BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The USDA lowered old corn carryout 120 million bushels below the lowest estimate by increasing feed use and exports both by 75 million bushels each. Old crop corn imports were increased by 5 million so the carryout was lowered by 145 million to 1,877 million bushels.   New crop corn feed demand was also increased by 75 million bushels and exports were increased 25 million. The new crop production increase of 240 million bushels from additional corn acres was more t

Highlights The USDA will issue its July S&D at 11 AM Central time today.   Yesterday morning, the government reported that inflation during June declined 0.1%; the market expected it to be up 0.1% (measured by Customer Price Index or CPI). For the past 12 months, the inflation rate was 3.0%; the market expected 3.1%. The expectation of an interest rate cut in September for the past two weeks capped with yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation number sent the stocks sharply

Highlights Yesterday’s Producer Price Index (PPI=inflation at the wholesale level) for April was up 0.5%. The market expected +0.3%. In March, the PPI was down 0.1%. The Fed has managed to create a weakening economy with high inflation.   Today we get the inflation rate at the retail level with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Market is looking for a 0.4% increase in CPI in April with the year inflation rate at 3.4%.   Yesterday, President Biden announced a bundle of steep tar

Highlights The Commerce Department said yesterday morning the US economy’s gross domestic product increased at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024, less than half the growth rate of the 4th quarter of 2023. The market expected a 2.4% growth rate.     The first quarter growth's pace was below what the Federal Reserve regards as non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%.  It was the poorest GDP since the recession ended after the first two quarters of 2022. This GDP

At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its final 2023 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Inventory as of December 1st, Actual Planted Winter Wheat Acreage Reports and the USA and World S&D.   The market expects slight reductions in 2023 US corn and bean crops, larger corn inventory and a smaller bean inventory than a year ago, with South American production down slightly from last month, and less US winter wheat acres than a year ago. Our mailing yesterday had the

Highlights Yesterday's market action was a classic turn-around  Tuesday action. We hate that phrase because there is no rhyme or reason for it.    The interior Brazil soybean basis is firming. Cash basis traded yesterday in Sorriso for Feb delivery at -290H (290¢ under March futures). That basis was at -380H a few weeks ago.   Kory Melby yesterday morning: "Tough week ahead for MT (Mato Grosso). Rain comes Dec 21 or so. But the below normal Nov and Dec totals will catch up wi

Highlights On Friday, Iraq said it wants OPEC+ to cut oil production at OPEC’s November 26th meeting. Some speculators covered their massive short positions Friday ahead of a weekend uncertainty, but crude was down 4% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. Confresha is a municipality in northeast Mato Grosso. From October first through the 10th of November in 2022, Confresha received 16.8 inches (427.8 mm) of rain. During the same calendar days in 2023, the Confres

Highlights The producer price index (PPI) measures inflation at the wholesale level. Yesterday morning’s monthly report showed wholesale inflation in April was up 0.2% in April; 0.3% was expected. For the past 12 months, the PPI was 2.3%. These inflation numbers, being less than expected, reduce the probability of more interest rate increases. You can see why interest rates increased the past year with the chart of inflation at the wholesale level (PPI) the past 10 years: Chi

Highlights The April CPI (inflation at the retail level) shows the US inflation rate the past 12 months was 4.9%, below the expected 5.0%. This is the 10th consecutive monthly drop in the US inflation rate. We get the PPI (inflation at wholesale level) tomorrow. Note the chart of US inflation rate since 2005: We are 9 days into the CBOT May deliveries. There has not been any corn delivered on a May futures contract, not one. That is bullish, Folks, very bullish! USDA will is

About Inflation "Roger, any thoughts on how bad inflation is going to get? Thanks, Mike" The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the measure of inflation at the retail level of an economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. Both indexes are a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. The representative samples used to calculate CPI and PPI have alr

Highlights

Highlights The Federal Reserve increased interest rates 75 basis points (0.75%) yesterday. It was 28 years ago since the Fed increased the interest rate that much. The 30 year home mortgage fixed rate is now 6.28%. The stock market rallied on the news as the market feels the Fed has finally gotten serious about controlling inflation. Fed Chairman Powell said more rate increases are coming in the next few months. He predicted the inflation rate will be back down to 2% in 202

Highlights After manufacturing moldboard plows the past 185 years, John Deere announced it will build no more moldboard plows. Plows with steel mold boards instead of wood or cast iron is what made a blacksmith named John Deere rich. Monday, June 20th is a holiday; no ag commodity trading. USDA made no changes to South America’s corn crop, but increased soybean production in both Argentina and Brazil. Indonesia announced it would fully open palm oil exports. China trimmed