BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Nothing in yesterday's numbers changed our outlook for prices in 2023. On yesterday’s reports, USDA did: Reduced Argentina’s corn crop by 5 million mts to 47 million and left Brazil’s corn crop unchanged at 125 million mt, the net change was pretty much expected. Reduced Argentina’s soybean crop by 4.5 million mt to 41 million and left Brazil’s corn production unchanged at 153 million mt. Raised Australia’s old wheat crop 1.4 million mt, to a record 38 million,

Highlights The Federal Reserve increased its base interest rate 25 basis points (one-fourth of 1%) yesterday as expected. The market acted like it was expecting a larger increase as the dollar index went sharply lower after the news and commodity prices recovered. Brazil's soybean January exports were 850,000 mts, down 65% from a year ago. Rain every day is a problem at harvest time. The U.S. ag attaché in Argentina slashed its estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 36

Highlights India announced yesterday morning it will auction government owned wheat to retard domestic prices. That news shot wheat prices higher. Perhaps somebody will remind the world that 2023 will be the fourth consecutive year that the world carryover will be smaller than the year before. On the other hand, Russia said 94% of their winter wheat is rated good with sufficient snow cover for insultation and water. The US will send 31 M1 Abram tanks to Ukraine and Germany

Highlights The UN Secretary-General who is at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the world economy is in sad shape with multiple negative issues, which compound each other. The debate about the US debt ceiling is always a negative for markets. The Democrats are saying the Republicans are willing to stop social security checks, medicare payments and default on the national debt. It did not help attitudes when Microsoft and Amazon both laid-off 10,000

After Friday’s normal closing time, CBOT will not reopen until Monday evening in observance of MLK. Highlights The USDA will dump a truck load of numbers at 10 AM Mountain Time today. We do not expect any big surprises, but if there is one (or more) surprise, we expect it will be bullish in the form the USDA will say the US grain inventory is less than the market expects and/or the South American crops are smaller than expected. Any bearish news will be a gift opportunity for

About 2023 new crop Justin asked: "What’s your 2023 new crop recommendations? Will u be putting those out soon? Or do u wait until old crop recs have been filled? I’m fairly new to your program so just asking. Thanks." We will begin tracking new crop beans and corn outlook after the January 12th S&D with the final 2022 production estimates. We do not want anyone pricing new crops until they know their cost of inputs. Inflation of farm supplies and machinery in the 1970’s res

Tidbits More than 150 missles plus an unknown number of Iranian drones hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure yesterday. People in Nigeria are wading through fast-flowing water, holding one another to avoid being swept away. The torrent was, until recently, the East-West Road in Nigeria's Rivers state, the gateway to the nation's oil and gas. Now parts of Rivers, along with large swaths of 32 other states, are inundated by the worst flooding in 12 years. Nigeria is a major crud

Highlights The hospitals in China will have more than 5.8 million beds occupied during the current epidemic. Deaths in the big cities are running 4 to 8 times the normal rate. The largest port city, Shanghai, is in the worst shape. None-the-less, the top brass of China’s government said yesterday morning total quarantines or lock-downs will not be re-introduced until after a review in February, if even then. It is clear that lock-downs to control contagious diseases are like

Highlights Before December 5th, every controlled nuclear reaction that has ever occurred in this world produced a huge amount of energy from very little fuel by atomic fission, the destruction of an atom’s nucleus (uranium) to form smaller atoms. Since 1909, scientists have known nuclear fusion was possible. Fusion reactions fuse (join) two or more atoms together to form an atom with slightly lighter mass (weight in gravity) than the combined mass of the atoms that were fuse

Highlights Ukrainian drones struck a third Russian airfield hundreds of kilometers into Russia. The range of the drone attack surprised a lot of people; but just another escalation of the war. Yesterday, China announced sweeping changes to its COVID policy; the people have more freedom to circulate than any time the past three, yes, three years! That is bullish beans and crude oil as they will be able to get back to work consuming more of everything, but remember, the anticip

