BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

The CBOT will start trading at 8:30 AM Central Time Friday.  Highlights Soybean oil leaped higher yesterday, with August up 1.6¢ per pound. Over the past 6 trading days, bean oil has added 76¢ of value to a bushel of soybeans (6.6¢ gain in value per pound of oil times 11.5 pounds of oil per bushel of soybeans). Tomorrow, we will get vegetable oil analyst Khawaja Haroon’s insights on the vegetable oil market.   The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were sharply higher and made new all-time h

Highlights Yesterday was a painful day for those of us expecting this oversold corn market to recover a bit before tomorrow’s USDA Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Wheat Production Reports.   Computer programs that track carryover numbers and price history say the corn market is trading a 2.7 billion bushels new crop carryover. The USDA projected carryover is at 2.102 billion bushels.       The USDA used a corn yield of 181 on the last two S&Ds. The best aver

Highlights July CBOT options expire today. A week from today is the Actual Planted Acres, Wheat Production, and Quarterly Grain Inventory as of June 1st. These numbers make the last business day in June the most important report day of the year.  Friday is not only option expiration in the grains but also for stock & index options, index & single stock futures. This could be the largest ever with over $5.1 trillion in option exposure expiring and over $870 billion of that in

Highlights Yesterday morning, the consumer price index for May was unchanged from April and up 3.3% for the past 12 months. Core CPI was up 0.2% in May (+0.1% expected), which was lowest since April 2021. April’s core CPI was +0.3%.   The Federal Reserve announced yesterday afternoon it will hold interest rates steady and pushed out the start of rate cuts to as late as December, projecting only one 25 basis points (one-fourth percent) rate reduction for the year.   China’s ec

Highlights The weekly ethanol report numbers were supportive for corn prices, but the market ignored it. Ethanol production was the second highest ever for this reporting week and the ethanol inventory was down 155,000 barrels from last week.   S&P Global left their Brazilian corn production unchanged at 123 mil. mts (USDA 122) and their soybean number also unchanged at 152 mil. mts (USDA 154).   SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) cut his Russian wheat crop estimate from 82.1 mil. mts ju

Highlights The USA GDP for the first quarter was reported at 1.3% versus 1.2% estimate. Jobless claims were 219,000 to 218,000 expected with the previous week revised up to 216,000. Goods trade balance was deficit $99.4 billion vs. $91.8 billion estimate. Goods and services combined balance is a bit better, but consistently negative since the 90s, meaning US imports more than it exports, and that is one of the reasons the national debt is ever rising. A Federal Reserve “chit-

Highlights June CBOT options expire tomorrow. Yesterday, China soybean futures traded at highs for the year at the equivalent of $15.27 per bushel. The chatter yesterday was that as many as 8 shiploads of US soybeans were booked to be shipped out of the PNW ports to China.     Yes, we really think beans will get to $13+. Corn in China is in a nice uptrend, there is some reason for optimism:

Highlights Slovakia is a member of the EU and NATO. Its Prime Minister, Robert Fico, was shot yesterday morning US time by a 71-year-old man. Fico was in critical condition when he arrived at the hospital. He did survive the surgery and was listed in stable condition at last report.   Fico has been an out-spoken critic of admitting Ukraine to membership in the EU, NATO, and military aid to Ukraine. He also opposed liberal immigration policies. He is considered a “nationalist”

Highlights Biden said late yesterday he will withhold weapons from Israel if it invades Rafah. Most news reports state Israel’s military went into Rafah on Tuesday.    The main crude oil news yesterday was the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in the morning an inventory draw-down of 1.4 million barrels for the week ending May 3rd, which was much different than last week’s build of 7.3 million barrels. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute estimated

Highlights The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate hike was "unlikely" and that his baseline scenario is still for inflation to cool and pave the way for lower interest rates. There will be some “quantitative easing” starting in June, meaning some movement to increase the money supply. As we expected, the Fed will not make a serious effort to get inflation lower in the Presidential election year.         The USDA crush report for Ma

