BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Farm aid: The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion. The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short. Analysts estimate U.S. corn harvest was 29% co

Tidbits Basis Bids:  On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday.   President Trump and Chinese President Xi  are scheduled to meet on 31 October.   Crude oil:  With crude oil refinery runs

Tidbits Harvest:  There were many more areas in the Corn Belt than we expected that started harvest this weekend. The early yield results were reported to be less than expected, even areas where the weather was considered quite good, such as Northwest Iowa. Maybe the better-than-expected yields, if any, did not get reported. Of course, the worst yields for the 2025 crop will be the early harvest acres given the August weather.         The Corn Belt weather for the next two we

Highlights Some analysts say yesterday afternoon’s weakness at the CBOT  was because polls were showing Harris was gaining on Trump. In fact, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.   If a possible Harris victory is truly the reason CBOT prices faded yesterday afternoon, that indicates CBOT prices will rally if Trump does win. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2% and by nearly 10% in 2016.          USDA reported 91% of

Highlights All long November soybean futures and basis contracts need to be rolled or priced by the close of business tomorrow to avoid any chance of being assigned delivery. CBOT prices were lower yesterday because crude oil was down about $4 most of the day because Israel’s counter strike on Iran was not aimed at Iran’s oil infrastructure. Additional pressure came from Brazil’s rainy season progressing well and some much-needed rain is in the forecast over the next 10 days

Highlights Yesterday’s soybean export inspections were the largest weekly total in nearly two years and 69% of the beans went to China.   Cash grain export trader Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday that in the last two weeks China bought more than 90 cargoes or soybeans, 35 out of the US, 7 out of Brazil for November shipment and 46 vessels from Brazil’s new crop.   Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of: 169,926 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 130,000 mts of old crop

Highlights Yesterday was an all-around ugly attitude day for a variety of reasons, none-of-which justified the magnitude of the lower price movement. Rainy season is getting stronger in Brazil.   Good harvest weather in the U.S., which we know it would be last week. China’s economy is not going to get fixed soon enough to maintain demand for crude oil and all other commodities. Crude was down more than $4 at one point for the second consecutive day. Disappointing corn and whe

Highlights Cash crude oil was $2.91 higher and futures were $2.76 higher yesterday for several reasons: Expectations Israel will hit Iran’s crude oil fields and refineries (not likely to happen). Oil platforms shutting down as Hurricane Milton moves across the Gulf of Mexico.   For the second consecutive week, the largest speculative short position held by speculators. Ukraine said it had struck a major offshore oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea. China announced its eco

Tidbits The European Commission has proposed a delay of its landmark law Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (DFPR). You may recall that ADM was offering a 15 or 20¢ premium for soybeans with a certificate that the beans were not grown on land cleared of trees within the past few years. That was because ADM wanted to sell soybean meal to Europe in 2025 and, without the DFPR certificate, no commodity would be allowed to enter the EU in 2025. Due to the massive backlash of t

Highlights Nothing in yesterday’s reports changed our price outlook. We expected neutral to somewhat friendly numbers and that is what USDA gave us. USDA reduced the size of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop by 3 million bushels to 4,162 million bushels. USDA did not change the 2023 corn production.   The biggest surprise, but not a big one, was corn demand was substantially more (84 million bushels) than the market expected. That was a 0.56% increase in demand and a reduction of 4.

Highlights There is another tropical storm that will likely become a hurricane in the Gulf to disrupt crude oil production.   Both wars escalated a bit more yesterday. Israel said their air strikes hit 1,300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where health officials said 356 people were killed and 1,246 people were injured yesterday. The Biden Administration announced an additional 40,000 US troops to the northern border of Israel.   Growth in India's business activity slowed to a

Make Decision This Week About Fall Delivery Basis Last year the same recommendation was made about setting fall delivery basis in late July and again the first week in August.   Several clients called the first half of September and asked if they should be setting fall delivery basis?   Roger remembers one of the conversations very well and it went like this on 12 September 2023:   – Should I be setting fall delivery basis on my beans? I will not have enough storage for all o

Upcoming S&D The USDA will issue its monthly S&D Thursday at 10 AM Mountain Time. The market changes expected from October: Corn yield: increased to 173.2 vs. 173.0 and carryover increased 20 million bushels to 2.131 billion. Soybean yields: unchanged at 49.6 bu with the carryover 2 million more bushels at 222 million. World wheat carryover: down 300,000 mt to 257.8 million mt. Highlights Poet at Shell Rock, IA pushed their basis to +20Z (20¢ over Dec futures for 1st ha

Tidbits Tomorrow at 11 AM Central Time, USDA will issue its monthly S&D. It looks like corn yields could be increased and exports should be reduced. But remember, the anticipation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of the event. A somewhat larger corn carryover is already priced into the market. Will the increased carryover be larger or smaller than expected? The answer to that question will determine how much the market moves after the report. We do not

Highlights The Russian Defense Ministry says movement of ships along Black Sea security corridor is unacceptable, but stresses Russia is suspending, not withdrawing from, the Black Sea initiative. Ukraine says it will press on with the export deal despite Russia’s suspension of the deal. What is the difference between suspension and withdrawal? Suspension: stop and don’t start again until we tell you. Withdrawal: I am quitting; you can do what you want. Big difference. Russia

Harvest Report: Northeast Indiana: "Good Morning Roger... thought I would share with you some of my corn pics to match up with your Vomi comments. There is a total of 5 pics in what I just sent: In my area it's pretty bad. I'm not willing to dry and store this knowing that the in the future months I am betting the merchandisers are going to really get more picky. The place I am taking this too know is only doing a cumulative vomi check on random loads for the entire day and

Highlights The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported yesterday at mid-day their members crushed 158.109 million bushels, of soybeans in September, 3% above a year ago, but 2% below two years ago and 3.5 million bushels less than the expected to be 161.627 mil bu. Soy oil stocks are at 1.459 billion pounds, the lowest in 2 years and way below trade guess of 1.522 billion pounds, so the oil demand improved. NOPA members produced 40 million fewer pounds of oil

Marketing question from a client (first week of October 2022): Roger, I have about one-third of my soybeans unpriced. Am I better off to...

Highlights The OPEC+ meeting in Geneva is still on for today to discuss reducing crude oil production. The word now is they will discuss cut production in excess of 1 million barrels per day. One OPEC source said yesterday the cut could be 2 million barrels per day. Argentina’s grain area had its driest September in 16 years after the first 8 months of 2022 were the driest in 9 years. Argentina’s weather service predicts warmer and drier weather than normal for the next three

Highlights The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 110,000 mts of soybeans to unknown. The biggest near term Black Swan Event (terrible, shocking news to crush a market) is the EU has a major bird flu problem; some say it is the worst ever with over 50 million birds “affected”. Does “affected” mean 50 million will be destroyed? Probably, but the bigger Black Swan concern is can the infection be contained? Chickens eat a lot of corn and bean meal. The US corn crop is