Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower
Sep Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
Dec Corn - 4 to 6 Higher
Nov Beans - 8 to 12 Higher
The corn and soybean markets can ignore weather and declining crop conditions for only so long, then reality has to eventually catch up.
The July 22nd-25th / 35-38 day cycle did not disappoint. Dec Corn closing nearly on the low tick, down -10 cents to 562 on Friday then gapping up last night to 574 while holding 570 is quite a tide turner.
I already have August 29th marked on my charts - should be a swing high. Is Dec corn going up 80 cents from here? $1.75? We don't know that yet. However, this is a good start in my book.
Soybeans (all contracts) are decidedly stronger than corn. The November contract has a good chance of a new contract high. There is still up pressure on the daily and weekly soybeans that still has to be released. This pressure was created clear back on May 9th.
The weekly ranges in both corn and beans have been large for 5 weeks now - 60-80 cents in Dec Corn, $1.00 plus in Nov Soybeans. Based on this DNA (energetic characteristic) it is reasonable for this week's bar to also be in those ranges - puts Dec Corn up to 620-630 and Nov Beans 1415-1425 area. These are my targets by Friday or Monday.
The weekly crop progress report by NASS should give a boost: Corn Good/Excellent ratings were down 3%, Poor/Very poor up 3% - all these acres came from the GE acres from last week - seems like rapid decline. Soybeans GE down 2%, PVP up 1%.
Poor/very poor acres usually comes from the middle (fair) category - this weeks fall in corn ratings has my attention. These numbers were 2% below expectations in corn and 1 for beans.
The hardest hit states compared to last year are CO, IN, KS, KY, MI, NC, NE, PA, OH, TN, and TX. LA is the hardest hit state for soybeans, with GE ratings down 12% from last year. You can see these areas on the satellite maps
here.
