BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Last half of August is going to be hot and dry for most of the Corn Belt. Suddenly, soybeans and soybean oil are leading CBOT higher. Finally, big specs are buying bean oil and selling meal. Yesterday, November beans were up 18¼¢, September oil up 87¢ per cwt, September meal up 70¢ per ton with a settlement at $404.50. The meal puts summary: Wednesday saw another batch of better-than-expected US economic data showing that interest rates increases are most likely to

The markets usually do not move very much the 24 hours before a USDA monthly S&D as traders have had weeks to determine the positions they want to hold through the report and those on the sidelines stay on the sidelines until after the report. Highlights Poland sent 2,000 troops to the Belarusian border this week. Terrible floods this week in Norway, Slovenia, Alaska, and Northeast China (corn country). Typhoon Kanu’s route changed. It will pass through China’s regions of

Highlights The world markets were really shaken by Fitch’s lower credit rating for the USA government. For a hundred years, America has been the beacon of all that is solid, successful, and reliable. A lower credit rating only happens to poorly managed entities. Yep, America is, in fact, a poorly managed entity. Putin and Turkey’s President Erdogan purportedly will discuss a revival of the export corridor. That news may have pressured corn and wheat even more than the down-

Highlights Ukraine and the EU are considering rebuilding port facilities and fund transportation of grain to ports in Croatia and Lithuania. That will take at least US$1.5 billion and how many months or years? How long will it take a Russian drone to destroy the new construction? They need to spend $1.5 billion to end the war. But then, ending the war is not the goal. Keeping the war going is the goal so all participants in government and war insiders can earn and/or siphon-o

Yesterday, Roger recommended you price 2023 fertilizer. He meant fertilizer for 2024 crops. Highlights Is the weather or the war more supportive of these markets? Does it matter? Wheat certainly gets an extra boost on the war news as the war is in “The Bread Basket of the World.” Russia took another swipe on Ukraine’s port of Odessa again Wednesday and will probably continue to do so. The Viterra and Kernel facilities were both bombed. Major damage was done. That news suppo

S&D Analysis Corn After close study of yesterday’s USDA corn S&D, it was not nearly as bearish as it appeared to us nor as bearish as the market reacted. Old crop corn exports were reduced 75 million, as expected, but feed use was increased 150 million bushels. The USDA is finally coming to the conclusion that when we have the same animal units in a year as the previous year, we will feed the same amount of corn and wheat, That and the 4 bushel yield decline pretty much wipe

Mowery Auction Company is located about 2 hours south of Chicago. They do a big business in farm machinery from west of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast. One of their driver’s told one of our Ohio clients that a “huge” area of Central Illinois has corn two feet tall and tasseling. What do you folks in Central Illinois say about that? Highlights Red Crown Rot Found in Illinois Soybeans; read about it at: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soybeans/red-crown-rot-reaches-ill

July Futures Expiration Today is the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on July CBOT contracts. After the close today, if any delivery notices are given to the CBOT for delivery on July futures, those deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long July positions after the close today. What does that mean for you? If you have July basis contracts, your merchandiser wants you to cash them out or roll to a deferred month before the market closes today. If y

Highlights July CBOT options expire today. The day before and the day options expire are usually down days for CBOT futures. President Biden at a west coast fundraiser called China’s President Xi a "dictator" Wednesday evening. Xi was not pleased one bit and he let the US Ambassador know that Biden’s comment was "political provocation." In hindsight, that added pressure to the soybeans yesterday on top of the biodiesel blending disappointment. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yel

Highlights The US Producer Price Index for May was reported yesterday morning a negative 0.3% versus the expected negative 0.1%; April was a plus 0.2%. As expected, for the first month since March of 2022, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday afternoon. China’s palm oil inventory has declined 12 consecutive weeks. That is one of the reasons soybean oil has gained 12¢ a pound (27%) so far this month.

