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Tidbits, Wheat Prices & Reco, Markets & Rain Days Update 1/14/23

Questions & Answers


Question received early AM January 11th, 2023:


"Good morning Roger. You had a nice write up on Kansas City wheat futures. What are your thoughts on Chicago? I locked in a 1.25 basis for March delivery on 50k bushel. I still have 75k bushel beyond that 50k that I have not locked in anything (basis or futures) currently the Portland Oregon basis is around 80 cents for March and today's cash price is around $8.20."

Roger’s Replied early AM January 12th, 2023 (before USDA Reports):


Good morning, Greg,

I am fundamentally very bullish all three classes of wheat. Soft wheat is now, by far, the cheapest after being substantially higher than hard red winter for most of the past five years or so. Before that, very rarely was the soft red winter price ever premium to hard red.

My problem is the 30+ year seasonal chart shows the wheat price trend turns down in the middle of January. A few days ago, we sent the five-year wheat price trend from Moore's and it was up into the third week of March.

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