BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Libya has yet to resume oil exports one week after the Haftar clan blocked production in a bid to gain leverage over a battle to control the Central Bank. Six engineers told the Pan-Arab newspaper that exports remained halted at six ports although some production was being increased to feed local power generation and ease fuel shortages.   According to S&P Global, up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude output has been restored at three eastern fields under the cont

Tidbits Soft red winter wheat made a key reversal yesterday, which occurs when the price of a stock or commodity makes a new low and closes higher than the previous day’s high. It can also be made on weekly charts and a key reversal on a weekly chart is considered a more reliable trend change indicator.   A key reversal was a respected technical indicator of trend change until 2023 and 2024. Corn, wheat, and beans have had multiple key reversals the past 14 months. But someda

Highlights After gaining more than $3 on Monday, then losing $2.62 the next two days before gaining $1.15 on Thursday, crude oil prices fell more than $2.50 before recovering about a buck on Friday when China's Premier Li Qiang said great efforts must be made to boost the faltering economy. China’s economic data Friday morning (on Thursday night Eastern time) showed China's economy had “lost momentum” with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial

Highlights Stock markets around the world rebounded Tuesday from Monday’s terrible losses led by Japanese stocks. After losing 12% on Monday, stocks rallied 10.23% on Tuesday for their third biggest daily gain on record.   The Secretary General of the Shiite Hezbollah said yesterday: "Strikes against Israel are being prepared from Iran, Yemen and Lebanon, and they will certainly be carried out. Our joint response will be strong, sensitive and effective. We did not seek milita

Highlights The grain industry has been bad-mouthing China’s economic outlook which the grain industry says will greatly reduce China’s demand for grain and everything else. Yet economic data the past month has all been better than the market expected. This morning, we got the purchasing managers index (PMI), which is a forward looking economic indicator. A PMI above 50 means the economy will expand in the coming month.   The manufacturing PMI was expected to be 49.3, down fro

Highlights Fears that China’s economy will falter and substantially reduce demand for imports of everything has been a consistent bearish theme since 2020 and the intensity increased in 2024. The real estate developers’ crushing debt has been milked for all its worth by everyone who wants grain prices to go down.   One of the two biggest developers, Evergrande, filed bankruptcy in 2023 in the USA and a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande assets to be liquidated 6 months ago. T

Highlights The US dollar rallied sharply yesterday midday trade at its highest level since May 1st.   With the exception of North Dakota, the weather outlook was not so bad in the Corn Belt, so profit-taking on a Friday after two up-days in corn and beans.   The government weather gurus have announced that the El Nino episode has officially ended and the world is in a state of ENSO-neutral conditions, but La Niña is coming, probably a month later than expected a month ago. Sa

Acid Rains Twenty or so years ago, acid rain, according to the world’s governments and environmentalists, was going to kill us all. Acid rain was acidic because sulfur dioxide (SO2) was washed out of the atmosphere by the rain. The result was ULSD and ocean ship fuel regulations were introduced in 2020, which sharply reduced sulfur dioxide pollution. Ocean freighters burn a huge amount of fossil fuels 247.     Now, scientists say reduced levels of SO2 may have made the ocean

Highlights The first crop condition report is expected Monday from USDA and the anticipation of high crop condition ratings for US corn, beans and spring wheat pressured the market yesterday. Analysts say the weather outlook is nearly ideal into the middle of June.   Yesterday’s USA PCE (personal consumption expenditure) Price Index for April was +0.2%, as expected, and up 2.8% on an annualized basis, just as expected. This report’s core reading is the Fed’s favored inflation

Highlights Milling wheat in Paris was up $8 per mt (~21.5¢ per bu) due to expectations Russia’s wheat crop will be reduced to the low 80 something mil. mts., possibly less than 80. That crop is made or lost in June, harvest begins on or about July 1st.   247AG reports Mexico is buying so much USA corn because there are experiencing their worst drought since 2011.       Eduardo Vanin of Agrinvest Commodities summarized his conversation yesterday with farmers in Brazil: "Produc

Highlights Rice is the top competitor with wheat in the world marketplace and in the domestic markets of Asia. India and China are the world’s leading producers of rice and wheat. For three years, El Niño has battered Indian farmlands, causing prolonged droughts and significant decline in crop yields, including wheat and especially rice, a Kakinada-based rice exporter said. So, the return of La Niña is welcomed by farmers and grain merchants.   La Niña is expected to make a s

Highlights June CBOT options expire tomorrow. Yesterday, China soybean futures traded at highs for the year at the equivalent of $15.27 per bushel. The chatter yesterday was that as many as 8 shiploads of US soybeans were booked to be shipped out of the PNW ports to China.     Yes, we really think beans will get to $13+. Corn in China is in a nice uptrend, there is some reason for optimism:

Highlights Recent frosts in Ukraine have not caused significant damage to grain and oilseed crops, a state weather forecaster said on Tuesday.   Ukraine experienced several waves of frost between May 1 and May 16, said Tetiana Adamenko, head of the forecaster’s agriculture department, adding that May frosts are a common occurrence.   “There is some damage to early seedlings of corn and sunflower, but it is all very localized. As of today, we have no information that crops hav

Highlights Soybean open interest increased more than 25,000 contracts on Friday's rally. Only one day in the past year (Mid-Feb) was there a larger increase in soybean open interest. More friendly soybean news in today’s Weekly Basis.   While many analysts and cash grain merchandisers are bad mouthing the soybean price outlook because there are no US bean sales on the books to China. However, there have been 890.7 million new crop bushels booked for export and most of those b

Tidbits Open interest refers to the number of trade positions on the books. The past two days saw the largest increase in open interest of crude oil call options in history. More than 350,000 crude oil call positions were established, surpassing the record of 2019.   Israel will hold a meeting of the Military Cabinet of Ministers today. This will be the 3rd meeting since the attack by Iran over the weekend. The final decision on the military response is expected to be today.

Upcoming Reports CONAB is Brazil’s USDA and it will issue its monthly crop production report early Thursday morning followed by USDA’s at noon Eastern time. There are rumors in the market that CONAB's corn production numbers may be reduced much more than the market expects. Analysts say the USDA, on the other hand, is showing a “more optimistic scenario than reality” as Brazil has a very significant reduction of safrinha corn acres.   USDA's National Agricultural Statistical

Highlights StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reported yesterday afternoon India shocked the global urea market by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724,000 mts to 340,000 mts. Seldom does India buy less than a million mts and often purchases ~1.5 million mts 8 to 10 times a year.   The May urea futures price (FOB NOLA) was down $30 per ton to $272.50 yesterday. There is no daily limit on urea futures. A month ago, May urea futures price was $340 per ton.      Ba

Highlights Yesterday’s end of the day comments from a grain merchandiser: "There was little fresh news today making it difficult to explain away the higher markets today."     And then he reports: "Wheat was the upside leader as Russia and Black Sea region is dry while France is too wet.   Weekly ethanol production was up 1.8% from the prior week and was up 7.0% from a year ago. Production was record high for the period averaging 1.073 million gallons per day.    Corn is seei

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Highlights The weather forecast in South America was better for crops in some areas and worse in others, but the bottom line is the traders wanted to reduce their long positions with the USDA reports coming on Thursday that will impact old crop prices with the inventory report and new crop prices with the acreage report. We do not do any grain marketing before the report. We can see that the acres may be a bit bearish corn and inventory may be friendly for corn and beans. In