BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The government shutdown has reached day 30, approaching the record. The longest shutdown in U.S. history of 35 days occurred during Donald Trump's first presidency in 2019. The ongoing one has already cost the U.S. economy $7-14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Medicine:  Farmers and ranchers could face a major premium hike as expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. W

Tidbits Monday is 1 September, Labor Day. After trade is complete today, no ag commodities will trade until Monday evening. Crude oil will trade normal hours Sunday evening through Monday with a trade date listed as 2 September. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday crude oil trading will both be recorded as one trading day, Tuesday 2 September. The U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q2, up from the 3% estimate, helped by stronger consumer spending and a notable upgrade in bu

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the second quarter at 3%, market expected just 2.3%. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. For the first time since 1993, two Federal Reserve officials dissented from the majority decision out of total 11 votes, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, broke with the majority. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged

Tidbits Canada’s  new tax targets U.S. tech firms. In response, the Trump Administration has broken-off tariff  and trade negotiations and will set a new tariff rate on Canadian goods this week.   Trump is planning executive orders to boost energy  supply to power U.S. expansion of artificial intelligence.   Bio Fuel  Consultant Corey Lavinsky reported Saturday afternoon that the Senate’s updated biofuel amendment proposal was good news for small biodiesel facilities, which h

Tidbits The only excuse given for corn’s sharp losses yesterday was the planting progress being 2% more than a year ago. No doubt, yesterday being the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on May futures had something to do with the decline. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain and 110,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Also, an importer in Taiwan purchased 65,000 mts of U.S. corn and a South Korean im

Highlights On Wednesday, President Trump postponed for 30 days the 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports scheduled to be applied on 4 March. Yesterday morning, he cancelled the postponement and stated the 25% tariff would go into effect on March 4. He also stated tariffs will increase 10% tomorrow on goods coming from China.   The market’s fear is Mexico, being the number one buyer of U.S. corn, will slap a tariff on U.S. corn imports. That is certainly possible, but Mex

Highlights It is 6 January. The latest day in January the soybean market started its January sell-off was 12 January. The second latest date was 7 January. Nothing is 100% in this business, but the South American weather over the weekend was not any better than expected and probably worse and the forecast for the next 10 days is definitely no improvement for crops.    However, do not think for one second that South America is going to have anything less than an all-time large

Tidbits The American economy  expanded at a healthy 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter of 2024 on strong consumer spending and a surge in exports, the government said Wednesday, leaving unchanged its initial estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter, which was 0.2% less growth than in the second quarter.   U.S. GDP expansion has topped 2% for 8 of the last 9 quarters. The Commerce Department will issue its final third quarter 2024 GDP report on Dec. 19.   Consumer spendi

Highlights Late Saturday afternoon, three of Libya’s oilfields received instructions to resume production, engineers at the fields told Reuters. A standoff between rival political factions shut most of the country's oil fields last week. The resumption order was made by the fields' operator, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which did not provide any reasons, according to the engineers. A struggle to control the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) sparked a blockade of oil production and

Highlights Most markets except financials will be closed on Monday, September 2, due to the Labor Day holiday. Trade will resume Monday evening. The U.S. Department of Commerce revised second quarter GDP up 0.2% to +3.0% of growth. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was +1.4%. Consumer spending rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus 1.5% in the first quarter 2024. U.S. jobs figures yesterday show the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits slipped last week, bu

Highlights The grain industry has been bad-mouthing China’s economic outlook which the grain industry says will greatly reduce China’s demand for grain and everything else. Yet economic data the past month has all been better than the market expected. This morning, we got the purchasing managers index (PMI), which is a forward looking economic indicator. A PMI above 50 means the economy will expand in the coming month.   The manufacturing PMI was expected to be 49.3, down fro

Tidbits S&P Global is projecting this year’s corn yield at 182.5 bushels (USDA 181) for a crop of 15.23 billion bushels!   Lance traveled 350 miles across Southern Minnesota Wednesday. He expected to see poor crops, but he was surprised how poor. He estimated 75% of corn and bean acres were just plain bad. Just about every field had water standing somewhere in it. Many corn fields had corn ankle high, knee high, and waist high with a lot of pale to yellow corn plants.   The r

Market Comment Kevin Duling from Maupin, Oregon sent these comments to his clients yesterday afternoon about the USDA numbers: "After the selloff, I assumed numbers were horrible. They were not that bad. In fact, when it comes to the corn/soy acreage, 3.6 million acres of the total corn had not been planted as of June 1 and 12.8 million acres of soybeans had not been planted. It is very likely that at least 1-2 million acres each of corn and soybeans did not get planted becau

Analysis of Friday’s Carnage Benson Quinn Commodities said the biggest surprise on Friday was USDA apparently delaying release with no warning. If the report was delayed and no one knew the numbers, why was corn down 19¢ and beans up 7¢ when the report was released?   As we reported yesterday, the USDA said there were 3.36 million acres of corn and 12.767 million acres of beans left to be planted when USDA completed their survey. What we did not see was a note in the fine pri

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release its Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Inventory as of June 1st, and US Wheat Production.   Market expectations for today’s reports are that acres and stocks will be up. Corn acreage average expectation is at 90.3 million vs. 90 in March; bean acres are estimated at 86.75 million vs. 86.5 in March; spring wheat acres are estimated at 11.34 million, up slightly from March intentions of 11.335 million.   Markets w

Highlights OPEC+ members agreed yesterday to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter of 2024 as OPEC+ tries to counter concerns over poor global growth and rising crude production by non-members.   Chevron has suspended biodiesel production operations at its plants in Ralston, Iowa, and Madison, Wisconsin due to a lack of profitability. The two plants can collectively produce 50 million gallons of biodiesel per year.   The price

Highlights Yesterday concluded the averaging of the Revenue Assurance. So far, the averages are $4.66 for corn, $11.56 for beans and $6.84 for HRS wheat.   Wildfires raging in the Texas Panhandle have destroyed grain in storage bins and likely killed tens of thousands of livestock, state Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said in an interview on Thursday. It is the largest in Texas history and burning grazing lands covered with years of grass are helping to fuel the fire. Ti

The USDA will issue its December S&D on Friday at 11 AM Central Time. There will be no adjustments for US 2023 crops, just demand adjustments for US crops. There will be production and demand adjustments for worldwide crop production. The market will not expect major changes in South American production, nor do we. It is too early in the growing season. However, we know the safrinha corn crop will be significantly smaller than last year, but since it has not been planted yet

Crop Feedback Received the following last evening from Clint, and we thank him for taking the time to give this crop report: "Roger, we took a family vacation from just north of Cincinnati, Ohio to near Ludington, Michigan. Just driving by I thought crops looked great. Going up last week, I could see quite a bit of corn that hadn't tasseled yet, coming home today, much of it has tasseled and things still looked great. A few places showing some drought stress, but honestly bet

Highlights Banking regulators decided Friday afternoon First Republic Bank cannot be saved; there is no more time to pursue a rescue through the private sector. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said it was preparing to place First Republic Bank under receivership. Saturday morning, FDIC asked banks for their best and final offers by this afternoon to take over First Republic Bank. JP Morgan and PNC are the most likely bidders. Several other banks, including Ba