Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Yesterday’s NOPA crush for November was down 3% from October and about 3.5 million bushels less than expected, but it was a record high for any November at 193.19 million bushels. Oil Stocks were 1.084 billion pounds; the average oil inventory estimate was 1.123 billion pounds, starting the new soy oil marketing year at the lowest level since 2014/2015. AgRural estimates the Brazilian corn crop at 121.3 million mts (USDA 127) and Brazil’s soybean crop at 171.5 milli

Tidbits Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will issue its December S&D. If the U.S. corn carryover is reduced by 75 million bushels, which is possible to probable, the carryover will be reduced by 2 days for the second consecutive month and 6 days since September. Market advisor Kevin Duling summarized his lengthy Monday market analysis this way: “Despite how things feel, from a fundamental standpoint, things are on pace. Exports have been amazing across the board on a

Highlights Yesterday, S&P Global reported China’s PMI rose to 51.5 in November, the highest since June as new export orders rose for the first time in four months. The market expected China’s PMI to be only 50.5. This is one the strongest one-month PMI gain ever for any country! China's November factory production expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. New orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers' optimism

Tidbits The market will be closed on Thursday observing the Thanksgiving holiday. The final crop progress report for the season: Winter wheat planting is at 97% complete - one of the most late-season endings. It is rated 55% good or excellent, 6% points improvement from a week ago and 10 better than five-year average level. As of the third week of November, Ukraine's total grain harvest is 53.4 million mts, a 3.8% decline compared to the previous year, which includes 23.6 mil

Highlights December basis contracts and long futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled by the close of business on Wednesday, 27 November. Given that December options expire this Friday and December delivery assignments will be issued on the evening of 27th, we recommend you roll basis contracts today or tomorrow to avoid the usual weakness associated with options expiration and first notice day. There are probably a lot of December corn basis contracts. When December

Highlights Yesterday, a stronger dollar (six month high), fear of Trump tariffs, improving weather in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, South America, and in the U.S. winter wheat area all combined to encourage profit talking and then technical selling kicked-in. Wheat market guru, Andrey Sizov had this to say about the wheat market yesterday: "Over the weekend, Kansas received 20-40 mm (25.4 mm = 1 inch) of precipitation, offsetting the moisture deficit accumulated over

Highlights Some analysts say yesterday afternoon’s weakness at the CBOT was because polls were showing Harris was gaining on Trump. In fact, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. If a possible Harris victory is truly the reason CBOT prices faded yesterday afternoon, that indicates CBOT prices will rally if Trump does win. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2% and by nearly 10% in 2016. USDA reported 91% of t

Highlights All long November soybean futures and basis contracts need to be rolled or priced by the close of business tomorrow to avoid any chance of being assigned delivery. CBOT prices were lower yesterday because crude oil was down about $4 most of the day because Israel’s counter strike on Iran was not aimed at Iran’s oil infrastructure. Additional pressure came from Brazil’s rainy season progressing well and some much-needed rain is in the forecast over the next 10 days

Highlights Yesterday’s soybean export inspections were the largest weekly total in nearly two years and 69% of the beans went to China. Cash grain export trader Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday that in the last two weeks China bought more than 90 cargoes or soybeans, 35 out of the US, 7 out of Brazil for November shipment and 46 vessels from Brazil’s new crop. Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of: 169,926 mts of old crop corn to Mexico and 130,000 mts of old crop

Highlights Yesterday was an all-around ugly attitude day for a variety of reasons, none-of-which justified the magnitude of the lower price movement. Rainy season is getting stronger in Brazil. Good harvest weather in the U.S., which we know it would be last week. China’s economy is not going to get fixed soon enough to maintain demand for crude oil and all other commodities. Crude was down more than $4 at one point for the second consecutive day. Disappointing corn and whe

Highlights Cash crude oil was $2.91 higher and futures were $2.76 higher yesterday for several reasons: Expectations Israel will hit Iran’s crude oil fields and refineries (not likely to happen). Oil platforms shutting down as Hurricane Milton moves across the Gulf of Mexico. For the second consecutive week, the largest speculative short position held by speculators. Ukraine said it had struck a major offshore oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea. China announced its eco

Highlights Nothing in yesterday’s reports changed our price outlook. We expected neutral to somewhat friendly numbers and that is what USDA gave us. USDA reduced the size of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop by 3 million bushels to 4,162 million bushels. USDA did not change the 2023 corn production. The biggest surprise, but not a big one, was corn demand was substantially more (84 million bushels) than the market expected. That was a 0.56% increase in demand and a reduction of 4.

Highlights There is another tropical storm that will likely become a hurricane in the Gulf to disrupt crude oil production. Both wars escalated a bit more yesterday. Israel said their air strikes hit 1,300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where health officials said 356 people were killed and 1,246 people were injured yesterday. The Biden Administration announced an additional 40,000 US troops to the northern border of Israel. Growth in India's business activity slowed to a

Highlights Compared to July, the NOPA August crush decreased 14% to 158.008 million bu. The market expected 171.325! The August crush was down 2% from a year ago. This is the lowest August total since 2017 and the lowest monthly total since September 2021. Soybean crush for marketing year just completed set monthly records for 10 out of the 12 months. The soy oil inventory on August 31st was 1.138 billion pounds, down from 1.499 billion last month. The market expected 1.35

Highlights A developing tropical storm that is expected to track through the Gulf of Mexico and hit parts of Texas and Louisiana by Thursday will hit 60% of the US refining capacity and a large percentage of off-shore drilling and pumping platforms. Colombian rebels have renewed their war on that nation’s oil industry with a wave of pipeline attacks that sent crude spilling into rivers and clouds of black smoke billowing into the sky. The National Liberation Army is reactiv

Highlights The USDA reported the crush numbers for July: Soybean crush in July was 193 million bushels, 8 million bushels more (4.3%) than a year ago. Corn crush was 527 million bushels, 4% more than a year ago. Corn for ethanol was 474 million bushels, also 4% more than a year ago. Canola crush was 230,516 tons, 10.1% more than a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 32.8 million pounds, 27% more than a year. USDA will issue the next S&D on Thursday, 12 September. Trad

Highlights There was no agreement on Sunday in the Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Egypt . Neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to...

Highlights ProFarmer Tour field comments Monday: Average pod counts for soybeans in a 3x3 foot plot in northeast Nebraska (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties) on the pftour24 (Pro Farmer tour 2024). Same route as past years through four stops: 2024: 1003 2023: 1295 (1 irrigated) 2022: 1200 (1 irrigated) 2021: 1057 Four stops in northeast Nebraska on pftour24 (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties). Corn yield has averaged (in bu/acre) on this exact route through four stops in the last f

Highlights USDA's August S&D report summary: Corn harvested acres down 700,000 to 82.7 million. Corn yield up 2.1 bushels per acre to 183.1. Corn production up 47 million bu to 15.147 billion bushels; corn usage up 70 million bushels. Bean harvested acres up by just over 1 million acres (was the USDA Actual Planted Acres in June wrong?). Where did those acres come from? The USDA reported “prevented plantings” of 2.670 million acres of corn, 775,000 acres of soybeans, and 389,

Highlights Japan's stock market suffered its second largest stock market decline ever on Monday, world markets followed. Not that it was anything Japan did to cause the sell-off. The world-wide sell-off was triggered by the US economy showing much higher unemployment and many fewer new jobs than expected on Thursday. The Fed should have been cutting interest rates last month as the US economy was on an inflation-controlled landing pattern and the Fed did overshot the