BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The USA GDP for the first quarter was reported at 1.3% versus 1.2% estimate. Jobless claims were 219,000 to 218,000 expected with the previous week revised up to 216,000. Goods trade balance was deficit $99.4 billion vs. $91.8 billion estimate. Goods and services combined balance is a bit better, but consistently negative since the 90s, meaning US imports more than it exports, and that is one of the reasons the national debt is ever rising. A Federal Reserve “chit-

Highlights June CBOT options expire tomorrow. Yesterday, China soybean futures traded at highs for the year at the equivalent of $15.27 per bushel. The chatter yesterday was that as many as 8 shiploads of US soybeans were booked to be shipped out of the PNW ports to China.     Yes, we really think beans will get to $13+. Corn in China is in a nice uptrend, there is some reason for optimism:

Highlights Slovakia is a member of the EU and NATO. Its Prime Minister, Robert Fico, was shot yesterday morning US time by a 71-year-old man. Fico was in critical condition when he arrived at the hospital. He did survive the surgery and was listed in stable condition at last report.   Fico has been an out-spoken critic of admitting Ukraine to membership in the EU, NATO, and military aid to Ukraine. He also opposed liberal immigration policies. He is considered a “nationalist”

Highlights Biden said late yesterday he will withhold weapons from Israel if it invades Rafah. Most news reports state Israel’s military went into Rafah on Tuesday.    The main crude oil news yesterday was the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in the morning an inventory draw-down of 1.4 million barrels for the week ending May 3rd, which was much different than last week’s build of 7.3 million barrels. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute estimated

Highlights The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate hike was "unlikely" and that his baseline scenario is still for inflation to cool and pave the way for lower interest rates. There will be some “quantitative easing” starting in June, meaning some movement to increase the money supply. As we expected, the Fed will not make a serious effort to get inflation lower in the Presidential election year.         The USDA crush report for Ma

Highlights Analysts expect a military operation by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will likely maintain upward pressure on the crude oil market and natural gas to a lesser extent. The peak of hostilities will occur at the beginning of the driving season for Europe and the USA.   Israel announced it will launch an operation in Rafah, a city near the border with Egypt and the last refuge of Hamas among thousands of Palestinian refugees. The attack will begin before May 5th. The

Highlights The dollar index traded to 106.57 on Tuesday. Last Friday, the dollar index was at 104.30. In the world of exchange rates and commodity prices, that 2.27 point move in two days is a minor earthquake and it did damage to your operation.   The first week of January, the dollar index was 101.38 and it took 4.85 Brazilian Real to buy a US dollar. If soybeans were $11 a bushel, a Brazilian farmer would be paid 53.35 Reals per bushel. On April 9th, the same $11 beans wou

Market Comment The USDA will issue its April S&D today at 10 AM Mountain time. Given the March inventory of corn, we already know feed use this past winter was stronger than USDA expected. We already know from weekly numbers that the corn for ethanol crush and corn exports are running stronger than USDA projected for the year. But will USDA reduce the corn carryover below 2 billion bushels, as they should, based on the numbers we already know? Probably not.   The average esti

Highlights Yesterday’s end of the day comments from a grain merchandiser: "There was little fresh news today making it difficult to explain away the higher markets today."     And then he reports: "Wheat was the upside leader as Russia and Black Sea region is dry while France is too wet.   Weekly ethanol production was up 1.8% from the prior week and was up 7.0% from a year ago. Production was record high for the period averaging 1.073 million gallons per day.    Corn is seei

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Planting Intentions Survey At noon Eastern Time on Thursday, 28 March, the USDA will issue results of its survey of farmers planting intentions for corn, beans and spring wheat as well as the inventory of grains and oilseeds on hand as of March 1st. So, both new and old crops will get a major dose of information that could move the market sharply up or down.   CBOT will be closed on Good Friday, March 29. No markets Thursday evening. Trade resumes normal evening session on Ea

Highlights 247AG, after predicting Brazil’s weather the next 10 days, reports:   "Can it get worse? Most definitely. Just getting started. Safrinha crop will be off by at least 20%, if not 30% or more."   Corn futures in Brazil continue to rise, buoyed by the weather forecast for April.   The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will increase the daily limit of vessels through the canal from 24 to 27 on March 18th. Three Panamax ships would hold 6.5 mil. bushels of corn.

Highlights As of the close yesterday, farmers in the Sorriso area of Mato Grosso were looking at: A loss of $261.39 per hectare ($105.82 per acre) for corn. A profit of $217.42 per hectare ($88.02 per acre) for soybeans.   Do you think they are rushing to plant safrinha corn?   Eduardo Vanin: "Soybean farmer selling activity in Brazil remains robust. Brokers and traders estimate sales of 700,000 mts, marking the most significant one-day sales volume since last November. This

Highlights The number of CBOT contracts that will be assigned today for delivery tomorrow were announced last evening. If you want price to go higher, you want to see very few to no deliveries, but nothing is 100% in this business. Spring Wheat 591 contracts to 20 Feb 2024 KC Wheat 56 to 13 Feb 2024 Chi Wheat 484 to 22 Feb 2024 Soybeans 702 to 26 Feb 2024, pretty “strong hands”       Soy Meal1 to 18 Aug 2023 Soy Oil 271 to 1 Feb 2024, 234 contracts went to “strong hands”     

Highlights March options go off the board at the close on Friday, February 23. First notice day for March grains is Thursday, February 29. Be out of longs by the close of business on Wednesday to avoid risk participating in the delivery process.   The U.S. government said on Thursday it approved a request from Midwestern governors allowing expanded sales of gasoline with higher blends of ethanol in their states, starting in 2025, one year later than originally proposed. The g

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

Tidbits The USDA will release its monthly US and world S&D today at 10 AM Mountain Time. CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, will also release its latest production estimates this morning several hours before USDA as will StatsCanada issue its grain inventory reports.   Yesterday, March cocoa was up $190 and July was up $130 per mt. Soybeans Crush and Exports Commentary In February 1972, Nixon visited Communist China and sold them massive amounts of wheat, and he did the same in Moscow thr

Highlights Front month corn and beans settled slightly higher yesterday after trading modestly lower most of the day and after a key reversal on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, a positive development.    The US Census Bureau is the final word on all numbers and today the Census Bureau will report the December crush numbers. October 2023 was the largest monthly soy crush ever for the USA at 201 mil bu, but the market expects the December soy crush will be 206.1 mil. bu.

Highlights China reduced the required cash reserve of deposits for the nation’s banks, which allows the banks to loan a higher percentage of their deposits. This action makes more money available for businesses and consumers which will stimulate the economy and increase demand for just about everything. This move is projected to inject about $140 billion of cash into the economy.   The Suez Canal and Red Sea area of conflict gets more dangerous every day.      Yesterday, the

Market Comment Last evening Kevin Duling sent his clients his weekly letter. Here are his highlights: "Did we cross the threshold this week? Did we hit the point where everyone is ready to throw in the towel and give up any hope of any kind of rally in anything? I cannot put my finger on it, but after talking to a few folks this morning, most can sense a change. I felt it last night after sending out that YouTube video. In my case, it was a relief because I set up market boun