BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Statistics Canada reported yesterday the 2024 Canadian corn crop is 15.229 million mts, down 1.2% from last year. The average estimate was 14.967 million mts with a range of 14.6-15.4 million. The Canadian soybean production is 7.15 million mts, up 2.4% from 2023, but 58,000 mts less than the average estimate. The range of estimates was 6.9 and 7.45 million mts. All wheat production at 34.373 million mts, 752,000 mts less than expected, but considerably more than t

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, August 27 , 2024: September corn settled yesterday at $3.67¼, -7¾¢ since last Tuesday. December corn s

Tidbits Soft red winter wheat made a key reversal yesterday, which occurs when the price of a stock or commodity makes a new low and closes higher than the previous day’s high. It can also be made on weekly charts and a key reversal on a weekly chart is considered a more reliable trend change indicator.   A key reversal was a respected technical indicator of trend change until 2023 and 2024. Corn, wheat, and beans have had multiple key reversals the past 14 months. But someda

Highlights There was no agreement on Sunday in the Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Egypt . Neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to...

Highlights Question from a client: "Good day, Roger.   Reading your report last night, you mention the treasury department and their war on Russia's financial sector. They are targeting Russia's industries.   Oil, natural gas, and wheat are Russia's industries. The three markets that make absolutely zero sense to me the past 18 months are oil, natural gas, and wheat.   Funds supposedly covered 30% of their short position in wheat last week? Yet selling is increasing.   Am I c

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,175, +515.32 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $74.96, -1.64. Dollar Index  settled at 100.68, -1.72. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,762, +71 for the week. Corn September futures  at $3.67¾, -2¾¢ for the week. Basis   (U = Sept; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over September futures) (Futures price + Basis = C

Highlights Cease-fire negotiations for the Israel-Hamas war are set to begin today in Cairo. Israel has accepted a “bridging” agreement (a short-term contract) that would allow the two sides to hammer out the details of a cease-fire. Hamas has consistently demanded Israel withdraw its military forces from Gaza before any negotiations can begin.     On Friday, the U.S. Treasury and the State Departments sanctioned nearly 400 individuals and entities supporting Russian war effo

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights ProFarmer Tour results and comments by Reuters’ Karen Braun: Minnesota corn yield at 164.9 bu/acre, the tour's lowest since 2012 and down 9% from 2023. USDA has MN corn yield unchanged year-on-year. Pod counts for soybeans were near the 3-year average. “10 stops along my route in southwest Minnesota. Not a single corn field looked good from the road, and that largely held true inside. Corn was yellow and uneven everywhere.”   Iowa corn yield at 192.79 bu/acre, a to

Highlights ProFarmer Tour 2024 results for Illinois were up 5.4% year-on-year, topping the old tour high of 196.96 from 2014. USDA sees it up 9%. Pod counts for soybeans were the tour's highest since 2000 and up nearly 12% the previous year. USDA has up 5%.  Three districts of Iowa show mostly strong potential in western Iowa. But NW corn yields were the tour's lowest since at least 2016, too much early rain. Arlen Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX, commented:

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, August 20 , 2024: September corn settled yesterday at $3.75, -1¼¢ since last Tuesday. December corn se

Highlights Pro Farmer Nebraska corn yield is up from last year but below 2021's 182.35 record yield. Pod counts for soybeans are a 3 year high though below the 1200+ pods seen in 2018-2021. PFT member Ted Seifried said after 7th stop in Butter Co, Nebraska: “I have been seeing ear worms on almost every stop of the tour but they seem to be getting worse. The yield check on this field was 230.9’ but I also calculated an average of 70 ear worms in a 30’ row.”   Pro Farmer Indian

Highlights ProFarmer Tour field comments Monday:   Average pod counts for soybeans in a 3x3 foot plot in northeast Nebraska (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties) on the pftour24 (Pro Farmer tour 2024). Same route as past years through four stops: 2024: 1003 2023: 1295 (1 irrigated) 2022: 1200 (1 irrigated) 2021: 1057   Four stops in northeast Nebraska on pftour24 (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties). Corn yield has averaged (in bu/acre) on this exact route through four stops in the last f

Highlights Weekend weather was hotter and much drier than predicted in the Eastern Corn Belt where there is no subsoil moisture. West Central Ohio, the past two months, has received very light widely scattered showers 2 to 4 times a week, just enough to keep the corn and beans looking pretty good, but not nearly enough to keep the crops looking good if those light, scattered showers do not fall for 5 days.    The Washington Post reported yesterday Ukraine and Russia were set

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 40,660, +1,162.22 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $76.6, -0.38. Dollar Index  settled at 102.4, -0.75. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,691, +21 for the week. Corn September futures  at $3.70½, -6¼¢ for the week. Basis   (U = Sept; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over September futures) (Futures price + Basis = C

Tidbits The 3-day ProFarmer tour starts on Tuesday and will cover OH, IN, IL, IA, SD, NE and MN. State yield estimates will be issued each day. ProFarmer will release its own US national yield estimates on Friday. Out of the past 10 years, ProFarmer's corn yield estimate has been below USDA's final yield by an average of 1.5% and soybean estimates averaged 2.6% below USDA’s final yield. In 2023, Pro Farmer's corn yield estimate was 168.1 bpa vs. USDA's final 177.3 (5.0% under

Highlights After gaining more than $3 on Monday, then losing $2.62 the next two days before gaining $1.15 on Thursday, crude oil prices fell more than $2.50 before recovering about a buck on Friday when China's Premier Li Qiang said great efforts must be made to boost the faltering economy. China’s economic data Friday morning (on Thursday night Eastern time) showed China's economy had “lost momentum” with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights DTN lead analyst, Todd Hultman, said on August 12 during a webinar about S&D report: “Speculators in the corn market have been encouraged  to hold onto their short positions by the Federal Reserve Board, which is trying to keep prices in check by increasing interest rates… You would think we’re getting down to the lows here somewhere, but technically of course we’re not seeing any signs of that just yet.” Here is Sean Pratt’s summary  for the webinar.   The Consume

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, August 13 , 2024: September corn settled yesterday at $3.76¼, -12½¢ since last Tuesday. December corn