BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if no rain comes this week. Weather Monday night poured down rain in Western Pennsylvania.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mts of old crop (2024) soybeans to China.     Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean numbers unchanged. He has corn at 15.09 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 182.5 bushels (USDA 15.186 & 183.6) and his soybean numbers at 4.44

Highlights Cash crude oil was $2.91 higher and futures were $2.76 higher yesterday for several reasons: Expectations Israel will hit Iran’s crude oil fields and refineries (not likely to happen). Oil platforms shutting down as Hurricane Milton moves across the Gulf of Mexico.   For the second consecutive week, the largest speculative short position held by speculators. Ukraine said it had struck a major offshore oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea. China announced its eco

Highlights Late last evening local time, Iran reportedly launched 186 missiles at Israel, which the Iranian regime said was in retaliation to the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel. Israeli air defense capabilities were actively engaging the incoming Iranian munitions, but warned the defense network is not airtight and urged civilians to follow safety advisories from the Israeli military’s Home Front Command. That news sent crude oil cash prices more than $3 hig

Highlights This is Friday before a harvest weekend. Look at the weather across the Corn Belt and decide if pre-hedging pressure is a reason for you to make a minor adjustment to your marketing plan for the day. Also, the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is Monday at 10 AM Mountain Time.      Chinese leaders pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet their economic growth target of 5%. There are reports that China is considering injecting 1 trillion yuan of capita

Highlights Oil prices posted a second weekly gain as bullish sentiment builds and the prospect of a prolonged price rally becomes increasingly likely according to oilprice.com  analysts.   The fact that the US Federal Reserve has at last initiated a new cycle of monetary easing should have prompted a stronger market response. With a weaker dollar and an improved macro risk outlook, next week could see further upside as crude oil inventories in the United States have dropped t

Highlights Compared to July, the NOPA August crush decreased 14% to 158.008 million bu. The market expected 171.325! The August crush was down 2% from a year ago. This is the lowest August total since 2017 and the lowest monthly total since September 2021. Soybean crush for marketing year just completed set monthly records for 10 out of the 12 months.    The soy oil inventory on August 31st was 1.138 billion pounds, down from 1.499 billion last month. The market expected 1.35

Highlights The supply of US refinery products in the US Gulf Coast, especially the 3 million barrel per day Louisiana refining capacity, has been largely unaffected by Hurricane Francine, with Shell’s Norco and Citgo’s Lake Charles refinery reporting no damage and returning to normal operations.   A large amount of Libyan production remains shut-down after UN-brokered talks have collapsed; production is now 1.5 million barrels per day.   The following chart is the inventory o

Highlights All the weakness in crude oil prices is based upon the gloom and doom predictions for the worlds’ economy, most especially China’s economy, whose industrial PMI for September was 50.4, up 0.6 from July. As far as the US economy goes, who thinks lower interest rates coming in less than two weeks will slow down economic growth?   Goldman Sachs cut its expected crude oil price range by $5 a barrel for 2025. They expect crude to average $80 per barrel next year with a

Highlights Crude oil was supported yesterday by Saudi Arabia's decision to recommend OPEC+ postpone production increase in October. However, the worldwide doom and gloom crowd continues to bad-mouth crude oil demand.   China requested the US immediately lift the tariffs on Chinese goods. Reuters News reports President Biden is expected to decide in the coming days about increasing tariffs on Chinese products.    French wheat growers’ group predicts their soft wheat production

Highlights Libya has yet to resume oil exports one week after the Haftar clan blocked production in a bid to gain leverage over a battle to control the Central Bank. Six engineers told the Pan-Arab newspaper that exports remained halted at six ports although some production was being increased to feed local power generation and ease fuel shortages.   According to S&P Global, up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude output has been restored at three eastern fields under the cont

Highlights Late Saturday afternoon, three of Libya’s oilfields received instructions to resume production, engineers at the fields told Reuters. A standoff between rival political factions shut most of the country's oil fields last week. The resumption order was made by the fields' operator, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which did not provide any reasons, according to the engineers. A struggle to control the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) sparked a blockade of oil production and

CBOT will reopen Monday evening at normal time. Tidbits Crude oil prices were more than $2 lower yesterday due to economic concerns in China and the news OPEC+ is considering increasing production in October. The Energy Information Agency reporting U.S. oil demand in June was the lowest seasonally since 2020 added selling pressure. Note that Libya’s daily crude oil production is down 700,000 barrels per day from a week ago and expected to be down 1.1 million bpd next week.  

Highlights Statistics Canada reported yesterday the 2024 Canadian corn crop is 15.229 million mts, down 1.2% from last year. The average estimate was 14.967 million mts with a range of 14.6-15.4 million. The Canadian soybean production is 7.15 million mts, up 2.4% from 2023, but 58,000 mts less than the average estimate. The range of estimates was 6.9 and 7.45 million mts. All wheat production at 34.373 million mts, 752,000 mts less than expected, but considerably more than t

Highlights There was no agreement on Sunday in the Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Egypt . Neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to...

Highlights Farmers and agronomists are sounding the alarm that Tar Spot is becoming quite a problem once again in the far Eastern Corn Belt. We recommend you check your fields as many folks have been very surprised by the intensity of the Tar Spot disease in their corn fields treated a month ago.   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its USA forecast for crude oil demand, although its price outlook for this year and next has been revised down.   The EIA no

Highlights The Commerce Department reported yesterday morning the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May, matching market expectations. The data likely sets the stage for the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, as the market widely expects.   In the 12 months ending in June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May.   The inflation news

Highlights Oilprice.com reported yesterday morning that the withdrawal of US President Joe Biden from the re-election campaign has left the oil market confused, with oil price trading to its lowest price in a month. That does not make sense, but there it is in print. The oil gurus at oilprice.com say the low price is not for lack of potentially bullish signals. Normally, Israel’s attack on Yemen and promises of retaliation as well as China cutting its short-term interest rate

Highlights All three wheat classes were lower yesterday, but the price free-fall was stopped by Egypt and Algeria submitted tenders to buy wheat. However, many wheat market analysts expect wheat to continue in a down trend as Northern Hemisphere harvest progress is more rapid and larger than normal. Despite the USDA increasing the size of the world wheat production by 5.5 million mts last Friday, the world will still produce less wheat than it uses this marketing year for the

Highlights Eduardo Vanin reported Sunday grain export traders in Brazil are planning to extend the soybean export program through July, and possibly into August because farmers are selling very little corn, but they are selling enough soybeans to load some ships. Kory Melby expects Brazil will soon be out of beans.   Argentine farmers’ soybean sales stalled in June, the head of the country’s crushing and export chamber (CIARA-CEC) told Reuters, down 45% from May’s sales as a

Announcements The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crush for May will be released around noon today. It is expected to be a record large soybean crush number for the month of May.   No CBOT trading from the close on Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday evening 7 PM Central. It is a Joe Biden created Federal holiday called Juneteenth, the day in 1965 when the news reached Texas the War Between the States was over.   July CBOT options expire at the close of CBOT trad