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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Weekend Update 5/14/23

July Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher

July Corn - 3 to 4 Lower

July Beans - 1 to 2 Lower

Update on the weekly cattle chart:

In the last 3 to 4 weeks, cattle has been consolidating in ledge (range) just a few points below the double top high. As a reminder, the cattle market is trading in the upper 10% of prices over the last 15 years. Could they trade higher?

Sure, but at these prices, one may find opportunity. Check out the current weekly cattle chart.

July Soymeal update:

After the big green up day on Thursday that confirmed the Doji-star pattern reversal up, the funds continued to follow through buy on Friday. This resulted in another green up bar.

The main point here is that Friday's trade added even more confidence to the fact that Soymeal is beginning a new uptrend. Check out the updated continuation (July) meal chart.

Market analysis is always a level of probability where we can estimate a percentage %, but never know the exact number and it's never 100%. Let me break it down in this case with July Soymeal -

On Wednesday's Doji star bar, the probability was about 75% certainty that the low would be in place for a significant amount of time. Then, on Thursday's big green up bar bumped the number to 85-90%. Then Friday bumped it a few more percentage points. You get the idea.

On Friday, July Soybean's sold off to nearly test Thursday's low to continue building in a good base for prices to rally - 80-90%. It is easier to pick out support levels on the daily charts than on the intraday (1-4 hour bars).

Additionally, soymeal's strength will add support to the idea that beans will also rally very soon, because meal is the largest byproduct of beans on a percentage basis. Here is Friday's daily continuation (July) Bean chart - the basing pattern is highlighted in the oval area - pattern is 13 days old.

November Soybeans is weaker than July, August and September and within 5 cents of a 10 month double bottom. The larger the pattern (number of day's), the higher the confidence. This means that the bean board is becoming more inverted - this is very bullish for soybeans overall - medium term - (weeks to months). Take a look at the November contract.

July Corn has also been building out a base (bottom). You will see that corn is also very close to a large double bottom. The fund bulls have been frontrunning the July low because they are too eager to buy.

Why not wait for 561 to buy? Too much demand and they do not want to be left out of the market. Check out the July continuation daily corn.

December Corn is nearing 500 which is a psychological support level.

The corn board is also continuing to accelerate it's inversion. By the way, in corn as well as beans, the strongest spread charts (inversions) are the front month minus the next month - a sense of urgency even though it seems to be taking forever to us humans. Markets have their own clocks.

I will update wheat tomorrow - July continues to build out the right shoulder.

June Crude Oil Update:

I am confident about crude's 63.64 low and it has been building out a ledge on the spike and ledge pattern. Support is 69.85 and lower at 67.50. Here is a zoomed in crude so you can see the pattern.


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