BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The World Bank expects global economic growth to be 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024 with the Russian economy to contract by 3.3% in 2023 and expand 1.6% in 2024. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, said the US economy may avoid a recession entirely. They are a lone wolf among Wall Street firms and economic think tanks. For those of you who have been with us for a while, know we have been saying the same thing for several months. Goldman goes so far to say the EU may al

Tidbits Deliveries assigned for today by the CBOT are 654 soy oil to 28 December, 93 soybeans to 25 October, and zero bean meal to 9 December. To learn about how and why deliveries affect commodity prices, go to: www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/delivery-process-at-the-cbot Most of the reasons for lower CBOT prices yesterday were from outside the ag business. For the first time since February 1989, the number of US dollars in circulation decreased from the previous month. Th

Highlights Officials in Beijing increased public covid checks and locked-down some residential apartment complexes after the covid case load increased fourfold in recent days. The word “lockdown” scared the crude oil bulls yesterday, but crude held in there with a nice comeback of $1.56 to settle down only 67 cents. We highly recommend no long crude oil or petroleum product positions because of China’s battle with covid. Starting Jan 5th, the US will require negative covid te

Highlights NPR reports China is dealing with the largest COVID surge of the pandemic with possibly 800 million cases. We all know there are a lot of sick people in China and, lock down or not, that many sick people is bad for business, especially crude oil and soybeans. USDA announced export sales yesterday morning of: 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 141,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico Argentina’s Rosario Exchange improved the country’s good or excellent bean r

Highlights The oil tanker traffic jam at the Black Sea entrance to the Dardanelles Strait and access to the rest of the world started to clear yesterday after insurers and the Turkish government reached an agreement over the regulation requiring proof-of-insurance documents. The International Group of P&I Clubs and Turkey officials came to an agreement (pay-off). US crude oil inventories increased 7.819 million barrels last week after declining four consecutive weeks. The mar

Highlights Early Monday news was China may announce ten COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, after three years of zero-tolerance measures; that news had crude oil, grains, soybeans higher yesterday morning. Just before the price dropped late yesterday morning, the news was released that, effective today, China would cut retail gasoline and diesel prices by about $62.51 per mt to support the economy. China’s crude refineries were ordered to maintain production and

Highlights All the crude oil traders saw or heard yesterday was more cases of covid infection in China than any time since the dark days...

Highlights Will grains and soybeans ever go up? After yesterday, that is the question millions of people want to know. If you just look at CBOT action, yes, yesterday was a very bad day as new lows for the move were made in everything except oats. When CBOT prices are in downtrend, it is because of one or more of the following: Too much supply. USDA’s wheat and corn carryovers reported Wednesday were less than the market expected and the bean carryover was increased from a 17

Highlights The Russian Defense Ministry says movement of ships along Black Sea security corridor is unacceptable, but stresses Russia is suspending, not withdrawing from, the Black Sea initiative. Ukraine says it will press on with the export deal despite Russia’s suspension of the deal. What is the difference between suspension and withdrawal? Suspension: stop and don’t start again until we tell you. Withdrawal: I am quitting; you can do what you want. Big difference. Russia

Highlights A surprise for the day is water levels on the Lower Mississippi are actually higher than they were last week. Somebody must have opened some gates up stream last week. La Niña will take a break. Both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day weather forecasts predict above to much above normal rainfall from Indiana all the way to the West Coast. Consistent decent rainfall for two weeks will slow the last of the harvest, which will firm the basis and support futures price

Yield Report from Grand Forks County, Northeast North Dakota: "Best yielding beans, by far, I have ever grown. Yields are running 45 to 70 bushels." (State average 35 bushels) Thanks, Dexter Highlights A rumor late yesterday morning was Russia was close to agreeing to an extension of the Ukraine Grain Export corridor. That sent CBOT wheat from 12 cents higher to 12 cents lower. Tidbits Soybean crush futures made contract highs (again) yesterday. Vomitoxin in corn in the East

Highlights China's Dalian futures exchange saw beans trade to a new contract high again Tuesday, the equivalent of US$21.16 per bushel. Bean harvest is at 44% complete vs. 41% expected and 38% for the average. That is a bit bullish because there are less beans in the field than the market expected. Corn at 31% vs. 34% expected and 30% average pace. That is a bit bearish because there is 3% more of the crop still in the field needing to come to market than the market expecte

Highlights The CPI was reported yesterday morning was 8.3% versus the expected to be 8.0% for July 2022 compared to July 2021. The cost of food was up 11.4% from a year ago, the largest increase since May 1979. For reasons that make no sense, many analysts thought the rate of inflation had slowed enough that there would be no need for the federal reserve to raise interest rates again. The media was touting for weeks the prospect of substantially reduced inflation as a “done d

Highlights USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 167,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his corn yield forecast by 3 bushels to 170. Allendale’s yield producer survey has corn at 172.39 bpa (USDA 175.5; Pro Farmer 168.1). Aflatoxin problems in corn in the Southern States. USDA expects regular reporting of weekly export sales to resume September 15th due to problems with its new system last week. All markets hate un

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 133,000 mts of new crop corn to China DTN’s Digital Yield Tour says corn will yield at 167.2 bushels; USDA is at 177.0 and the average estimate for Friday’s USDA production report is 175.9 bushels. DTN Tour see beans at 48.9 bushels; USDA’s at 51.5, average estimate is 51.1 bushels. The first shipload of grain from Ukraine since February arrived in Lebanon yesterday. It was rejected and not allowed to unload. Typi

Highlights Nancy Pelosi’s plane arrived in Taiwan yesterday mid-morning just before beans tested their low for the day. The whole world was watching because China said they would retaliate militarily if she set foot in Taiwan. Apparently, the soybean and crude oil market were relieved her plane did not get blown out of the sky before its arrival as prices rallied after her plane landed, but then prices sunk back to near the lows of the day on the close. She has to get out of

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Why Soybeans Will Make New Highs

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