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Tidbits, Weather in Brazil, Bird Flu, Birth Rate 4/28/24

Highlights


Southwest KS and OK missed yesterday's rains. There is another chance on Sunday but coverage over the western half is light at best.

 

Dr. Michael Cordonnier’s end of the week comments:

"The earliest planted corn in Mato Grosso should be ready to start harvesting by mid-May. It was planted generally a week or more earlier than normal because of the early soybean harvest. Safrinha corn yields in Mato Grosso will be variable, but generally good.

 

Brazilian farmers are also keeping a close eye on corn leafhopper numbers that have increased 280% over the last two years. The insects can transmit corn stunt disease, which has become more common in safrinha corn, but the impact is still minor compared to the catastrophe developing in Argentina corn.

 

Soybeans in Argentina were rated 23% poor/very poor, 47% fair, and 30% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is down 1% from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 20% short/very short, 78% favorable/optimum, and 2% saturated."

 

Mato Grosso is Brazil’s top safrinha corn producer. Note the day-time high temperatures and rainfall amounts expected as of last evening for Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso:


Paraná is Brazil’s second leading safrinha corn producing state. The weather outlook for Londrina, Paraná: 


The weather outlook for Campo Grande, in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil’s 3rd leading safrinha corn state:

 

Tidbits


Stocks shrugged off the news that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge was too hot last month. Strong earnings reports from Big Tech pushed their stocks higher Friday, giving the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 their best week since November. Google parent Alphabet had its best day since July 2015 after showing that some of its AI investments are already paying off and teeing up its first-ever dividend. It looks like the business community expects the Fed will print more money to stimulate the economy and worry about inflation after the presidential election.   

 

Bird flu in milk has gotten a lot of publicity in recent weeks. About 20% of the samples of pasteurized milk tested recently contained virus fragments, according to the FDA, meaning bird flu is more common on dairy farms than previously thought.

 

However, the FDA says these fragments are not live viruses, meaning the pasteurization process is doing its job of killing off anything swimming around in there that could be harmful to humans. The FDA reported late Friday preliminary results from “gold-standard” PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula.

 

Supposedly, there have been two very mild cases of humans in the US contracting bird flu from dairy cattle. One had contact with infected cows; the second said he was never around cows. Question: How does anyone know he got the bird flu from dairy cattle?

 

The World Trade Organization (WTO) will resume negotiations on fixing its dispute settlement system by the end of 2024 after they overcame difficulties in choosing a chief negotiator.

 

The aim is to replace and reform the trade watchdog's appeals court, which has been mothballed since 2019 because of opposition to judge appointments by the United States. This has left more than 30 trade disputes unresolved.

 

Baker Hughes reported there were 613 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That was 6 less than the previous week and 142 less than a year ago. Canada had 118 rigs drilling last week, 9 less than the previous week, but 25 more than a year ago.

 

In 2023, ~3.6 million babies were born in the US, which is the smallest number of births since 1979 when there were ~100 million fewer people in the USA. The 2023 fertility rate at 1.62 births per woman, the lowest birth rate since the government began tracking 92 years ago.


 

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Market Data


Corn futures in China is ¥2,396 per mt, it's $8.39 per bu., -5¢ for the week.

 

Soybean futures in China is ¥4,651 per mt, it's $17.46 per bu., +6¢ for the week.


 

Rain Days Update


The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

Explanation of Rain Days


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