BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Andy sent us river depth information from the Soy Transportation Coalition. "For each foot of draft reduction on the river, an individual barge is loaded with 7,000 fewer bushels (200 tons) of soybeans. In certain areas of the river, we are seeing several feet of draft restrictions due to low water. In addition, the lack of water will narrow the shipping channel, which limits the number of barges that can be attached together to form one single flotilla or tow. Dep

Highlights Yesterday was an all-around ugly attitude day for a variety of reasons, none-of-which justified the magnitude of the lower price movement. Rainy season is getting stronger in Brazil.   Good harvest weather in the U.S., which we know it would be last week. China’s economy is not going to get fixed soon enough to maintain demand for crude oil and all other commodities. Crude was down more than $4 at one point for the second consecutive day. Disappointing corn and whe

Highlights OPEC+ will not increase crude oil production beginning October first as planned now that crude oil prices are well below $70 a barrel. The production increase has been postponed until December.      Inflation numbers to be reported today in China are expected to show that annual consumer inflation in China accelerated to 0.7% in August from 0.5% in July, which would be welcome news as China’s fight against deflation continues. Factory product prices were down 1.4%

Highlights On Tuesday, China hit Canada with an anti-dumping probe on canola after Canada imposed 100% tariffs on China’s electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on China’s aluminum. Canola November futures traded down the $45 per mt limit on Tuesday and settled down $23.80. Yesterday, canola stayed above Tuesday’s low, but settled down another $11.20.   Many analysts are saying this could be a trick that China likes to do to drop the prices of a commodity before making a purchase

Highlights Stock markets around the world rebounded Tuesday from Monday’s terrible losses led by Japanese stocks. After losing 12% on Monday, stocks rallied 10.23% on Tuesday for their third biggest daily gain on record.   The Secretary General of the Shiite Hezbollah said yesterday: "Strikes against Israel are being prepared from Iran, Yemen and Lebanon, and they will certainly be carried out. Our joint response will be strong, sensitive and effective. We did not seek milita

Highlights The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said the Fed may be ready to reduce interest in September as recent data added to their confidence that inflation is coming into line with their 2% target. Stock indexes screamed higher on that expectation and the dollar was sharply weaker. The tough-talking face of the HAMAS’ international diplomacy crew, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed Wednesday morning in Iran. He had a major hand in building up Hamas' fighting capacity an

Highlights Expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of the event.   Yesterday, the market was trading a corn yield of 182 (USDA 181) bushels and a bean yield of 54 (USDA 52) bushels and a perfect weather forecast.   The market expected both crops to gain 1% in the good or excellent categories on yesterday’s crop ratings.   The market also traded a Trump presidency and that will cause a trade war with China.   If all those things happen, those events

Highlights In this business, when something unusual happens, such as yesterday’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump, one must consider if that unusual event will affect grain prices.   There are those that think the assassination attempt guarantees Trump will win the election. We are not so sure about that. After all, except for seven states, we already know which states’ electoral votes will go to Democrats and which ones will go to Trump. All the Democrats have to do to

Highlights The flooding on the Mississippi is worse than initially thought. It now looks like the entire Mid-Mississippi north of mile 270 could be closed through the first half of July. Force majeure  is in effect. Beans and corn basis near the river north of mile 270 will probably weaken and basis further away from the river can be expected to firm.   Force majeure is a provision in a contract that frees both parties from obligation if an extraordinary event directly preven

Highlights Weather in the crop areas of North America remains in the world's headline for grains and oilseeds followed by South American weather, Asian weather, then Eastern European weather, and lastly Western European weather. Percentage wise, we estimate 25 to 35% of the  crop areas of the world are experiencing production losses due to weather. The world's weather outlook this morning is for more of the same for the coming week.   If corn and bean futures are not higher t

