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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 9/28/23

Dec Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


Nov Beans - Steady


Unlike corn, the December Wheat chart can't seem to get anything going as far as a rally or the bulls taking control. All it's doing is marking time since the last time we looked at the chart.


Furthermore, December Wheat has traded in a sideways range, except for the spike down and up defining a low, since August 18th. You know what this means - a significant amount of energy has built up.


Traders like to wait for reports to make a move, so let's see what happens tomorrow from the quarterly stocks release. Here is the 4 hour December Wheat chart. I have labeled a -d and -e leg/wave on to the right of the chart. Support is 573.


Do corn traders think the ending stocks number is going to come in on the low side? The bulls took control of December Corn last Friday and they have not let up 1 bit. Rarely do you see this kind of bold bull action before a report.


The December Corn traders pushed through the 485 support this morning and didn't let up all session, closing just shy of the 490 target. The more usual trading agenda the day before a report is an all out tug of war between bulls and bears.


A zoomed in look at the December Corn daily chart shows an impressive, steady climb out of the bottom formation. Just because the bulls maintained a firm hold today doesn't mean they are correct. The big money sometimes gets it wrong.


However, I would rather bet with them, than against. Take a look at the charts. Daily 1st, then the 2 hour, showing the impressive and corroborating breakout volume above 485. Breakouts that occur on heavy volume are more compelling. Support is 485.


The back and forth, steady, higher highs and lows price action in corn makes the bottom even more reliable because the market is taking care of business a little bit at a time. Each stairstep is a unit of business that is complete and should not need to be re-visited.

Notice the consistently high volume starting with 484.75.


Flat November Soybean price action was not as telling as December Corn was today, however the November/March bean spread could be saying something. November Beans actually lost a penny and a half on the day, but I wouldn't call the bean action bearish, as they engineered price down on the overnight, trading at 1287 near the day open, then the bulls took it back up above 1300 before the close.


The November/March bean spread sold straight down from minus 30 yesterday, bottomed at -34.25 this morning, then closed back higher to -30.5. An argument could be made that this spread capitulated.


Therefore, if the bean spread is going to rally, Flat November Bean price will probably rally - not guaranteed though. Support is 1294 - Novie beans.


Check out the bean spread 30 minute chart showing the details mentioned above.


These quarterly grain stocks reports are known for releasing a huge amount of energy in the form of price movement, so everyone hang on.

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