.     Soft red winter July wheat ended Friday at a one month low of $6.27½. All SRW wheat trading volume was a one month high of 280,935 contracts, with July seeing a heavy 131,164 contracts traded. Heavy trading volume on a down day for prices is an indication of stro

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

The numbers were: Friendly Corn and Wheat Neutral to Negative Soybeans 27 Minutes after the report: July corn +9 July beans +5 July CBOT...

Highlights The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced yesterday a tender to purchase 3.3 million barrels of crude oil for October delivery to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a price no higher than $79 per barrel. To date, the DOE has bought a total of 32.3 million barrels of oil at an average price of $76.98.   World crude oil demand is expected to grow less this year than earlier estimates and output should grow faster than previously thought, the U.S.

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation at the wholesale level in March was up 0.2%; the market was expecting the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be up 0.3%. However, there is a credibility problem.   What would you say gasoline prices did in March? Yep, the American Automobile Association (Triple A) reported the price of gasoline in March increased 6.3%. However, the gasoline component of the government’s PPI reported the "seasonally adj

The numbers were: Negative Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 18 Minutes after the report: May corn -3 May beans -5 July CBOT wheat -7 July KC wheat -7 Sept Spring wheat -6 Bottom line, in the past 24 hours, respected agencies reduced South American corn production by 8.299 mil. mts (326.7 mil. bushels).   Details:   CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) released its monthly update earlier this morning. It put Brazil's safrinha corn production at 85.6 mil mts., down 16.75 mil mts from last ye