Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 6/29/22
Sep Wheat - Steady
Sep Corn - 1 to 2 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
Aug Soybeans - 5 to 7 Lower
Nov Soybeans - Steady to 2 Lower
The November Soybeans traded very strong to December Corn again today with beans gaining about +16.5 cents and corn down about -6 cents. This price action continues to tell us that the trade expects more corn acres and fewer bean acres on the report tomorrow.
Don't be surprised if this spread unwinds some after the report release - with soybeans effectively selling off vs. Corn. I use the straight ZSX-ZCZ spread chart. It has traded between 720 - 864 since May 12th - the current rally is from 750-825 (Nov Beans gaining 75 cents to Dec Corn).
Looking for Nov Beans to backfill tonight/tomorrow: 1441 - 1435.
Overall the Dec Corn and Nov Bean charts are pointing higher over the next few days and weeks.
My target for Dec Corn is testing the old high of 766.25 or higher. The target for Nov Beans is above the recent 6/9 high of 1584.75. It is hard to explain, but the Jul, Aug and Nov Soybean charts have significant up pressure from a supply/demand line (demand is outstripping supply.
This feature has been on the dailys and weekly for several weeks. Therefore, it was difficult to see the 175 cent selloff. However, because it did sell so much - this adds to the urgency for price to go higher.
I rack my brain this time of year with weather, crop conditions, forecast, rainfall, etc, etc. Then I attempt to forget all that when looking at the charts. However I can't get the 3% drop in GE for both corn/beans out of my head. Things are deteriorating too fast this year.
If that number stays the same or accelerates next Tuesday (3-4% drop or more), watch out.
August Crude Oil Update: first support comes in at 108.75. Next support is about 106.50. I don't know which one crude will react to. There is a sense of all commodities sweeping higher together right now so I am pretty skiddish with the short side of crude.
If things don't get out of control too fast, oil should bounce around between 106-110, and then back to 114.50 then down to 102 if it can stand the weakness - for a week or so.
I will post some more charts tomorrow/this weekend.