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Tech Guy Weekend Comments 12/11/22

No Opening calls tonight - family commitment. Thank you.


Do you remember the 35 day cycle in corn and soybeans? Last Wednesday was the 35 day mark on the continuous daily chart of corn. This day also happened to be the swing low in March Corn last week - this cycle must then still be working!


This 35 day cycle +/- 4 days has been working almost a year now and has consistently marked a swing high or low. Here is the daily corn continuation chart with notes.


Here is a zoomed in version of the March Corn 30 min chart showing the higher highs and lows which is bullish. The very basics of technical analysis is really this simple - not easy, however.


Friday's low (labeled E) of 730.75 needs to hold support for a good double bottom to be in place on the daily March Wheat chart. Wheat may have to test the low at 723.75, but I'm looking for Friday's low to hold. Notice how the lower parallel line on the 30 min March Wheat chart functions as support.


The red horizontal line at 1508.75 on the soybean continuation chart (March contract) is the top of an ascending triangle pattern forming on the chart. This is current resistance and beans will need to break up through this line in order for the rally to accelerate (become more steep).


The March Bean Chart also exhibits an equilateral triangle in which price has already broken up and out of. For this reason, I believe the rally will continue with only small backfills along the way. Monday is the 35 day cycle mark - I think we get a small down correction to about the 1460 level in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Check out the daily Bean ascending triangle on the continuation chart followed by the March contract chart with both triangles drawn.



The March Soybean up move is being lead by Jan & March Soybean Meal (Roger may disagree about who is leading who), which has traded 8 straight up days - it will eventually backfill somewhat.


Jan Crude Oil Update: Almost all old long positions are being flushed out of the market in crude. I have been talking about a bottom formation in the works for at least 2 weeks. Crude has had 6 straight down days - this very rarely happens - the sentiment is extremely bearish. This extreme negative sentiment will make the eventual rally stronger.


On Friday the Jan Crude Oil Daily chart also marked a Doji bar (open & close very near one another) which adds to the argument of a turn upwards in crude. Here is the Daily Jan Crude chart showing all the consecutive down days and the Doji from Friday. Often times a Doji bar will be the actual low. Let's see if the fund buyers show up Monday.








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