Highlights Analysts expect a military operation by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will likely maintain upward pressure on the crude oil market and natural gas to a lesser extent. The peak of hostilities will occur at the beginning of the driving season for Europe and the USA.   Israel announced it will launch an operation in Rafah, a city near the border with Egypt and the last refuge of Hamas among thousands of Palestinian refugees. The attack will begin before May 5th. The

Highlights The dollar index traded to 106.57 on Tuesday. Last Friday, the dollar index was at 104.30. In the world of exchange rates and commodity prices, that 2.27 point move in two days is a minor earthquake and it did damage to your operation.   The first week of January, the dollar index was 101.38 and it took 4.85 Brazilian Real to buy a US dollar. If soybeans were $11 a bushel, a Brazilian farmer would be paid 53.35 Reals per bushel. On April 9th, the same $11 beans wou

Market Comment The USDA will issue its April S&D today at 10 AM Mountain time. Given the March inventory of corn, we already know feed use this past winter was stronger than USDA expected. We already know from weekly numbers that the corn for ethanol crush and corn exports are running stronger than USDA projected for the year. But will USDA reduce the corn carryover below 2 billion bushels, as they should, based on the numbers we already know? Probably not.   The average esti

Highlights Yesterday’s end of the day comments from a grain merchandiser: "There was little fresh news today making it difficult to explain away the higher markets today."     And then he reports: "Wheat was the upside leader as Russia and Black Sea region is dry while France is too wet.   Weekly ethanol production was up 1.8% from the prior week and was up 7.0% from a year ago. Production was record high for the period averaging 1.073 million gallons per day.    Corn is seei

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Planting Intentions Survey At noon Eastern Time on Thursday, 28 March, the USDA will issue results of its survey of farmers planting intentions for corn, beans and spring wheat as well as the inventory of grains and oilseeds on hand as of March 1st. So, both new and old crops will get a major dose of information that could move the market sharply up or down.   CBOT will be closed on Good Friday, March 29. No markets Thursday evening. Trade resumes normal evening session on Ea

Highlights 247AG, after predicting Brazil’s weather the next 10 days, reports:   "Can it get worse? Most definitely. Just getting started. Safrinha crop will be off by at least 20%, if not 30% or more."   Corn futures in Brazil continue to rise, buoyed by the weather forecast for April.   The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will increase the daily limit of vessels through the canal from 24 to 27 on March 18th. Three Panamax ships would hold 6.5 mil. bushels of corn.

Highlights As of the close yesterday, farmers in the Sorriso area of Mato Grosso were looking at: A loss of $261.39 per hectare ($105.82 per acre) for corn. A profit of $217.42 per hectare ($88.02 per acre) for soybeans.   Do you think they are rushing to plant safrinha corn?   Eduardo Vanin: "Soybean farmer selling activity in Brazil remains robust. Brokers and traders estimate sales of 700,000 mts, marking the most significant one-day sales volume since last November. This

Highlights The number of CBOT contracts that will be assigned today for delivery tomorrow were announced last evening. If you want price to go higher, you want to see very few to no deliveries, but nothing is 100% in this business. Spring Wheat 591 contracts to 20 Feb 2024 KC Wheat 56 to 13 Feb 2024 Chi Wheat 484 to 22 Feb 2024 Soybeans 702 to 26 Feb 2024, pretty “strong hands”       Soy Meal1 to 18 Aug 2023 Soy Oil 271 to 1 Feb 2024, 234 contracts went to “strong hands”     

Highlights March options go off the board at the close on Friday, February 23. First notice day for March grains is Thursday, February 29. Be out of longs by the close of business on Wednesday to avoid risk participating in the delivery process.   The U.S. government said on Thursday it approved a request from Midwestern governors allowing expanded sales of gasoline with higher blends of ethanol in their states, starting in 2025, one year later than originally proposed. The g