BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

July Futures Expiration Today is the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on July CBOT contracts. After the close today, if any delivery notices are given to the CBOT for delivery on July futures, those deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long July positions after the close today. What does that mean for you? If you have July basis contracts, your merchandiser wants you to cash them out or roll to a deferred month before the market closes today. If y

Highlights July CBOT options expire today. The day before and the day options expire are usually down days for CBOT futures. President Biden at a west coast fundraiser called China’s President Xi a "dictator" Wednesday evening. Xi was not pleased one bit and he let the US Ambassador know that Biden’s comment was "political provocation." In hindsight, that added pressure to the soybeans yesterday on top of the biodiesel blending disappointment. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yel

Highlights The US Producer Price Index for May was reported yesterday morning a negative 0.3% versus the expected negative 0.1%; April was a plus 0.2%. As expected, for the first month since March of 2022, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday afternoon. China’s palm oil inventory has declined 12 consecutive weeks. That is one of the reasons soybean oil has gained 12¢ a pound (27%) so far this month.

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS run showed a slightly wetter Delta and a slightly drier Argentina. Last evening’s GFS run predicted western Central Wisconsin into Minnesota will get 6 to 7 inches (15.5 to 18 cm) of rain by June 23rd. the far west of Kentucky and Tennessee will get 9 to 11 inches of rain. Central Illinois slated for 1 to 2.3 inches Temperatures in the majority of the US are expected to be normal to below normal for the next 10 days, with rain expected twic

Highlights The OPEC+ meeting this Sunday was called by Saudi Arabia to chastise other members for pumping more crude oil than they agreed. Russia is at the top of the list of over-producers. In 1985, OPEC members agreed on production quotas. In early 1986, all OPEC members, except Saudi Arabia, were over-producing. In those days, Saudi Arabia was THE big hammer of crude oil production, bigger than they are now. To show the other OPEC members what real overproduction crude o

Highlights Talks between top-ranking Republicans and Democrats continue about the debt ceiling. Hawkish (aggressive, forceful) comments yesterday from Federal Reserve Governors Bullard and Kashkari raised expectations for a longer period of high interest rates or even higher rates. The US dollar, with the renewed prospect of higher interest rates, broke out to the top side of its range. Private Brazil Crop Analyst, Agroconsult, raised their projection for the second crop Br

Highlights Russia's Foreign Minister confirmed mid-day yesterday the Ukraine grain corridor deal was extended to July 18th. No one has said anything about sanctions against Russia being lifted. It is illogical Russia would back-down so easily. After all that tough talk that sanctions must be lifted to extend the grain deal, it appears Putin was willing to embarrass himself in order to keep his buddy, Turkey’s President Erdogan in office as he faces a run-off election May 28th

Highlights The April CPI (inflation at the retail level) shows the US inflation rate the past 12 months was 4.9%, below the expected 5.0%. This is the 10th consecutive monthly drop in the US inflation rate. We get the PPI (inflation at wholesale level) tomorrow. Note the chart of US inflation rate since 2005: We are 9 days into the CBOT May deliveries. There has not been any corn delivered on a May futures contract, not one. That is bullish, Folks, very bullish! USDA will is

For the dozens of you folks who have asked how to regain the financial loss resulting from buying fertilizer, diesel fuel and other inputs too soon, and not selling grain sooner, here is your chance to get that money back. Read the following carefully because this is possibly the most unique situation and opportunity you will ever have. Highlights Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked the Kremlin in Moscow in an attempt to kill Putin Wednesday morning. No one was hurt and t

Your futures broker and your merchandiser want all May futures positions and basis contracts liquidated or rolled by the close of business today. Friday is the first day the CBOT will issue delivery assignments to the oldest long May contract futures contract on the books; Friday is what the trade calls “First Notice Day” (FND). For CBOT ag contracts, FND is always the last business day of the calendar month preceding the futures contract month. To learn about how the deliver

