BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat   23 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -4 Nov beans +3 Sept CBOT wheat -1...

Highlights The US CPI data (inflation at retail level) for August +0.2% as expected. For the past 12 months, the CPI was up 2.5%, slightly less than the expected 2.6%. However, what the government calls the “core” CPI was up 0.3% in August, which was more than the expected 0.2% and core inflation was up 3.2% for the past 12 months, which was as expected, but well above the Fed’s target of 2%.   As a result of the CPI numbers, the interest rate markets show the odds of a half

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, September 10 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.04¼, -5¢ since last Tuesday. The past 7 day

Highlights The U.S. Gulf Coast is bracing for the tropical storm Francine. It is expected to become a category 2 hurricane and make landfall in Louisiana this evening according to the National Hurricane Center. Crude oil, natural gas facilities, and barge loading/unloading operations have been scaling back and evacuating some sites.   Francine's track is expected to move up the Mississippi River into Southern Illinois. As it heads north, the winds will slow down to mid-40 mph

Highlights A developing tropical storm that is expected to track through the Gulf of Mexico and hit parts of Texas and Louisiana by Thursday will hit 60% of the US refining capacity and a large percentage of off-shore drilling and pumping platforms.   Colombian rebels have renewed their war on that nation’s oil industry with a wave of pipeline attacks that sent crude spilling into rivers and clouds of black smoke billowing into the sky. The National Liberation Army is reactiv

Highlights OPEC+ will not increase crude oil production beginning October first as planned now that crude oil prices are well below $70 a barrel. The production increase has been postponed until December.      Inflation numbers to be reported today in China are expected to show that annual consumer inflation in China accelerated to 0.7% in August from 0.5% in July, which would be welcome news as China’s fight against deflation continues. Factory product prices were down 1.4%

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 40,345, -1,217.67 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $68.16, -5.49. Dollar Index  settled at 101.19, -0.54. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,941, +127 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.06¼, +5¼¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = C

Market Comment After 4 to 6 days of gains, corn, wheat, and beans all closed lower Friday, which is a down day if the markets had been decided higher in the days before Friday. Traders know a lot of things can change over a weekend.   If you are looking for a place or time to get long futures or call options, this is the week to probably do that. The USDA S&D on Thursday at 11 Am Central time usually causes the market to trade lower in the days before the report. The coming S

Highlights All the weakness in crude oil prices is based upon the gloom and doom predictions for the worlds’ economy, most especially China’s economy, whose industrial PMI for September was 50.4, up 0.6 from July. As far as the US economy goes, who thinks lower interest rates coming in less than two weeks will slow down economic growth?   Goldman Sachs cut its expected crude oil price range by $5 a barrel for 2025. They expect crude to average $80 per barrel next year with a

Highlights Crude oil was supported yesterday by Saudi Arabia's decision to recommend OPEC+ postpone production increase in October. However, the worldwide doom and gloom crowd continues to bad-mouth crude oil demand.   China requested the US immediately lift the tariffs on Chinese goods. Reuters News reports President Biden is expected to decide in the coming days about increasing tariffs on Chinese products.    French wheat growers’ group predicts their soft wheat production

Highlights On Tuesday, China hit Canada with an anti-dumping probe on canola after Canada imposed 100% tariffs on China’s electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on China’s aluminum. Canola November futures traded down the $45 per mt limit on Tuesday and settled down $23.80. Yesterday, canola stayed above Tuesday’s low, but settled down another $11.20.   Many analysts are saying this could be a trick that China likes to do to drop the prices of a commodity before making a purchase

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, September 3 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.09¼, +16½¢ since last Tuesday. The past 7 da

Highlights The USDA reported the crush numbers for July: Soybean crush in July was 193 million bushels, 8 million bushels more (4.3%) than a year ago.   Corn crush was 527 million bushels, 4% more than a year ago. Corn for ethanol was 474 million bushels, also 4% more than a year ago. Canola crush was 230,516 tons, 10.1% more than a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined was 32.8 million pounds, 27% more than a year.   USDA will issue the next S&D on Thursday, 12 September. Trad

Highlights Libya has yet to resume oil exports one week after the Haftar clan blocked production in a bid to gain leverage over a battle to control the Central Bank. Six engineers told the Pan-Arab newspaper that exports remained halted at six ports although some production was being increased to feed local power generation and ease fuel shortages.   According to S&P Global, up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude output has been restored at three eastern fields under the cont

Tidbits Brazilians will pay more for electricity in September as local power regulator Aneel decided to impose an additional charge on bills due to a drop in reservoir levels at hydroelectric plants amid the country's dry season.   Dry weather across Germany has led to low water levels in the River Rhine, preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded and boosting freight rates.   Kamala Harris wants to tax “unrealized profits.” If you bought land for $5,000 and it is now

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,563, +388.00 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $73.65, -1.31. Dollar Index  settled at 101.73, +1.05. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,814, +52 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.01, +10¢ for the week. Basis   (U = Sept; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over September futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

Highlights Late Saturday afternoon, three of Libya’s oilfields received instructions to resume production, engineers at the fields told Reuters. A standoff between rival political factions shut most of the country's oil fields last week. The resumption order was made by the fields' operator, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which did not provide any reasons, according to the engineers. A struggle to control the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) sparked a blockade of oil production and

CBOT will reopen Monday evening at normal time. Tidbits Crude oil prices were more than $2 lower yesterday due to economic concerns in China and the news OPEC+ is considering increasing production in October. The Energy Information Agency reporting U.S. oil demand in June was the lowest seasonally since 2020 added selling pressure. Note that Libya’s daily crude oil production is down 700,000 barrels per day from a week ago and expected to be down 1.1 million bpd next week.  

Highlights Most markets except financials will be closed on Monday, September 2, due to the Labor Day holiday. Trade will resume Monday evening. The U.S. Department of Commerce revised second quarter GDP up 0.2% to +3.0% of growth. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was +1.4%. Consumer spending rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus 1.5% in the first quarter 2024. U.S. jobs figures yesterday show the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits slipped last week, bu