Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments foe 11/2/22
Dec Wheat - 1 to 3 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
Jan Beans - Steady Steady
The gaps in Dec Wheat and Corn were both closed today - so this has been quite the see-saw event. Does it mean the gap up invalidates the strength in wheat and corn? Not entirely. My best estimate says Dec Wheat will still trade higher to the neckline at 941 and then either break out from there or consolidate first (go sideways for a bit). For a slight change of perspective, here is the daily Dec Wheat chart showing today's gap fill.
With regards to Dec Corn, it remains in the narrow channel that is upsloping and will need an additional force (weather, demand or political) to propel it above and beyond the 711-712 area at the top of the channel. Check out today's Dec Corn chart with it's upsloping channel.
Dec Cotton Update: The sellers were able to take cotton down further last week and into Monday to a low of 70.21. On the weekly chart the difference between the price of 75 and 70 is a very small move - Midpoint gap targets can easily be plus or minus 5 on the weekly chart. Remember the downside gap target was about 75 on the weekly.
Monday's low at 70.21 was met with vigorous buying closing at 72.80. The pattern looks like a big letter V because it goes virtually straight down and back up. Yesterday, Dec Cotton closed limit up and limit up again today - leaving what I think is a true breakaway gap up. Therefore, I am fairly confident the low, low is actually in place.
To summarize this pattern - Monday was a spike down and back up and formed a Doji bar low. Tuesday was straight up limit up then last night the gap up occurred - closing limit up again today. This market has a lot of energy and it appears the bulls finally conquered all the bears - I would look back up to the 120 price area for a target over the next few weeks. Support is 76.52 - the top of the gap up. You will see this emphatic bottom pattern on the daily chart here - look at the last 5 daily bars on the right side of chart.
Big news from the Fed today as interest rates were jacked up again, as expected. The Dec S&P saw this action as the opportunity to correct/backfill, as I suspected would be the case. I am looking for support to kick in between 3740 and 3715. Let's give the S&P 2 to 3 more days to complete this corrective pattern.
The Elliot waves are still labeled on the chart and I added Big 1 & 2 labeling. Remember little waves are within bigger waves just like charts where you can see more detail on a 30 minute chart compared to a daily chart. Please study the updated Dec S&P chart noticing the new numbers, support and resistance lines, etc.
After a small intraday correction, the Jan Soybeans continued it's uptrend today closing up +6.75 to 1454.50 - eyeballing about 1483 for the next target above, then we will see if it can correct some from there. Dec Meal continued correcting today, but it marked a daily Doji bar indicating tomorrow will probably continue the rally up.
Dec Crude Oil also continued moving upward today closing up +.98 to 89.35 - still looking for 94 above.