BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Asia markets opened today with an increasingly bullish global backdrop fueled by continued strength in U.S. stocks, but with local sentiment more circumspect due to the uncertainty surrounding China's deep-rooted economic problems, but China continues to address those problems.   The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its loan prime rates today as Beijing's latest move in a series of monetary, fiscal, and liquidity support measures to shore up the imploding pro

Highlights Yesterday’s U.S. commodity market was down on harvest pressure and China sent a record 125 military aircraft to encircle Taiwan “as a resolute punishment for Taiwan’s president's continuous fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ nonsense.”     The commodity markets fear that politicians may pull a Jimmy Carter stunt and “punish” China like Carter punished the Soviet Union for its Christmas Eve 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. On 4 January 1980, Carter banned U.S. grain

Tidbits Independent financial news service, Caixin Global, reported China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced yesterday policies for local governments to buy land and housing from property developers and promised intensive support to help localities with their hidden debts.   These highly anticipated fiscal measures are expected to complement a slate of monetary and other initiatives announced by the country’s central bank last month to boost the sluggish economic recovery.

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 198,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. On its weekly tender, Japan bought 137,000 mts of milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. Saudi Arabia is still looking for 295,000 mts of hard milling (bread) wheat.   Estimates for yesterday morning’s employment report were forecasting an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings, and an unchan

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. It will show the inventory of all commodities as of September first and there could be some production and consumption adjustments made for any of the past three marketing years. In other words, there could be some big surprises. We expect some serious long futures profit-taking and cash selling of corn and beans before the report comes out.    The ten-day weather forecast showed ra

Tidbits Yesterday, China announced more stimulus measures to try to reach a 2024 economic growth target of 5%. China added ~$284 billion equivalent in bonds and cut bank reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. The three-month interest rate was down to 1.5%, and their one-year interest rate is now at 2%. By comparison, the one-year interest rate here in the U.S. for government one year T-Bills is at 3.96%.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 20,000 mts o

Highlights After cutting interest rates 10 basis points Monday, yesterday China’s Central Bank presented the largest stimulus package since the pandemic to bolster economic growth in the country, lowering borrowing costs, cutting mortgage interest rates, smaller bank reserves, free money for certain industries and groups of people, etc. Their stocks and bonds ripped to their highest trade in more than two years, which contributed greatly to higher CBOT commodities yesterday m

Highlights Monday’s corn and bean trade will most likely be dominated by weekend harvest yield reports. Here is a start:   Dave in Northeast Illinois: "We have cut about a third of our beans; they are just not there, period. Yes, everyone has that one good field. We have cut more mid-40 beans than over 50; 9 to 10% moisture."   Jason Britt, President of U.S. Commodities in Kansas City: "Hearing more soybean yields that are "disappointing". In no way a disaster, but the poor f

Highlights It is unusual that no rain has fallen nor predicted by the middle of September for Rondonópolis, an area in Brazil's top grain producing state of Mato Grosso in the heart of its prime soybean and corn area. Rain has fallen the past few days in the far north and west areas of Mato Grosso.     We report daily the number of days rain is expected in the ten day forecast for Rondonópolis, which normally receives sporadic showers 10 to 14 days before the rainy season beg

Highlights Libya has yet to resume oil exports one week after the Haftar clan blocked production in a bid to gain leverage over a battle to control the Central Bank. Six engineers told the Pan-Arab newspaper that exports remained halted at six ports although some production was being increased to feed local power generation and ease fuel shortages.   According to S&P Global, up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude output has been restored at three eastern fields under the cont

Tidbits Soft red winter wheat made a key reversal yesterday, which occurs when the price of a stock or commodity makes a new low and closes higher than the previous day’s high. It can also be made on weekly charts and a key reversal on a weekly chart is considered a more reliable trend change indicator.   A key reversal was a respected technical indicator of trend change until 2023 and 2024. Corn, wheat, and beans have had multiple key reversals the past 14 months. But someda

Highlights After gaining more than $3 on Monday, then losing $2.62 the next two days before gaining $1.15 on Thursday, crude oil prices fell more than $2.50 before recovering about a buck on Friday when China's Premier Li Qiang said great efforts must be made to boost the faltering economy. China’s economic data Friday morning (on Thursday night Eastern time) showed China's economy had “lost momentum” with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial

Highlights Stock markets around the world rebounded Tuesday from Monday’s terrible losses led by Japanese stocks. After losing 12% on Monday, stocks rallied 10.23% on Tuesday for their third biggest daily gain on record.   The Secretary General of the Shiite Hezbollah said yesterday: "Strikes against Israel are being prepared from Iran, Yemen and Lebanon, and they will certainly be carried out. Our joint response will be strong, sensitive and effective. We did not seek milita

Highlights The grain industry has been bad-mouthing China’s economic outlook which the grain industry says will greatly reduce China’s demand for grain and everything else. Yet economic data the past month has all been better than the market expected. This morning, we got the purchasing managers index (PMI), which is a forward looking economic indicator. A PMI above 50 means the economy will expand in the coming month.   The manufacturing PMI was expected to be 49.3, down fro

Highlights Fears that China’s economy will falter and substantially reduce demand for imports of everything has been a consistent bearish theme since 2020 and the intensity increased in 2024. The real estate developers’ crushing debt has been milked for all its worth by everyone who wants grain prices to go down.   One of the two biggest developers, Evergrande, filed bankruptcy in 2023 in the USA and a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande assets to be liquidated 6 months ago. T

Highlights The US dollar rallied sharply yesterday midday trade at its highest level since May 1st.   With the exception of North Dakota, the weather outlook was not so bad in the Corn Belt, so profit-taking on a Friday after two up-days in corn and beans.   The government weather gurus have announced that the El Nino episode has officially ended and the world is in a state of ENSO-neutral conditions, but La Niña is coming, probably a month later than expected a month ago. Sa

Acid Rains Twenty or so years ago, acid rain, according to the world’s governments and environmentalists, was going to kill us all. Acid rain was acidic because sulfur dioxide (SO2) was washed out of the atmosphere by the rain. The result was ULSD and ocean ship fuel regulations were introduced in 2020, which sharply reduced sulfur dioxide pollution. Ocean freighters burn a huge amount of fossil fuels 247.     Now, scientists say reduced levels of SO2 may have made the ocean

Highlights The first crop condition report is expected Monday from USDA and the anticipation of high crop condition ratings for US corn, beans and spring wheat pressured the market yesterday. Analysts say the weather outlook is nearly ideal into the middle of June.   Yesterday’s USA PCE (personal consumption expenditure) Price Index for April was +0.2%, as expected, and up 2.8% on an annualized basis, just as expected. This report’s core reading is the Fed’s favored inflation

Highlights Milling wheat in Paris was up $8 per mt (~21.5¢ per bu) due to expectations Russia’s wheat crop will be reduced to the low 80 something mil. mts., possibly less than 80. That crop is made or lost in June, harvest begins on or about July 1st.   247AG reports Mexico is buying so much USA corn because there are experiencing their worst drought since 2011.       Eduardo Vanin of Agrinvest Commodities summarized his conversation yesterday with farmers in Brazil: "Produc