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS run showed a slightly wetter Delta and a slightly drier Argentina. Last evening’s GFS run predicted western Central Wisconsin into Minnesota will get 6 to 7 inches (15.5 to 18 cm) of rain by June 23rd. the far west of Kentucky and Tennessee will get 9 to 11 inches of rain. Central Illinois slated for 1 to 2.3 inches Temperatures in the majority of the US are expected to be normal to below normal for the next 10 days, with rain expected twic

Highlights The OPEC+ meeting this Sunday was called by Saudi Arabia to chastise other members for pumping more crude oil than they agreed. Russia is at the top of the list of over-producers. In 1985, OPEC members agreed on production quotas. In early 1986, all OPEC members, except Saudi Arabia, were over-producing. In those days, Saudi Arabia was THE big hammer of crude oil production, bigger than they are now. To show the other OPEC members what real overproduction crude o

Highlights Talks between top-ranking Republicans and Democrats continue about the debt ceiling. Hawkish (aggressive, forceful) comments yesterday from Federal Reserve Governors Bullard and Kashkari raised expectations for a longer period of high interest rates or even higher rates. The US dollar, with the renewed prospect of higher interest rates, broke out to the top side of its range. Private Brazil Crop Analyst, Agroconsult, raised their projection for the second crop Br

Highlights Russia's Foreign Minister confirmed mid-day yesterday the Ukraine grain corridor deal was extended to July 18th. No one has said anything about sanctions against Russia being lifted. It is illogical Russia would back-down so easily. After all that tough talk that sanctions must be lifted to extend the grain deal, it appears Putin was willing to embarrass himself in order to keep his buddy, Turkey’s President Erdogan in office as he faces a run-off election May 28th

Highlights The April CPI (inflation at the retail level) shows the US inflation rate the past 12 months was 4.9%, below the expected 5.0%. This is the 10th consecutive monthly drop in the US inflation rate. We get the PPI (inflation at wholesale level) tomorrow. Note the chart of US inflation rate since 2005: We are 9 days into the CBOT May deliveries. There has not been any corn delivered on a May futures contract, not one. That is bullish, Folks, very bullish! USDA will is

For the dozens of you folks who have asked how to regain the financial loss resulting from buying fertilizer, diesel fuel and other inputs too soon, and not selling grain sooner, here is your chance to get that money back. Read the following carefully because this is possibly the most unique situation and opportunity you will ever have. Highlights Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked the Kremlin in Moscow in an attempt to kill Putin Wednesday morning. No one was hurt and t

Your futures broker and your merchandiser want all May futures positions and basis contracts liquidated or rolled by the close of business today. Friday is the first day the CBOT will issue delivery assignments to the oldest long May contract futures contract on the books; Friday is what the trade calls “First Notice Day” (FND). For CBOT ag contracts, FND is always the last business day of the calendar month preceding the futures contract month. To learn about how the deliver

Highlights Inspections of ships carrying grain from Ukraine resumed after two days of hassle. Russia's Ag Ministry sees Russian 2023 wheat production at 78 million mt, ~9 million mt less than SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) projected yesterday. China will auction-off another 1.5 million bushels of its state reserves of imported wheat on April 26 to keep a lid on domestic prices. China always replenishes its government reserves with imports. Some showers were added to the forecast f

Highlights The most important price outlook indicators for corn, wheat and beans without any reliable fundamental news from the USDA is carry (daily), basis (weekly) and technical outlook. Let’s take a look at the May to July carry for the first three days this week: Corn: May gained 4½¢ on the July = Bullish Beans: May gained 11¼¢ on the July = Bullish Soft red winter wheat: May gained 5¢ on the July = Bullish Hard red winter wheat: May lost ½¢ on the July = steady with a

Highlights There was a lot of US and world economic news yesterday. While none of it was terrible, none of it was as “good” as expected. For example, unexpectedly, the Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 basis points (half a percent). Argentina did announce its third soy/dollar deal, which begins Saturday. The conversion will be 300 pesos per US dollar vs. the official exchange rate of 210 pesos. That is a 42.5% over the market premium. Tha