Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 10/17/22
Dec Wheat - 2 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
Nov Beans - 6 to 8 Lower
From Saturday's comments regarding the S&P: "The buyers will need to show up on Monday - at least to shore up the support at the 3590 to 3572 area." The buyers did show up en masse today with the S&P futures up almost +100 points to 3699 and the DOW futures up almost +600.
There was more evidence today that the big money is transitioning from a risk off to more of a risk on stance with the stock indices all with very strong gains after the 62% correction on Friday.
Also, the US Dollar sold off hard today to below last Thursday's low - the key reversal day. These 2 things will ultimately be bullish for grains if the trend continues - investors and funds will be buying everything.
I expect the Dec S&P to take out last Thursday's high (1 point on chart) within a day or 2. By weeks end I expect the S&P to rally up past the high to the left (H on the chart) and work up towards the #3 point on the chart.
When counting Elliot wave (1-2-3-4-5), the 3rd wave (2nd leg up) is usually an extension of 1 (longer than 1) - here I used the length of 1 times 1.5 (Fibonacci) to get the 3 point projection. Also 3 is usually the longest wave out of the 1-2-3-4-5, especially in financials (stocks, bonds, notes, currencies, etc.) - meaning 5 will probably be shorter than 3.
The top of H is about 115 points higher - it will be interesting to see how strong the sellers are up there. The corrective 2 wave only took 1 day so after 3 is complete, 4 should only take 1 day or a Fibonacci extension in time - 1.38, 1.5, 1.62 or 2 days. 2 was a simple correction (straight down). The rule of alternation says if 2 is simple, 4 will be complex or even a triangle (A-B-C-D-E).
Here is the updated Dec S&P 2 hour chart - notice how the 3 point projection coincides with the downtrend line resistance.
The S&P is up 32 points to 3721 in currently after hours trade.
The US Dollar closed near 112.00 (down 1.294) today, after trading as high as 113.30 on Friday - we would like to see it continue selling down to 110.00 (Oct 4th low), for good follow through.
Dec Wheat traded to 855.50 today, which is directly on the lower neckline. I expect this price to hold.
Dec Corn traded down to 681 and closed near 682.25 - Remember this is the June 1st low which has been a node (support, resistance, pivot) since the end of August. Corn could trade down to 677, but the bulls should defend this price area between 682-677.Here is the Dec Corn chart again - notice the rotation around 682.
Nov Beans traded a few cents either side of unchanged today (1384) just marking time to re-charge. Support is between 1375-1365.
The week of Oct 3rd was a Doji bar on the weekly bean chart then last week price slowly worked up a small amount. I expect this week or next to be a price expanded week up - 1460-1500. I have not pinpointed it yet, but the rule of alternation says the energy has to expand after a Doji and a small range week. Here is the static weekly bean chart so you can see the last 3 bars - Doji, last week, start of this week.
Nov Crude Oil Update: since Friday oil has rotated around the lower support line between 87.15 and 84.50 - last traded 85.67. It still looks to me like crude is trying to complete the C corrective leg business in order to paint another leg up toward 92 - 94.