Highlights The House of Representatives passed a resolution yesterday to force the adoption of the agreement by the railroads and the unions and passed a second resolution requiring the railroads to allow seven days of sick leave for the union members. The Senate must approve both measures for it to be sent to the White House for Biden to sign. Will the Senate pass the same two bills? Probably. Will Biden sign it? Probably. Will all of the above happen within a matter of days

Highlights Vegetable oil (palm, soybean, canola, sunflower, and five more) prices are now directly tied to the price of crude oil because of the growing use of biofuels. Oilseed producers need to track the fundamentals and technical factors of crude oil to improve marketing of oilseeds. Low sulfur distillate stocks (heating oil and diesel fuel) are down 14% from the previous year, and more bean oil will be needed to stretch diesel supplies. Brazil’s President-elect Lula's tra

Highlights Everyone except a few people in Ukraine’s government, agree Russia did not attack Poland. But the Biden Administration issued the following statement yesterday mid-day: Regardless of the outcome of the investigation into the incident, it is clear that Russia is ultimately responsible for this tragic incident, which fired missiles specifically designed to hit civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. USDA reported yesterday morning the sale of: 150,000 mts of hard red sp

Highlights The USDA numbers were very neutral. There were no changes to the national average prices expected to be paid to farmers for corn, wheat or soybeans. The USDA did not reduce corn exports and did not raise Russian wheat production. Big surprise! The UN is negotiating a year long deal for the export of Ukrainian grain and the market actually thinks it will happen and speculators are selling wheat. Big mistake! Russia said it is withdrawing troops from west of the

Highlights Lloyd's of London insurer, Ascot, is once again quoting cargo insurance for the Black Sea grain corridor, their lead underwriter said on Wednesday. Unconfirmed report is China will relax its zero tolerance COVID policy beginning tomorrow. To what extent the relaxation will be was not stated. This is bullish crude oil, beans, bio fuels and thus corn. Tidbits As expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the fed fund interest rate 75 basis points (3/4%) for the f

Highlights A surprise for the day is water levels on the Lower Mississippi are actually higher than they were last week. Somebody must have opened some gates up stream last week. La Niña will take a break. Both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day weather forecasts predict above to much above normal rainfall from Indiana all the way to the West Coast. Consistent decent rainfall for two weeks will slow the last of the harvest, which will firm the basis and support futures price

Yield Report from Grand Forks County, Northeast North Dakota: "Best yielding beans, by far, I have ever grown. Yields are running 45 to 70 bushels." (State average 35 bushels) Thanks, Dexter Highlights A rumor late yesterday morning was Russia was close to agreeing to an extension of the Ukraine Grain Export corridor. That sent CBOT wheat from 12 cents higher to 12 cents lower. Tidbits Soybean crush futures made contract highs (again) yesterday. Vomitoxin in corn in the East

Highlights "Roger, some yield info for you. These numbers should cover a large area of at least southern and eastern Nebr., yields west are worse yet. I’ll just give you our data as I know its accurate. Dryland beans mostly 25-30, a couple fields touched 40 that were planted into wheat stubble. I have heard of a lot of beans in the teens, we no-till so that helps our yields. Irrigated beans 65-72, should be 72-85+. Dryland corn, first field- 78. Last year just across the ro

Highlights Carrol County, West Central Iowa Yield Report: I took a field of corn out. Average 235 dry. It was green snap and Goosenecked bad from July 5 storm. Slow going, but very happy with the yield. Thanks, Dan. Clark County, West Central Ohio where the weather has been very good most of the year: Early maturity beans on several farms running 62 to 67 bushels, about the same as full season beans. A 60+ year old neighbor thinks his corn and beans will be the best yieldi

Highlights The railroad unions will delay their strike vote until Sep 29 to allow more time for a settlement to be reached. Today the USDA will release 4 weeks or export sales information at 7:30 AM Central time. It could rattle the markets a bit. This is the first day it is legal to plant soybeans in the Central area of Brazil. The heart of that bean area is Rondonópolis, the first location on our daily ten day forecast. Farmers will not plant until they are convinced the