BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday morning, military correspondents reported the Russian Armed Forces are carrying out massive strikes on targets in and around Ukraine’s ports in the Odessa region and on the Romanian border where air raid sirens were blaring 4½ hours during the night.     Reuters’ Karen Braun reported yesterday that soybean seed in Brazil is becoming hard to find due to all the acres that have been replanted, some replanted twice.   Eduardo Vanin, bean trader in Brazil, re

Upcoming S&D The USDA will issue its December S&D today at 10 AM Mountain Time. There will be no adjustment to US production (SOP for Dec S&D), but there may be adjustments to the demand side on the domestic S&D. The world S&D may have production and demand adjustments. Market-wise, this will be non-event, but if there is a surprise, it will be friendly for higher prices. Highlights CONAB lowered Brazil’s soybean production estimate from 162.42 mil mts to 160.18 (USDA 163).

Highlights OPEC agreed to reduce oil production at its meeting in Vienna yesterday. The crude market rallied sharply immediately after that announcement, but oil prices began to decline and then fell out-of-bed as it became clear that OPEC+ members had agreed to additional voluntary cuts  beginning in January. More obscure yet, the size of those cuts would be announced by each member instead of by the group.   The announced additional cuts in barrels per day were: Algeria 51,

Soybeans Q&A From a client in Central Missouri: "Good afternoon, Roger,  What are your thoughts on why the bean market sold off this past week? Should a guy be concerned moving forward? Corn market going to stay in a sideways trend the next month?  Thanks"   Thanksgiving week market action is so distorted it is difficult to get a good handle on the technical and fundamental situation. As far as Friday’s market action goes, the probability of rain was increased for the dry are

Highlights Yesterday, the market saw some economic reports from Asia and the USA that were somewhat negative; stuff like US unemployment claims were more than expected. Some analysts predicted China’s crude oil demand will shrink and the rest of the world will reduce its demand for crude oil.     And then President Biden, immediately after concluding the 4-hour meeting China’s President Xi, tells the world that China’s president is a dictator.     Crude oil has lost 21% of it

Farmer's Feedback We received this from BJ, a client, early Thursday morning: "The basis situation in NE Iowa is getting fun to watch. I have never seen basis this good in November. Harvest is about 99% done, so very little will be delivered straight out of the field. Today Valero in Charles City, IA sent out a flash bid of $5.20 cash. That is $0.44 over futures! Homeland Energy in Lawler, IA is +.10, now accepts corn up to 19% moisture, and is staying open late and on weeke

Highlights Bill farms 60 miles upriver from the ADM and Cargill barge loading facilities on the Ohio River at Cincinnati. He said both buyers firmed their corn basis from -28Z (28 under the December futures) to 0Z (even with December futures) yesterday. Dayton Cargill firmed their basis 5¢ to -25Z since Friday. Corn harvest is just getting a good start in Ohio and Michigan. Josh reported Homeland Energy at Lawler, Iowa, where harvest is winding down, pushed their basis to +

Highlights November Options Expire Today. It looks like the big specs (who write the calls you buy) want Dec corn to settle at $4.80, December CBOT wheat at $5.80, November beans at $12.80, December spring wheat at $7.20, and December KC wheat at $6.60. Get the option expiration out of the way for another month, maybe the market will trade the technical and fundamentals next week. Eduardo Vanin, a cash trader in Brazil, made this comment yesterday morning: "Alert: As I was

Received 6:40 AM yesterday, thanks, Jason: "CHS Fairmont, MN soybean basis firmed from -.20 to + .5 today. Thanks for the great info Wright on the Market team." Today is Friday and harvest weekend. Think pre-hedging this afternoon before the close. Highlights New unemployment claims were 198,000, 12,000 fewer than expected and strong Netflix earnings had Wall Street trading higher yesterday morning when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the labor market is so st

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 181,000 mts soft red winter wheat to China 117,300 mts soybeans to unknown 100,000 mts of soybean meal to unknown Jason Britt is the President of Central States Commodities of Kansas City. He has appeared on Bloomberg TV, Barron's and the WSJ. His comment about USDA’s math on the soybean S&D: "After going over the USDA numbers, what stands out to me is how they had to “massage” the soybean numbers to even keep carryo

