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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 7/13/22

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher

Sep Corn - 1 to 3 Higher

Dec Corn - 2 to 3 Higher

Nov Beans - Steady

The updated NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast was virtually unchanged today. It forecasts 1 more day into the future. Therefore today's update is good through July 27 on the 8-14 day and it says excess heat and below normal rainfall for most of the corn belt.

I would imagine a good balance of the corn belt will be silking and pollinating by then so this forecast could be threatening enough to get the funds attention to buy more to add risk premium, particularly in corn.

That being said Nov Beans, Dec Corn and Sep Crude oil all have similar patterns working - a W or double bottom. When the grains test the neckline (Sun night highs), if the forecast is still hot and dry, the fund buying should propel price towards the targets laid out below in the next paragraph.

The W in Dec Corn projects a price target of 752. You add the leg up on to the high Sunday night and project that upward. The leg ending Sun night went to 658.5 and was 94 cents long. The Math is 658 + 94 = 752 (I round down.) Plus, remember the gap at 728.75 in Dec Corn over head? It wants to get filled - This is part of the equation also.

Of course it has to trade up to 658.5 first, then if the forecast remains bullish this numbers are the most likely scenario. Do you think there is any risk premium (wiggle room for less than trendline yields) in these markets currently? Some maybe, not much if any.

The number projection for Nov Beans is price 1438.50 + 136 = 1574, and the same W pattern projection for Sep Wheat is 1095.

110 remains the number for Sep Crude.

Also, Nov Beans and Sep Crude had doji daily bars today. This is the result of the bulls and bears still being fairly evenly matched - the markets attempt to transition from selling to buying. The bears have not given up yet - this is why the retracement has been so deep.

There is the possibility any of these markets will need to test last weeks low first - a little lower from today before the rally gets going - I don't know this detail for sure.

Is anyone else looking up at these prices. I don't know. All my data says this is very possible - even the most likely scenario if the weather remains a threat. There is a lot of energy being released in the grains currently. Will it take a week, a month? Not longer than a month.

If these grains get going, it will be counter-seasonal. A trend against the seasonal can have even more energy packed in because you have the crowd/masses going along with the seasonal - they become trapped on the wrong side - this adds fuel.


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