Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights Suddenly yesterday morning, the market became very concerned about a lack of rain on Canada’s canola crop and Europe’s rapeseed crop. That supposedly was the reason beans traded 42¢ higher yesterday midday. Soyoil traded sharply higher Tuesday and closed above its 100-day moving average. Yesterday morning, the consumer price index for May was reported to be up 0.1% and up 4% from a year ago, the lowest annual gain in about two years. This morning at 7:30 Central,

Tidbits Caixin Media is China's most influential financial media group. The Caixin newsroom is recognized as an unrivaled producer of independent, investigative journalism in China, and an indispensable source of information for investors, business leaders, policy-makers, and academics. Supposedly, the Chinese government has no input into their conclusions and predictions. Caixin Global is Caixin’s English language outlet and it will report the results of its Purchasing Man

Highlights Those traders who are short anything related to grains and oilseeds were buyers yesterday as well they should have been given the drought monitor and the 8 to 14 day forecast for the Corn Belt and Canada. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced she expects to be able to make payments on US debt up until June 5, four days longer than her earlier estimate. While that is good news, it also allows negotiators more time to make demands. Yesterday, negotiators nar

Highlights Talks between top-ranking Republicans and Democrats continue about the debt ceiling. Hawkish (aggressive, forceful) comments yesterday from Federal Reserve Governors Bullard and Kashkari raised expectations for a longer period of high interest rates or even higher rates. The US dollar, with the renewed prospect of higher interest rates, broke out to the top side of its range. Private Brazil Crop Analyst, Agroconsult, raised their projection for the second crop Br

Repeating 2013? Market outlook 2012 was the sixth Corn Belt wide drought since 1900. The other five were in 1934, 1936, 1980, 1983, and 1988. Corn and bean futures made their all-time high trade in 2012. December 2012 corn traded to $8.49 on August 10th and then December 2013 corn traded to $4.10 in October 2013. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/Zcz13/interactive-chart November 2012 beans traded to $17.89 on September 4th. By the fall of 2013, November 2013 beans wer

About pricing under breakeven From Kyle (and much the same from many folks yesterday midday): "Do I contract new crop at a price under my breakeven? I know... I hate to even ask it. I recently talked with a local grain buyer who is now retired and out of the game, so he has no skin in it anymore. He said he would sell all old crop and contract 50% new crop at today’s price. I said "well that's under my breakeven..." His reasoning was Brazil has a stellar crop (every 1 bu los

Highlights Inspections of ships carrying grain from Ukraine resumed after two days of hassle. Russia's Ag Ministry sees Russian 2023 wheat production at 78 million mt, ~9 million mt less than SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) projected yesterday. China will auction-off another 1.5 million bushels of its state reserves of imported wheat on April 26 to keep a lid on domestic prices. China always replenishes its government reserves with imports. Some showers were added to the forecast f

Tidbits JPMorgan posted a $12.5 billion first quarter profit, 52% above a year ago, beating expectations by a wide margin. Managing a banking business is like managing every enterprise. While some banks were failing in the first quarter, JP Morgan was making money hand-over-fist. While rising interest rates destroyed some banks and businesses, others made out like bandits. First Republic, Silicon Valley and Charles Schwab did not hedge their inventory; do you think JP Morga

Highlights Russia announced yesterday it will reduce its oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March, exceeding its...

Highlights There is no consensus as to how many of Argentina's acres were damaged or how many mts were lost. We will get hundreds of reports and estimates in the coming week. The bigger issue is drought in Argentina. Today President Putin will reveal to Russia’s elite his plans of the “military operation" in Ukraine. If he is not pulling out of the wear, his speech will be supportive to prices of everything. Tidbits CBOT May beans gapped higher on the opening last evening, up

Highlights The Nord Stream Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany running through the Baltic Sea, financed by Russia’s Gazprom and several European energy companies. A Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, Seymour Hersh, reported last Wednesday that the Biden Administration decided to damage the pipeline to prevent Russia from boosting its income while reducing the dependence of Western Europe on inexpensive Russian gas. Now, four days later, it appears that

Tidbits More than 150 missles plus an unknown number of Iranian drones hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure yesterday. People in Nigeria are wading through fast-flowing water, holding one another to avoid being swept away. The torrent was, until recently, the East-West Road in Nigeria's Rivers state, the gateway to the nation's oil and gas. Now parts of Rivers, along with large swaths of 32 other states, are inundated by the worst flooding in 12 years. Nigeria is a major crud

Roger, Question What happens to grain if the US falls into a recession; haven't seen anybody say much about it??????? Certainly, in...