Highlights Inspections of ships carrying grain from Ukraine resumed after two days of hassle. Russia's Ag Ministry sees Russian 2023 wheat production at 78 million mt, ~9 million mt less than SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) projected yesterday. China will auction-off another 1.5 million bushels of its state reserves of imported wheat on April 26 to keep a lid on domestic prices. China always replenishes its government reserves with imports. Some showers were added to the forecast f

Highlights The most important price outlook indicators for corn, wheat and beans without any reliable fundamental news from the USDA is carry (daily), basis (weekly) and technical outlook. Let’s take a look at the May to July carry for the first three days this week: Corn: May gained 4½¢ on the July = Bullish Beans: May gained 11¼¢ on the July = Bullish Soft red winter wheat: May gained 5¢ on the July = Bullish Hard red winter wheat: May lost ½¢ on the July = steady with a

Highlights There was a lot of US and world economic news yesterday. While none of it was terrible, none of it was as “good” as expected. For example, unexpectedly, the Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 basis points (half a percent). Argentina did announce its third soy/dollar deal, which begins Saturday. The conversion will be 300 pesos per US dollar vs. the official exchange rate of 210 pesos. That is a 42.5% over the market premium. Tha

Highlights Cargill and Viterra announced they will no longer export Russian grain as of beginning the new crop marketing year. That does not mean Russia will be shut-out of the wheat export market, but it will hurt them. The US wheat marketing year begins June 1st; the Russian wheat marketing year begins July 1st. USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 204,000 mts of old crop corn to China. That is the 11th old crop corn export sale in the last 12 days. All but one of

Highlights As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 25 basis points yesterday. The interest rate hike was considered friendly based on market action, but US Treasurer, Janet Yellen, said later yesterday the government is not considering insuring all uninsured bank deposits, something many analysts expected said would go a long way to bring confidence in the banking system. Tidbits USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 178,000 mts of old cro

Highlights Crude oil traded 80¢ to $1.22 higher most of Tuesday evening to about the start of the business day in Europe. Crude oil prices lost $6 before recovering almost $2 on the settlement. It traded lower than any time since early December of 2021 and is 50% of its price just 53 weeks ago. The reason for the weakness in crude oil was the irrational fear of a world-wide bank failure as the troubled Credit Suisse Bank was once again in the spotlight when Saudi Arabia’s ma

Highlights The USDA’s domestic corn and world corn carryover projections were both larger than expected. Corn finished the day down 8 to 9¢. The USDA’s domestic wheat and world wheat carryover projections were both less than expected. Soft red winter and hard red spring wheat finished the day down 9 to 11¢. Hard red winter was up 1 to down 5¢. The USDA’s domestic soybean and world soybean carryover projections were both less than expected. Soybeans finished the day up 2

Roger’s reference yesterday to Market Analyst Bill Crowder recommending his clients sell all corn and beans needs to be modified. Bill did send the email to his clients, but he was forwarding Bill Ryan’s email. Mr. Ryan’s email is: bill@crokerrhyne.com We apologize to Mr. Bill Crowder. Thanks, once again, John. Highlights Russia said they will not sign the Ukraine grain corridor deal unless Russia's agricultural and fertilizer producers are “taken into account.” With or witho

USDA 2023 Ag Outlook Forum The USDA 2023 Ag Outlook Forum took center stage yesterday, but it was not nearly as important as the market thinks it was. All these numbers, including acreages, will change a lot in the coming months. These numbers are simply the benchmarks from which market analysts will comment on for the next 12 months. One of the two things you need to know is the number of acres expected to be planted. Corn and wheat acres were higher than expected, but the

Highlights Yesterday morning's US retail sales were reported up 3% in January vs. expectations of 2%. Good economic news is bad news for commodity prices as the dollar index goes up… you know the drill. Brazil’s soybean basis has weakened about 40 cents a bushel this week. That was the main reason beans were so weak yesterday. The crushers are getting enough beans to fill their storage space and now the export buyers will be able to get some beans. Thus, the extended bean ex