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Tech Guy Weekend Comments 1/7/23

The daily March Soybean Meal chart began making new contract highs on December 6th and has continued this action of higher highs and lows ever since. The soymeal continuation chart (daily of the weekly) made a higher high on December 30th, then another new high yesterday.

This price action is bullish, despite the funds being record long. Also, the South American season is at a critical make or break point - If Argentina and southern Brazil don't begin having timely rain, production will decline in a more drastic fashion.

Here are both the daily March contract and continuation contract of the Soymeal charts. Notice the critical levels on the continuation chart with regard to the 2021 & 2022 highs and how they both broke out to the upside on 12/6.

March Soybeans recovered nicely on Friday, rallying 21 cents to close at 1492. The January contract which represents the cash market because it's in the delivery period, rallied almost 35 cents yesterday - somebody needs physical beans badly. This represents an up +14 on the day on the Jan/March spread, which is bullish.

This bean chart just completed a 3 day correction in a steady up trend and I believe the next up leg has begun. Yesterday, beans bought back up to the small blue uptrend line. See what you think.

Although March Wheat's price action was disappointing yesterday as far as a rally, it still marked a higher high in a small inverted head & shoulders pattern which projects about 775.

I expect higher prices next week where 770 will be tested first. Sometimes it will take a day or 2 for a market to get moving the other direction after a Doji day. The bears are still holding on to hope. Check out the pattern.

The March Corn chart's price action was very similar to wheat - a small range day after a Doji which formed a small inverted head & shoulders, pointing to higher prices. Corn's fate is not different than beans with regard to the South American season - the situation is not conducive to trendline yields.

Here is the wider view of corn, showing the last 10 months and the 730 target up above (larger head & shoulders) which closes the big void caused by July Corn rolling to December last year.

The Feb Crude Oil contract followed corn and wheat in that it marked a small range day forming the right shoulder.

March S&P has traded in a narrow/sideways channel since December 12th. Friday's trade rallied up to the top of that channel on monthly employment data . I believe it will attempt to breakout to the upside on Monday. I want you to notice the blue downtrend line moving left to right - see how it provided resistance at first then it became support as time ticked by.


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