Highlights Definitions: Moving average: a commodity’s (or stock) price for the past X number of days averaged each day; a 20 day closing price moving average would add the settlement of the past 20 days and divide the answer by 20. Tomorrow, the oldest day’s settlement will be removed and replaced by tomorrow’s settlement price. A moving average could be the opening price, the high for the day price, the low for the day price, etc. Short: When a person sells futures contrac

Highlights The USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Inventory and Small Grains Reports at 10 AM Mountain Time today. The corn and bean inventory numbers will be the 2022 crop carryover and will indicate what demand will be into the end of the calendar year. The scuttlebutt is that China bought 500,000 to 1 million mts of corn from Ukraine over the past two weeks for October-December shipment. Roger expected China to buy a very large amount of corn no later than the first we

Pre-Hedging October Options Expire today, it will impact the prices at least temporarily. Pre-hedging: In the grain business, pre-hedging is a grain buyer selling futures contracts on Friday afternoons before the CBOT closes to hedge the quantity of bushels he expects he will buy after CBOT closes Friday afternoon and before it reopens the following week. Pre-hedging is a market force to remember every Friday during a harvest season. Today is the first harvest weekend that

Marketing Comment The soybean meal and soybean oil marketing years end September 30. As always, there are shipments previously bought to be shipped this marketing year, but, for any one of hundreds of reasons, the actual shipments get delayed until after the end of the marketing year, making the shipment in the next marketing year. Yesterday’s Weekly Export Sales showed net cancellations for the current marketing year for meal and oil. Those who want lower prices are making

Tidbits USDA announced yesterday morning China bought 121,000 mts of soybeans. Corn crushed in July for ethanol was 454 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. August corn ethanol crush needs to be 491.9 million bushels to meet USDA’s projection for the marketing year which ended August 31st. That is not likely to happen. The US Census Bureau is the final authority on US food and fiber consumption and exports. Through the first 11 months of the old crop marketing year, Ce

Friday's Report Today is the first day of the 2023-2024 crop marketing year for corn and soybeans. The USDA is gathering information this week to determine the inventory of all commodities and those numbers will always be reported by the USDA on the last business day in September, which is a Friday, the 29th this year. The inventory number USDA reports for corn and beans will be the 2022 crop marketing year carryover and the 2023 crop marketing year carry-in. As of today, “Ol

Highlights Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Thursday: Drought Monitor: % change of crop area in drought Corn +1, Cotton +8, Sorghum +1, Soybean 0, Spring Wheat 0, Winter Wheat +1

Highlights Percent crop area in drought condition this week versus last week: Corn 42% versus 49%. Soybean 38% versus 43% Spring wheat 54% versus 52%. Winter wheat 43% versus 45% Ag Resource Company Illinois and Iowa Crop Survey Video (less than USDA’s August yields): https://twitter.com/i/status/1692175523886301425 China Evergrande is one of the three largest property developers in China and it has been behind on its debt service payments for 17 months. Yesterday, China Ever

Highlights July’s CPI (inflation at the retail level) was up 0.2% (as expected) and up 3.2% (3.3% expected) for the previous 12 months. Unemployment claims, at 248,000, were 17,000 more than expected and 21,000 more than last week. The Producer Price Index will be released later this morning. It is expected to be up 0.2% for the month of July. Chevron and Woodside Energy are holding talks with unions in a bid to avert strikes at their Western Australia state natural gas faci

Highlights The percent of the nation’s corn crop in a drought declined 2% the past week to “just” 57%. Likewise, the beans in a drought declined 2% to “just” 51%. If that will make record high yields, something is wrong someplace. The discussion between Putin and Turkey’s President Erdogan to revive Ukraine’s export corridor was short. Putin said sanctions must be lifted. End of discussion. Rumor is India is working on a deal to buy 9 million mts of Russian wheat. India o