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Tech Guy Weekend Comments for 9/17/22

Below is a part of this weeks Commitment of Traders report  - the short version of the Sep 13th publication. Notice the funds bought 11,468 and sold 609. Notice how the commercials bought 14,420 and sold 25,018. Also, every trader category added contracts - big interest.

Roger confirmed for me this means the merchants bought and sold the same quantity of physical soybeans during the reporting week - this is a lot of movement - normally if the funds buy 11,000 contracts, the commercials will sell about 11,000 (similar amount) and commercials are close to flat on the buy side (maybe +/-  negative or positive 2000-3000).

This week they bought 14,420 and sold 25,018 - the numbers that have the stars (*) this thing, in the table below.

Whenever this phenomena has happened in the past during an uptrend or correction in an uptrend, the uptrend has become stronger - big quantity of soybeans moving from producer to merchant to end user must tweak something on supply side of things - I do not know for certain. Fewer bushels in producer's hands maybe?

  SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE                                    
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 09/13/22                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| 
      NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
  LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                         OPEN INTEREST:      643,018
COMMITMENTS
 163,326   71,216   90,681  348,795  410,219  602,802  572,116   40,216   70,902

CHANGES FROM 09/06/22 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:     *36,831)
  *11,468      609    *8,581   *14,420   *25,018   34,469   34,208

Here is the CFTC link if you would like more detail about the CFTC reports.
www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacbtsf.htm

Also, I noticed this week that open interest went up a lot on Mon, Tues, and Wed (this information is released everyday on www.cmegroup.com ) even though Tues and Wed were down days - this sustained big "interest" in beans told me on Tuesday and Wednesday That Monday's rally was a true impulse up - meaning that the funds were making a renewed commitment on the long side and commercials are wheeling and dealing.

Friday was a better Doji (open/close the same) than Thursday's bar on Nov Beans daily chart- this usually means a change of direction day.

I rarely know beforehand where exactly support and resistance are going to be on a chart but I can eventually find it. There is a red horizontal line across the July 10th swing high on the Nov Bean chart that caught the support of beans on this weeks correction. The note says, "This high supported prices this week".

The Dec Corn low today was another horizontal line (red) found on the daily continuation chart starting from the high on the day the liquidity/volume moved from the July to the December contract.


The main point to take home this week is sustained higher highs and lows for Dec Corn and Nov Soybeans = uptrend in force.


Dec Wheat backfilled to just below the gap (unfinished business) at 841 and then rallied 35 cents to close up +13.50 on the day - in the middle of the range for the week. Now, Dec Wheat should be more free to mark higher prices next week.


Disclaimer: I know very little about how websites function. When I pasted the CFTC data at the top of the page it transferred some different kind of font - this is why there are different looking letters today.