Why the Ukraine and Russia Conflict Is Important When the shooting stops between Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices will drop substantially because both countries are major wheat exporters. Corn will also decline because Ukraine is the world’s No.4 corn exporter. Lower wheat and corn will drag beans lower as lower wheat and corn prices mean more bean acres.   We talk about corruption in Ukraine because that was a major reason there was a hold-up on the recent approval of more a

Highlights On Friday, Safras and Mercado, a Global Agribusiness of Brazil, reduced their safrinha corn production estimate by 2.99 mil mts to 83.64 mil mts.   USDA’s monthly cold storage report showed the total beef in the freezers was down 4.7% from a year ago and pork was down 11.7% from a year ago with butter supplies up 9% and cheese stocks down 0.6%. USDA monthly Poultry Report showed in April from a year ago: Egg production: down 1% Layers on feed: down 2% Egg productio

Highlights Soybean open interest increased more than 25,000 contracts on Friday's rally. Only one day in the past year (Mid-Feb) was there a larger increase in soybean open interest. More friendly soybean news in today’s Weekly Basis.   While many analysts and cash grain merchandisers are bad mouthing the soybean price outlook because there are no US bean sales on the books to China. However, there have been 890.7 million new crop bushels booked for export and most of those b

Highlights Slovakia is a member of the EU and NATO. Its Prime Minister, Robert Fico, was shot yesterday morning US time by a 71-year-old man. Fico was in critical condition when he arrived at the hospital. He did survive the surgery and was listed in stable condition at last report.   Fico has been an out-spoken critic of admitting Ukraine to membership in the EU, NATO, and military aid to Ukraine. He also opposed liberal immigration policies. He is considered a “nationalist”

Highlights Analysts expect a military operation by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will likely maintain upward pressure on the crude oil market and natural gas to a lesser extent. The peak of hostilities will occur at the beginning of the driving season for Europe and the USA.   Israel announced it will launch an operation in Rafah, a city near the border with Egypt and the last refuge of Hamas among thousands of Palestinian refugees. The attack will begin before May 5th. The

Tidbits Canada just increased the Carbon tax by 23%. Farmers are unhappy. Brazil's Politics Political unrest is growing in many around the world and that includes Brazil, the world’s leading exporter of corn, soybeans, beef, sugar, orange juice, and coffee.     Lula da Silva (Lula) has been Brazil’s 39th President since 1 January 2023. Lula was also the 35th president from 2003 to 2010. He is a leftist politician. His first presidency was marked by the consolidation of social

Highlights Brazil’s soybean basis for export shipment has firmed 92¢ from the end of January to this weekend. At 2¢ under the May futures, the bean basis has never been this firm during April, finishing the last 25% of harvest, and the supply pipeline has always been chock full of soybeans. Not so this year. Where are those 155 million mts of soybeans the USDA sees?     The USA is on high alert and preparing for a possible attack by Iran targeting Israeli or American assets i

Tidbits Agrinvest Commodities report Brazil’s producers are losing money when they sell soybeans, but Brazil soybeans are becoming increasingly expensive. There are more talks about how the US weather pattern could bring more risk premium to the market. Ultimately, it seems that soybean futures have already priced in a larger US ending inventory.   In China, soybean meal inventories are rising as the crushers get back to work after the Lunar New Year. Soybean inventories are

Highlights Yesterday, the market saw some economic reports from Asia and the USA that were somewhat negative; stuff like US unemployment claims were more than expected. Some analysts predicted China’s crude oil demand will shrink and the rest of the world will reduce its demand for crude oil.     And then President Biden, immediately after concluding the 4-hour meeting China’s President Xi, tells the world that China’s president is a dictator.     Crude oil has lost 21% of it

House member Jim Jordan received 200 votes to be Speaker, but needs 217 to obtain speakership as 20 Republicans voted against Jordan. Republican leadership announced the House will reconvene today at 11 AM Eastern to discuss when to vote again. Highlights US retail sales were up 0.7% for September; the market expected a number closer to 0.3%. Industrial production was up 0.3%; the market expected up 0.1%, which are two more reasons the Fed is likely to raise interest rates ag