Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Renewable fuel credits for 2026 hit record levels on Thursday and continued their run on Friday, driven by stronger Environmental Protection ​Agency biofuel mandates and widening price gaps between biodiesel and conventional diesel. Credits ‌tied to biodiesel and renewable diesel blending, known as D4 ⁠Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), rose to a record $2.32 on Friday. Before the EPA's mandates were announced on March 27, they ​were trading at around $1.50. T

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,032, +453 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $87.76, -8.84. Dollar Index settled at 98.94, -0.38. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,224, +233. Corn July futures settled at $4.46¾, -16½¢ for the week. December corn s

Tidbits Farm bankruptcies hit a six-year high in April, showing growing financial stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter-12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 130% jump from April 2025 and the highest monthly total since February 2020. Chapter 12 bankruptcy is a specialized legal framework designed specifically for "family farmers" or "family fishermen". It allows financially distressed agricultural producers to reorganize their debts and avoid liquidation, offering a

Corn has corrected/backfilled 44% of the entire up move from last August, and price has penetrated/closed below the number 1 high of 453.0. This price action suggests corn is retracing the whole rally from number 1, not a smaller correction from number 4. If buyers do not return quickly, then we may be in a longer term backfill (weeks). As we all know, anything can happen in these grain markets. The E wave could be the A of a double 3 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) What if the bulls come in

Tidbits As we recently stated, corn and bean futures decline after the market gets comfortable that those crops will get planted. It is highly probable corn, beans, and wheat will see a gain 50% to 62% of what they have lost since 13 May. That is the standard technical retracement and profit-taking. The longest sunlight day of the year for the Corn Belt is three weeks from Monday. Soil moisture disappears very fast with 16 to 17 hours of daylight and warm to hot day time temp

Tidbits National Weather Service 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts predict much above normal temperatures with normal rainfall for the northern half of the U.S., as of last evening. China expects El Niño weather effects to peak in autumn and winter this year, before weakening in spring next year. Iran: A tentative 60-day ‘memorandum of understanding’ has been reached to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear negotiations with Iran, pending approval from President Trump. U.

Tidbits December corn closed below its key technical support level of $4.80¼ yesterday. We discussed this technical situation on Tuesday when we stated December corn was no longer in an uptrend but was in a sideways trading range until it either traded above $5.06½ or below $4.80¼. Yesterday’s settlement was $4.77½. December corn is now in a down trend using the technical analysis system of higher highs and higher lows versus lower highs and lower lows. Barchart.com’s 13 tech

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Soybeans: Gaurav Kochar is a trader of cash commodities based in India. He reported yesterday a major shift in the world soybean market as India cancelled 25,000 mts of soymeal export contracts and bought 80,000 mts of soybean to import from Africa. It was 5 years ago the last time India imported soybeans. While India is not a big player in the world soybean market, when any world market player goes from an exporter to an importer, it changes the market significantly.

Tidbits Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement early yesterday morning officially confirming that no Iranian nuclear commitments and uranium handover exist or will exist in any draft agreement with the U.S., calling all reports that claim otherwise a "pure lie," making further talks pointless due to the U.S. insistence on this issue. The statement declares they are not signing any agreement with the U.S.; no one can claim we are close to reaching an agreement. Iran sepa

Tidbits Crude oil gapped lower on the opening last evening and traded more than $5 lower in the first half hour of trading on the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in a matter of days. Iran: President Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran. He played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough that had been raised on Saturday. Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 50,580, +1,054 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $96.6, -9.06. Dollar Index settled at 99.32, +0.05. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,991, -160. Corn July futures settled at $4.63¼, +7½¢ for the week. December corn s

Tidbits U.S. Crops: On this date in 2018, December corn futures made its high at $4.29. Its low was made on 18 September at $3.42. Four of the last six years, December corn made its high for the year before this date. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt received more than 3 inches (76 mm) in the 36 hours ending yesterday at midnight. University of Illinois ag economists report soybeans have turned profitable for Illinois farmers while corn remains in the red. Dr. Michael Cor

The soybean daily continuation chart remains with an uptrend in tact. After breaking up higher out of the trading range a few weeks ago, prices continue to remain above the upper breakout level. The previous sideways range was roughly from 1145.0 to 1180.0. A week ago Friday, the traders sold it down into this area briefly, but strong buying confirmed this support area between 1180.0 to 1171.0. I realize the grains often top out around these current calendar dates, at least t

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 225,000 mts of old crop corn and 268,700 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 50,000 mts of old crop corn and 60,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 117,000 mts of old crop soybean cake and 135,000 mts of new crop cake and meal to unknown The S&P 500 gained 0.4% this week, extending its winning streak to eight consecutive weeks, the longest since December 2023, while the Dow Jones added 294 points to reach an

Tidbits The CBOT grains will not trade again until Monday evening after the markets close today. The energy, equities, and interest rate futures will open normal times on Sunday. Energy futures will quit trading at 1:30 PM Monday and interest rate and equity futures will halt trading at noon Central Time Monday. China’s peak U.S. agriculture import year of $38 billion was 2022. They bought just $8 billion worth of agriculture products in 2025. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commo

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Mexico’s main meat industry group said yesterday it aims to double beef exports to the ‌United States next year, seeking to offset losses from a border closure triggered by a screwworm outbreak. In the first four months of the year, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. increased by about 23% according to officials of the Mexican ​Meat Chamber, who said fresh meat accounts for most of what is exported. The U.S. border has been closed to Mexican livestock for about a year.

Tidbits Market Comment: The CBOT markets were very disappointed last Thursday and Friday with the news from the Trump-Xi meeting. Essentially, there was no new news for corn, wheat, and soybean exports to China, which had already agreed in October to buy 25 million mts of U.S. soybeans in each of the next three marketing years beginning 1 September 2026. Given the price relationship of South American soybeans compared to U.S. soybeans, and China’s huge stockpile and productio