BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The market reaction to the USDA numbers was bullish for corn and beans. Corn should have been stronger than it was given as the 2024 corn yield was reduced 3.8 bushels per acre.      The USDA pretty much admitted they do not know what they are doing or that they had been lying to us about the corn and soybean inventory.   USDA added 200,000 acres of corn harvested, but cut the yield by a whopping 3.8 bushels to 179.3. The lowest trade yield guess was 181.3.   The b

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat     45 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +13 January beans +23 March...

Highlights Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time. The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the f

Tidbits U.S. inflation  at the retail level increased 0.3% in November, the most in 7 months, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates next week to support job growth. However, the decline in the inflation rate has come to an end and the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% per year is well below the November annual rate of 3.6%.   Yesterday, the Bank of Canada reduced its base interest by 50 basis points (one-half percent) to 3.25%. Just a few months

Highlights The USDA S&D numbers released yesterday were as neutral as can be for soybeans and wheat, but bullish for corn. When Roger saw the corn numbers, he told Olga corn should be up 10 to 15 cents higher. Corn was up 4 when the report was released and it was 5 to 6 higher for the first 15 minutes after the report was released. Late in the trading session, March corn did trade to $4.50 yesterday and settled at $4.49, up 7¼. March corn traded to $4.52¼ on 2 October after m

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat 17 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +4.75 January beans +2.25 March...

Highlights On the November S&D, USDA reduced corn yields by 0.7 bu. to 183.1 bu. and an even bigger surprise was a 1.4 bu. reduction of soybean yields to 51.7 bushels per acre. The soybean yield was lower than the lowest yield estimate by three-tenths of bushel!   Corn yield was reduced for all the states along the Atlantic Seaboard as well as Kentucky down 3.2 bu., Illinois down 1.8 bu., Missouri down 1.6 bu., Nebraska down 1 bu., Iowa and Wisconsin both down 0.5 bu. But Ind

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +4.5 Nov beans +8.5 Dec CBOT wheat...

Highlights Leaders of foreign countries who sell products to the U.S. markets, are scurrying to prepare to deal with President Trump’s...

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -1 Nov beans -5 Dec CBOT wheat -9...

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat   23 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -4 Nov beans +3 Sept CBOT wheat -1...

Highlights The U.S. Gulf Coast is bracing for the tropical storm Francine. It is expected to become a category 2 hurricane and make landfall in Louisiana this evening according to the National Hurricane Center. Crude oil, natural gas facilities, and barge loading/unloading operations have been scaling back and evacuating some sites.   Francine's track is expected to move up the Mississippi River into Southern Illinois. As it heads north, the winds will slow down to mid-40 mph

Highlights USDA's August S&D report summary: Corn harvested acres down 700,000 to 82.7 million. Corn yield up 2.1 bushels per acre to 183.1. Corn production up 47 million bu to 15.147 billion bushels; corn usage up 70 million bushels. Bean harvested acres up by just over 1 million acres (was the USDA Actual Planted Acres in June wrong?). Where did those acres come from? The USDA reported “prevented plantings” of 2.670 million acres of corn, 775,000 acres of soybeans, and 389,

The numbers were: Friendly+ Corn Bearish Soybeans Friendly Wheat 37 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +4 Nov beans -20 Sept CBOT wheat...

Highlights Farmers and agronomists are sounding the alarm that Tar Spot is becoming quite a problem once again in the far Eastern Corn Belt. We recommend you check your fields as many folks have been very surprised by the intensity of the Tar Spot disease in their corn fields treated a month ago.   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its USA forecast for crude oil demand, although its price outlook for this year and next has been revised down.   The EIA no

Highlights The USDA lowered old corn carryout 120 million bushels below the lowest estimate by increasing feed use and exports both by 75 million bushels each. Old crop corn imports were increased by 5 million so the carryout was lowered by 145 million to 1,877 million bushels.   New crop corn feed demand was also increased by 75 million bushels and exports were increased 25 million. The new crop production increase of 240 million bushels from additional corn acres was more t

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Bearish Wheat 28 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +5 Nov beans +4 Sept CBOT wheat -12...

Marketing Service & Tools Many (most) agricultural marketing services provide information, but make no pricing recommendations. The eight of us at Wright on the Market do the research to provide you seven days a week the facts a person needs to make informed marketing decisions.   We also provide education on marketing tools and marketing history; for 44 years Roger has been a grain marketing consultant and he has done his best in recent years to share that experience with th